How the Packers can beat the Buccaneers and get to Super Bowl LV
The Green Bay Packers are the betting favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Despite losing 38-10 to the Bucs back in October, the Packers secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC with six straight wins to end the regular season and are coming off a decisive, 14-point win over the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round.
Here’s how the Packers can beat the Bucs and advance to Super Bowl LV:
Consistent pressure on Tom Brady
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Brady's splits throwing from clean pockets and under pressure are staggering. He had the NFL's eighth-best passer rating (115.1) when kept clean, but he also ranked 28th in passer rating (54.5) under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. All quarterbacks change under pressure, but we're talking about a difference of over 60 points. The caveat here: Brady wasn't under pressure much in 2020 (around 25 percent), and the Packers only pressured him on five of 27 dropbacks in the first meeting. Mike Pettine's defense must find a way to consistently disrupt Brady in the pocket or it's going to be another long afternoon. The Packers' pass-rush is starting to heat up, thanks largely to a healthy Kenny Clark and improved Rashan Gary. This defense has the front four capable of pressuring Brady without bringing much extra pressure, especially from the interior. Clark and Za'Darius Smith need to be difference-makers.
Win the turnover battle
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The Packers are 11-0 without turning the ball over, 10-0 when winning the turnover battle, 3-3 with at least one turnover, and 1-2 with at least two turnovers this season. The Buccaneers are 7-0 without turning the ball over, 8-0 when winning the turnover battle and 1-4 with at least two turnovers. Convinced yet of the power of turnovers? The first meeting turned on its head when Aaron Rodgers threw back-to-back interceptions. Last week, the Bucs used four turnovers to get past Drew Brees and the Saints in New Orleans. A late fumble recovery turned that game completely around. The team that wins the turnover battle on Sunday, especially in the cold at Lambeau Field, will have a terrific opportunity to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LV.
Handle the Bucs' blitz
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Aaron Rodgers was terrific against the blitz in 2020, producing a 112.0 passer rating while throwing 18 touchdown passes against four interceptions when teams sent extra pressure, per PFF. The anomaly was Week 6 against the Bucs. Todd Bowles sent a blitz on 21 dropbacks, creating both of Rodgers' interceptions and three sacks. Rodgers completed just six of 17 passes and had two throwaways. Linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David were especially effective as blitzers. The Packers had communication and execution lapses throughout the pass protection unit, both rarities for the group in 2020. Keeping Rodgers out of harm's way against an aggressive Bucs front must be a priority, as no quarterback was better from a clean pocket this season. The No. 12 wearing green and gold will be the star of the show if he's protected.
Protect against big plays
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No quarterback completed more passes thrown over 20 yards in the air than Brady in 2020, per PFF. Mike Evans led the way with 12 catches over 20 yards, but Rob Gronkowski (eight), Scotty Miller (six) and Chris Godwin (six) all had at least six, and Antonio Brown pitched in three in just eight games. This can be a dangerously effective vertical passing game, but the Packers have avoided giving up big plays all season and have the talent at pass-rusher and in the secondary to limit explosive opportunities down the field. Brady can dink and dunk as well as any quarterback, but the Packers' strategy has to involve forcing the Bucs to traverse the whole field in many plays without making an error.
Play on time
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Even early on in the first meeting, as the Packers drove the ball for two scores, the offense looked off. Aaron Rodgers was having to extend plays and improvise outside the pocket to extend drives. It was disjointed, and the early success faded fast. The Packers played on time and in rhythm in the passing game throughout the 2020 season, but that Sunday in Tampa Bay was a clear outlier. The Bucs were able to disguise coverages well, and when they got the two takeaways on Rodgers, his processing capability appeared to slow down considerably. Mix in the well-timed blitzes, and the Packers passing game went off the rails. Playing on time has been the single biggest factor in the progression of the offense in 2020. The passing game must be in rhythm during the rematch on Sunday. That means scheming open receivers, understand the coverages pre- and post-snap, receivers creating separation within the framework of the play and throwing decisively from the pocket without improvising. There's no better way to negate a pass-rush than playing on time. Just ask the Rams.
Get to the linebackers in the run game
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Devin White and Lavonte David were effective as blitzers in the first meeting, but they were equally as disruptive against the run, especially early. The Packers attempted to stretch the Bucs thin with perimeter runs, but White and David were simply too fast for the Packers blockers to get to and wall off at the second level. Aaron Jones finished with just 15 yards rushing, and the Bucs produced three tackles for losses against the run. Adding in more inside zone and misdirection could help the Packers get off the ground in the run game this time around. Matt LaFleur can't give his interior blockers, including center Corey Linsley, impossible blocking tasks. White and David are a unique pair who can wreck the game again if the Packers let them run free sideline to sideline.
Force more mistakes
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The Buccaneers played about as clean as a team can play in a big game back in Week 6. Bruce Arians' team didn't have a turnover or a penalty and didn't allow a sack. These types of negative plays can often be self-inflicted, but the opposition can also pressure a team into making mistakes. The Packers were the ones being forced into errors. Can the Bucs play another perfect game? Pressure is a real thing at this stage of the postseason, and the Packers have to make sure their visitors stay under stress. A team based in Florida that hasn't played a cold-weather game this season could be prone to more mistakes in the rematch.
