Optimisitc, pessimistic and realistic expectations for LSU’s 2022 season
There are not many teams in college football entering 2022 with more uncertainty than LSU.
This season could play out in a number of ways for the Tigers, and the gap between the floor and the ceiling feels abnormally large. This team has talent, but it also has a new coach, a lot of new faces and an ongoing quarterback competition.
Any predictions made about this team should come with a caveat, and that’s why On3’s Jesse Simonton recently released his optimistic, pessimistic and realistic predictions for Year 1 of the Brian Kelly[autotag] era in Baton Rouge. Here’s how he thinks the season could potentially play out.
Optimistic: 10-2, with the Tigers talking titles for 2023. Brian Kelly’s cultural change takes effect immediately, leading a talented team to come together and win 10 games, including an upset at Texas A&M to end the year. The QB derby sorts itself out, with Jayden Daniels emerging as a superior version of the freshman who led Arizona State to a surprising season three years ago. John Emery rushes for 1,000 yards, while Kayshon Boutte, Jack Bech, Jaray Jenkins and Kyren Lacy form the SEC’s top WR room. LSU’s defensive line spearheads a unit that is Top 25 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. A secondary that starts five transfers meshes seamlessly.
Pessimistic: 4-8, losing every single toss-up game. Such dramatic change is too much for Year 1. It’s not just a new head coach, but new OC, DC, 15 transfers and a true freshman starting at left tackle. The offensive line remains a problem all season, and Kelly can’t settle on a starting quarterback. Boutte doesn’t stay healthy for the second-straight season and the Tigers still can’t run the ball (just 3.3. yards per carry in 2021). Defensively, the secondary continues to get shredded (SEC-high 29 touchdowns allowed last year).
Realistic: 7-5. The Tigers open the year with a win over Florida State in New Orleans, and the rest of September is quite manageable. Then it gets tough for the Bayou Bengals. Outside of a home-tilt with Alabama, LSU is close to a coin-flip favorite or ‘dog in the rest of its conference slate. A roster that exists in extremes has the expected highs (an awesome pass rush led by Maason Smith, Jaquelin Roy, Ali Gaye and BJ Ojulari) and lows (an OL with a freshman and several non Power-5 transfers still struggles). Multiple quarterbacks see action. The run game and secondary show signs of improvement, but not drastically enough to deliver Kelly another 8-win season in Year 1 at a new program.
A betting man would probably peg the Tigers’ finish somewhere in-between Simonton’s optimistic and pessimistic predictions, and LSU fans will hope the team can do at least slightly better than his realistic prediction. Given the brutal SEC West schedule, 7-5 is certainly a possibility, but 8-4 or 9-3 would inspire a lot more optimism heading into Year 2.
All this just goes to show how tricky it is to make about this year’s Tigers team, and we may have to wait until the season opener against Florida State in New Orleans to have any idea how this team will look in its first campaign under Kelly.
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Game-by-game predictions for the 2022 LSU football season
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