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Pac-12 women’s bubble watch: USC’s position remains solid with 3 weeks left

The USC Trojans split two games this past week against the Arizona schools. They didn’t get the sweep, but they won the game they absolutely had to win, beating Arizona State on Friday. A loss to ASU would have been a disaster, given that the Sun Devils are winless in the Pac-12. A loss to the Devils would have created a major dent in the Trojans’ NCAA Tournament resume. They avoided that worst-case scenario.

Despite the loss to Arizona, the Trojans sit on solid ground with three weeks — six games — left in the regular season, plus the Pac-12 Tournament.

Their remaining six games are at home against the Oregon schools, at the Bay Area schools, and home against the Washington schools.

What is the bubble outlook for USC and the rest of the Pac-12 bubble?

First, let’s point out that Oregon has lost five of six games. The Ducks play USC next, and both teams might be on the same seed line at this point, probably a No. 8 seed. If USC beats Oregon, it might become a higher seed than the Ducks in the NCAA Tournament.

Washington State won the game it had to win this past weekend against Cal. Oregon State got swept by Utah and Colorado, effectively ending the Beavers’ hopes of getting an at-large bid.

USC and Oregon probably need three wins (including the Pac-12 tourney) to be locks for the NCAA Tournament. They must win twice; whether they need a third win is the real question. If they both get three wins, they should be fine, though if they play in the Pac-12 Tournament, they might need to avoid a loss in a first-round game, so technically, USC or Oregon might need a fourth win (but against inferior opposition).

Washington State needs three wins to become a lock; the Cougars could get in the field with two wins, but three would enable them to breathe a lot easier. Washington State is probably a 10 seed in the projected bracket right now.

The bottom line for USC: If it can sweep the Oregon schools at home this week, it will have one foot in the door of the NCAA Tournament. Lock status wouldn’t be very far away.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire