New Orleans Saints fantasy football average draft position roundup
The New Orleans Saints have helped win a lot of fantasy football leagues in recent years, but it’s going to be fascinating to see how the next era works out without Drew Brees running the offense. Outside of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, there isn’t much high-end talent available for fantasy team managers this season.
One way of managing offseason expectations is checking in on average draft position (ADP), which is the aggregated results of many different fantasy football team drafts and mock drafts over the course of the year. Each player’s selection from every scenario is averaged out to see where they’re being selected compared to their peers. It’s a useful tool.
So let’s run through the latest figures and see where various Saints players clock in. Keep in mind that these rankings are based off of standard scoring projections, not points per reception (PPR) or other variants.
Alvin Kamara - Overall 4 - RB4
This should be no surprise. Kamara has been the engine powering the Saints offense in recent years, which was broadcast far and wide last season as injuries put every single receiver on the roster out of action at some point or another. Kamara is even more valuable in PPR leagues given how often he's targeted in the passing game, though some fantasy analysts are worried his production could drop off with the less-accurate Taysom Hill throwing at him. Other first-round running backs: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Derrick Henry (Titans), and Jonathan Taylor (Colts).
Michael Thomas - Overall 32 - WR9
Thomas carries one of the more curious storylines to follow in training camp. Has he recovered from his ankle injury? If so, he'll certainly lead the team in passing targets again, and he's played well enough with enough different quarterbacks to justify confidence in a strong rebound year. If not, well, this trepidation and fringe-top 10 expectations feel warranted. Some other receivers going in this range include Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Keenan Allen (Chargers), Allen Robinson (Bears), and Terry McLaurin (Washington).
Latavius Murray - Overall 123 - RB43
Murray is a solid handcuff candidate to managers who picked Kamara earlier, though they may want to wait later and see if he's still available. Anyone drafting Murray is either in a deep league or expecting him to get the lion's share of touches if Kamara misses time, which was the case in 2019's frustrating season for the young superstar. Other running backs being drafted around this spot: Gus Edwards (Ravens), Jamaal Williams (Lions), Tony Pollard (Cowboys), and J.D. McKissic (Washington).
Taysom Hill - Overall 161 - QB24
Hill doesn't feel like the favorite to win the starting gig under center, but maybe fantasy football team managers are banking on his upside as a runner to help him find scoring opportunities whether he gets the nod or not. Projected 2021 stat line: 123.9 completions for 1,302 passing yards, 7.6 passing touchdowns against 4.9 interceptions with 396.5 rushing yards and 4.5 touchdown runs. 131.8 fantasy points A few other quarterbacks to watch here include Cam Newton (Patriots), Zach Wilson (Jets), Derek Carr (Raiders), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Washington), and Daniel Jones (Giants).
Jameis Winston - Overall 180 - QB30
Can Winston finally cut down on the negative plays and live up to his potential after a change of scenery? Fantasy managers don't seem to think so, preferring a couple dozen other quarterbacks ahead of him. Maybe it's to their detriment. But he has a lot of doubters to win over. Projected 2021 stat line: 250.7 completions for 2,835 passing yards, 19.4 passing touchdowns against 12.7 interceptions with 162.3 rushing yards and 0.9 touchdown runs. 179.9 fantasy points Other available quarterbacks in this range: Jared Goff (Lions), Sam Darnold (Panthers), and Mac Jones (Patriots).
Adam Trautman - Overall 190 - TE21
For all the buzz about a breakout season for him, the "Big Fish" is looking like a sleeper. Which makes sense considering his modest receiving numbers in 2020. He'll need to make an unprecedented jump to justify the hype, but he'll have an equally-unprecedented number of opportunities to draw looks on top of the Saints' depth chart. Other tight ends to watch here: Jared Cook (Chargers), Austin Hooper (Browns), and Anthony Firkser (Titans).
New Orleans Saints DST - Overall 198 - DST11
The Saints will be rotating three different first-round defensive ends at two spots, so at some point the sacks have to start piling up, right? Things took a hit with David Onyemata's suspension and the anxieties over potential discipline for Marshon Lattimore might limit the turnovers ceiling in New Orleans. If you aren't streaming your defense each week, maybe keep expectations grounded by picking the Saints. A few other defenses available here: New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Wil Lutz - Overall 206 - K8
Lutz is nothing if not consistent, though he did have an ugly streak of misses last season. That's probably why he's ranked so low among his peers. The Saints bet on a rebound by restructuring his contract (tying him closer to their cap constraints in future years) and maybe so should you. Other options at kicker: Rodrigo Blankenship (Colts), Tyler Bass (Bills), Daniel Carlson (Raiders), and Ryan Succop (Buccaneers).
Tre'Quan Smith - Overall 217 - WR75
This feels low for Smith, but I get the trepidation. He hasn't consistently threatened defenses up to this point and hasn't been much more than a red-zone threat. But I'm in the camp excited to see if Smith's potential to make plays downfield can be uncorked by a bigger-armed quarterback than he had in Drew Brees. Maybe this is a value pick. A handful of alternative receivers still available: Denzel Mims (Jets), Darius Slayton (Giants), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), Parris Campbell (Colts), and Emmanuel Sanders (Bills).
Deonte Harris - Overall 299 - WR96
Unless you're playing in a very, very deep league with a dozen or more teams, Harris probably won't be on your radar. He's buried on the Saints depth chart right now despite the growth he made as a playmaker on offense last year. Maybe he takes another step forwards in 2021. It's a grab bag of receivers still on the board here: David Moore (Panthers), Tim Patrick (Broncos), Rashard Higgins (Browns), Randall Cobb (Texans), and Devin Funchess (Packers)
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