NCAAF Oregon vs. USC: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 6 Ducks vs. Trojans
There’s an interesting vibe surrounding this game between the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans heading into Saturday. These are the two biggest teams on the West Coast, and it will be the first time that they’ve played each other since 2020. However, because of the recent struggles from the Trojans, there’s a bit of a lack in fanfare prior to kick-off.
It may be the recent firing of USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch that is taking the lead spot in a list of storylines or the fact that the Trojans are already out of the College Football Playoff race after being ranked No. 6 in the nation at the start of the season. For whatever reason, though, this matchup is not receiving the hype that we’ve seen in years past.
That doesn’t mean that we are going to treat it any differently, though. While Oregon is favored to win the game. it should be highly entertaining with a pair of potent offenses. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see where the biggest advantages lie for either team.
QB Bo Nix vs. QB Caleb Williams
Breaking down the quarterback matchup based on 2023 stats:
Nix | vs | Williams |
6-3 | Ht | 6-1 |
214 | Wt | 218 |
Senior | Class | Junior |
235 | Comp | 216 |
301 | Att | 312 |
78.1 | Comp % | 69.2 |
2,723 | Yards | 2,958 |
9.0 | YPA | 9.5 |
25-2 (30 total TDs) | TD-INT | 28-4 (38 total TD) |
Edge: Caleb Williams
Analysis: It’s not often that you put another QB above Bo Nix in a head-to-head matchup, but when you’ve got the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and future No. 1 overall draft pick coming to town, I think everyone understands the decision. Bo Nix has been incredible this season, but you could argue that Williams’ stats have been better. The offense hasn’t been the problem for the Trojans, but rather it’s been the defense that has let them down the most. In a vacuum, I don’t think anyone would disagree with the notion that you’d take Williams over Nix, though it’s more of a conversation this year than it was a year ago.
Oregon RBs vs. USC RBs
Chet Strange-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the backfield matchup based on 2023 stats:
Oregon | vs | USC |
Irving | Lloyd | |
James | Jones | |
Limar | Joyner | |
208 | Att | 175 |
1,477 | Yards | 1,257 |
7.1 | YPC | 7.2 |
19 | TDs | 14 |
4 | 100-yard games | 3 |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: I feel like you can confidently say that the Oregon Ducks have a better backfield here, though it’s not by a huge margin. At the top, both Bucky Irving and Marshawn Lloyd have proven to be two of the best feature backs in the Pac-12 this season, but it’s at the RB2 spot where Jordan James gives a bit more than Austin Jones does. The Ducks are a bit more balanced, while USC is more of a pass-happy offense with Caleb Williams. It’s not a huge difference, but I’d take Oregon here.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. USC Pass Catchers
Breaking down the receiving corps based on stats from 2023:
Oregon | vs | USC |
Franklin | Washington | |
Ferguson | Rice | |
Johnson | Williams | |
206 | Target | 171 |
158 | Rec | 125 |
76.7 | Catch % | 73.1 |
2.101 | Yards | 1,929 |
13.3 | YPR | 15.4 |
22 | TDs | 21 |
Slight Edge: Oregon Ducks
Analysis: This one is really close for me. While you might look at the names for USC and think that they have better players, the numbers show that it’s Oregon who has been more productive this season, although they’ve had slightly more opportunities. Ultimately, it’s largely a toss-up, but I will side with the better overall numbers and take the Ducks.
Oregon Defenders vs. USC Defenders
Breaking down the top defenders based on stats from 2023:
Oregon (Tackles) | vs | USC (Tackles) |
Johnson (47) | Cobb (63) | |
Bassa (41) | Bullock (58) | |
Stephens IV (36) | Smith (57) | |
Williams (53) | Shaw (49) | |
Total | Team | Stats |
28 (13th) | Sacks | 11 (114th) |
54 (49th) | TFL | 24 (48th) |
8 | INT | 7 |
12 (73rd) | Turnovers | 14 (42nd) |
33.3% (22nd) | 3D% | 40.0% (79th) |
76.9% (27th) | RZ% | 95.0 (123rd) |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: This is where the matchup starts to become incredibly unbalanced. While the Oregon defense stands as one of the better units in the nation, USC’s defense is hands down one of the worst, and they just fired their defensive coordinator at long last this past weekend. The Ducks at least stand a chance of slowing down Caleb Williams and the Trojans’ offense, while the same can’t be said for USC’s defense.
When Oregon has the ball
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon | USC | ||
Passing Offense | 330.6 (4th) | 249.5 (105th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 208.1 (10th) | 186.5 (118th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 538.7 (2nd) | 436.0 (119th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 47.7 (1st) | 34.5 (121st) | Scoring Defense |
Yards Per Play | 7.4 (3rd) | 5.9 (101st) | Yards Per Play |
When USC has the ball
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
USC | Oregon | ||
Passing Offense | 326.7 (5th) | 204.6 (38th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 160.3 (63rd) | 97.1 (12th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 487.0 (8th) | 301.7 (18th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 45.5 (2nd) | 16.0 (11th) | Scoring Defense |
Yards Per Play | 7.2 (4th) | 4.6 (13th) | Yards Per Play |
Advanced Stats Breakdown
USC @ OREGON pic.twitter.com/PoElcrNTA0
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 7, 2023
Who has the edge?
Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Ducks
The two offenses in this game compare quite evenly, and in a vacuum, I think you feel comfortable with either being able to put up points at a high clip. The defenses, though, are drastically different. The Trojans give up over twice as many points per game as the Ducks, and have had no ability to stop anyone over the past month, allowing four teams to score 40-plus points on them. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense has been very solid in every aspect. That’s the major difference here to me. I can see USC’s offense scoring 28-35 points, but I don’t see their defense holding Oregon under 50.
