Oregon State vs. Houston (-7.5)
No. 12 Oregon State has continued its Cinderella run into the Elite 8 to take on No. 2 Houston. Oregon State upset Loyola-Chicago, 65-58, while Houston throttled Syracuse, 62-46.
Oregon State is 13-1 ATS (92.8%) in its past 14 games and has won its last six contests dating to the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon State has been an underdog in nine straight games and covered in eight of them. A bettor's best friend.
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Oregon State has five wins against Top 25 teams, its most in a season since the 1975-76. Houston and Oregon State met twice, but not since 2009. The Beavers are 2-0 versus the Cougars all-time.
Oregon State is holding opponents to 24.6% from three in the NCAA Tournament (35/142). They are shooting 41.7% from deep themselves (50/120).
Houston only shot 7-of-26 (26.9%) versus Syracuse and 8-of-22 (36.4%) from three against Rutgers in the last two games for 31.2% overall (15/48). A concerning number if you ask me.
Houston set a program record versus Syracuse, allowing 46 points and 28.0% from the field on 14-of-50 shooting. The Cougars hold opponents to 54.0 points per game over the last three and averaged 70.7 points themselves, despite shooting 41.1% from the field.
Comparing the two over the last three games, Oregon State is outperforming Houston in most areas.
NBC Sports Edge's Top Trends point to Oregon State. The Beavers are 18-3-1 ATS (85.7%) in its last 22 games. Since Jan. 31, after Houston earns an ATS win, they are 3-4 ATS (42.8%) in the next game. Houston is 7-3 ATS (70%) in the last 10 games overall dating back to Feb. 21. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS (90%) in that same span.
I will keep riding Oregon State and fading this Houston team against bigger squads. Houston should have lost in the second round to Rutgers but escaped.
If Houston is locked into a single-digit game with Oregon State, it will be the most demanding task they have faced since Memphis. I will buy the half-point for -115 at the +8 for Oregon State and take a small bet on the Beavers ML at +275.
Game Pick: Oregon State +8 (1.5u), Oregon State ML (0.25u)
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