One prop bet we love for each team in the conference championships

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We’ve reached the penultimate round of the NFL playoffs with the field being whittled down to just four teams: the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

Each game is a rematch from the regular season, with the 49ers beating the Rams twice and the Bengals stunning the Chiefs in Week 17. It’s tough to predict which teams will emerge victorious on Sunday, but if you’re looking for another way to bet on the games, we’ve got you covered.

Here are four prop bets that we love this weekend, with one bet for each team. All odds are via Tipico Sportsbook.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Over 2.5 touchdown passes (-105)

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs have been in each of the last three AFC title games, so they’ve got some history and experience to bank on. Mahomes has never thrown fewer than two touchdown passes in each of those three prior conference championship games.

This is also the second time that the Chiefs will face the Cincinnati Bengals this season after facing them back in Week 17. Mahomes has seen unprecedented success in rematches this season. Not only has Kansas City won every rematch they’ve played in (DEN, LVR, PIT, BUF, LAC), Mahomes has also always thrown for at least two touchdown passes in those rematches.

Of the 70 career regular-season and postseason games Mahomes has played, he’s only thrown fewer than two touchdown passes in 20 career games. Only three of those 20 games came in postseason play.

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase: Over 85.5 receiving yards (-114)

Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase

(Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Chase said he expects the Chiefs to throw more Cover 2 and help his way after he put up 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns in Cincinnati’s Week 17 win. He’s obviously due for a regression, but the Bengals will assuredly dial up boundary patterns to get him in something resembling single coverage anyway. We’ve also seen creative usage for him on end-arounds and screens, so they’ll find ways to get the ball in his hands and he’s been a YAC monster. He has at least 109 receiving yards in each of his last four full-time starts, including consecutive 100-plus performances over two playoff games.

When thinking specifically about this line, it doesn’t hurt that Joe Burrow automatically looks for his 2019 LSU teammate over everyone else and that the team might be in a shootout.

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: 1 or more TDs (+115)

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Mitchell is going to have to lead the way for the 49ers on Sunday with Jimmy Garoppolo struggling so far in the postseason. San Francisco isn’t liable to score 40 points, but their only two offensive touchdowns of the playoffs came in the wild-card round against the Cowboys. They were both rushing scores and Mitchell had one of them.

It stands to reason San Francisco will have at least some success on the ground against a Rams club they’ve beaten six times in a row. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will surely have a couple wrinkles for Los Angeles, and Mitchell should be the beneficiary of some red zone work. Expect a few touchdowns from the 49ers offense, and Mitchell should certainly be one of them.

Rams RB Cam Akers: Over 18.5 yards receiving (-111)

Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

In his three games since returning from an Achilles injury, Akers has been heavily involved on offense. He played 13 snaps in Week 18 and caught all three targets for 10 yards, also carrying it five times. Against the Cardinals in the wild-card round, he caught one pass for 40 yards and dropped another that would’ve gone for 30-plus yards. Last week against the Bucs, he caught all three targets for 20 yards.

So in three weeks, he’s caught seven of his eight targets for 70 yards – an average of 23.3 yards per game – and that’s not including a deep pass that he dropped.

The 49ers are going to pressure Matthew Stafford heavily in this game so expect plenty of checkdowns and screens to the running back. After seeing Sony Michel play just 14 snaps last week, it’s clear Akers is the guy in the backfield. He could top this number with one successful screen pass, and I like the volume he’s seeing as a receiver.

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