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Oscars Predictions: Best Original Song – ‘Trial of the Chicago 7’ Gives Daniel Pemberton His Oscar Shot

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

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2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG

UPDATED: Mar. 4, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Have we arrived at the moment in time where 11-time Oscar-nominee Diane Warren is going to win an Oscar? After walking away with the Golden Globe for “Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead,” it’s looking good for the overdue singer-songwriter. Interesting note, the last time she won a Globe (for the film “Burlesque”), she failed to get nominated by the Academy. Leslie Odom Jr shows strength to become the first male double nominee for acting and song, following in the footsteps of Mary J. Blige and Cynthia Erivo. “Judas and the Black Messiah” has gained momentum in the last few weeks and feels safe for a spot, especially as Grammy week begins during Oscar voting. That leaves two open spots that could be occupied by the vocals of Celeste and Yeri Han. “Husavik” also has the support that could get it to the finish line.

WATCH RECOMMENDATIONS BEFORE VOTING: All of them? Yes, all of them. Watch the entire film, how the song captures the essence of the story and resonates, rather than in the context of a three-minute clip of the song.

PRECURSORS LEADER:
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar


AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)
    "Io Si (Seen)" (Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 11 nominations (most recently for "I'm Standing With You" from 2019's "Breakthrough")

    DIRECTOR: Edoardo Ponti
    SYNOPSIS
    : In seaside Italy, a Holocaust survivor with a daycare business takes in a 12-year-old street kid who recently robbed her..
    STARRING
    : Sophia Loren, Ibrahima Gueye

  2. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
    "Speak Now" (Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Regina King
    SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
    STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr., Joaquina Kalukango, Nicolette Robinson

  3. "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)
    "Fight for You" (written by H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas.)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Shaka King
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
    STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

  4. "Minari" (A24)
    "Rain Song" (Written by Emile Mosseri, Stefanie Hong)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING:Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  5. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)
    "Hear My Voice (Written by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

NEXT IN LINE:

  1. "All In: The Fight for Democracy" (Amazon Studios)
    "Turntables" (Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Liz Garbus, Lisa Cortés
    SYNOPSIS: The documentary takes a look at the history, and current activism against voter suppression; barriers to voting that most people don't even know is a threat to their basic rights as citizens of the United States.
    STARRING: Stacey Abrams, Debo Adegbile, Jayla Allen

  2. "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga" (Netflix)
    "Húsavík" (Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson, fat max Gsus)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: David Dobkin
    SYNOPSIS: When aspiring musicians Lars (Will Ferrell) and Sigrit (Rachel McAdams) are given the opportunity of a lifetime to represent their country at the world's biggest song competition, they finally have a chance to prove that any dream worth having is a dream worth fighting for.
    STARRING: Will Ferrell, Rachel McAdams, Pierce Brosnan, Dan Stevens, Mikael Persbrandt, Olafur Darri Olafsson, Graham Norton, Melissanthi Mahut, Demi Lovato

  3. "Belly of the Beast" (Independent Lens)
    "See What You've Done" (Written by Mary J. Blige, Darhyl Camper, Jr., Denisia Andrews and Brittany Coney)

    OSCAR HISTORY:
    Blige - 2 nominations (2017's "Mudbound" in supporting actress and original song)


    DIRECTOR: Erika Cohn
    SYNOPSIS: When an unlikely duo discovers a pattern of illegal sterilizations in women's prisons, they wage a near impossible battle against the Department of Corrections.
    STARRING: Cynthia Chandler, Kelli Dillon, Corey G. Johnson

  4. "Giving Voice" (Netflix)
    "Never Break" (John Legend, Nasri Atweh, Benjamin Hudson McIldowie, Greg Wells, John Stephens)

    OSCAR HISTORY:
    Legend - 1 nomination, 1 win ("Glory" from "Selma" in best original song in 2014)


    DIRECTOR: James D. Stern, Fernando Villena
    SYNOPSIS: This film follows the annual August Wilson Monologue competition and the thousands of high schoolers who enter the competition for the opportunity to perform on Broadway..
    STARRING: Viola Davis, Denzel Washington, Gerardo Navarro

  5. "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)
    "Wuhan Flu" (Written by Sacha Baron Cohen, Erran Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer, Jena Friedman, Jim Russell, Jerry Holleman)
    -
    OSCAR HISTORY:
    : Baynham, Cohen. Hines, Mazer: 1 nomination

    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
    "Green" (written by Abraham Marder)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
    SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
    STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff

  2. "Mulan" (Disney Plus)
    "Loyal Brave True" (Written by Jamie Hartman, Harry Gregson-Williams, Rosi Golan, Billy Crabtree)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Niki Caro
    SYNOPSIS: A young Chinese maiden disguises herself as a male warrior in order to save her father.
    STARRING: Yifei Liu, Donnie Yen, Gong Li, Tzi Ma, Jet Li, Jason Scott Lee, Yosan An, Rosalind Chao

  3. "The One and Only Ivan" (Disney Plus)
    "Free" (written by Diane Warren)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 11 nominations (most recently for "I'm Standing With You" from 2019's "Breakthrough")

    DIRECTOR: Thea Sharrock
    SYNOPSIS: A gorilla named Ivan tries to piece together his past with the help of an elephant named Ruby as they hatch a plan to escape from captivity..
    STARRING: Bryan Cranston, Sam Rockwell, Phillipa Soo, Chaka Khan, Mike White, Angelina Jolie, Helen Mirren, Danne DeVito, Ron Funches

  4. "Mr. Soul!" (Shoes in the Bed Productions)
    "Show Me Your Soul" (music by Robert Glasper. lyrics by Muhammad Ayers)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Melissa Haizlip, Sam Pollard
    SYNOPSIS: Before Oprah, before Arsenio, there was Mr. SOUL. Ellis Haizlip ensures the Revolution will be televised with "SOUL!," America's first "Black Tonight Show..
    STARRING: None

  5. "Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey" (Netflix)
    "Make It Work" (written by John Stephens)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: David E. Talbert
    SYNOPSIS: Set in the gloriously vibrant town of Cobbleton, the film follows legendary toymaker Jeronicus Jangle whose fanciful inventions burst with whimsy and wonder. But when his trusted apprentice steals his most prized creation, it’s up to his equally bright and inventive granddaughter — and a long-forgotten invention — to heal old wounds and reawaken the magic within.
    STARRING: Forest Whitaker, Madelen Mills, Keegan-Michael Key, Hugh Bonneville, Ricky Martin, Phylicia Rashad, Anika Noni Rose

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
††† = official eligible nominees not yet determined by AMPAS

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.


Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)


About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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