The one potentially fatal flaw for every NFC playoff team

No matter how your regular season has gone, if you’re in the playoffs, none of that stuff matters. There are all kinds of examples of low postseason seeds doing it right on the road when it counts, and making their improbable Super Bowl dreams come true. The 2020 Buccaneers achieved just such a feat, winning all four of their postseason games on the road, and giving Tom Brady his seventh Super Bowl ring.

Every team in the tournament has a shot at the title with the big reset, but every team in the tournament also has potentially fatal flaws that could have them falling short when it counts the most.

Here, by order of playoff seed, is the one potentially fatal flaw that could boot each of the NFC’s Super Bowl LVI hopefuls off the map.

Green Bay Packers: Two-deep coverage

(Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com-USA TODAY NETWORK)

It’s hard to find holes in this roster right now, which is why Matt LaFleur’s team has the NFC’s one-seed wrapped up. You could argue that the Packers’ receivers not named Davante Adams don’t put fear in the hearts of opposing defenses, but those receivers not named Davante Adams have 14 touchdown receptions this season, and Green Bay will likely get Randall Cobb (core muscle surgery) back for the playoffs. You could also say that the special teams are a problem (which they are), but there’s another issue lurking in the weeds, and it isn’t Aaron Rodgers’ vaccination conspiracy theories.

Rodgers will probably win his second straight NFL MVP award, and justifiably so. But whoever faces the Packers in the divisional round and beyond should want to throw at much two-deep safety coverage as possible at Rodgers and his receivers.

Per Sports Info Solutions, through Week 17, Rodgers had completed 148 of 216 passes for 2,094 yards, 1,111 air yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions against Cover-1 and Cover-3 (single-high safety looks). Against Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6, Rodgers had completed 101 of 159 passes for 1,188 yards, 650 air yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Why the difference? For one thing, two-deep coverage allows opposing defenses to bracket receiver Davante Adams, and the stats tell the story there, as well. Against single-high coverage through Week 17, Adams had 60 catches on 76 targets for 855 yards, 526 air yards, and two touchdowns, Against two-high, Adams caught 28 passes on 44 targets for 418 yards, 304 air yards, and no touchdowns.

This disparity in productivity for Green Bay’s two most important offensive players also happened in 2020, as revealed in this detailed breakdown of what the Saints did to Rodgers and Adams with their aggressive two-deep looks in the 2021 season opener, a 38-3 loss for Green Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: An iffy receiver group

(AP Photo/Alex Menendez)

The defending champs have not enjoyed the injury luck they were handed in the 2020 season — in fact, regression in that area has hit the Buccaneers like the proverbial ton of bricks. But defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has done a nice job of managing an injury-riddled secondary, and that defensive backfield appears to be getting a bit healthy at the best possible time.

So, we need to turn to the receiver corps, where Tom Brady will have to work with a less than stellar group of targets. Brady is used to that over time, but the loss of Chris Godwin to a torn ACL in Week 15, and the release of Antonio Brown after… well, *waves hands everywhere* leaves Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich with Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson as the primary guys at that position. Evans is a natural WR 1 in theory, but his connections with Brady have been off-and-on, and he’s not the player Brady needs to catch and run in the timing of the down — that was Godwin, and that was Brown.

Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman have done a few things of late, but if the Bucs are to return to the Super Bowl, it will likely be on the tight end plan, with Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard. With two and three tight ends on the field through Week 17 per Sports Info Solutions, Brady completed 42 of 71 passes for 464 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Add in that running back Leonard Fournette has improbably turned into Brady’s new James White — the back who can operate as a full-fledged receiver — and it’s time for the Bucs to get even more creative with Brady’s options.

Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy's clock management

(Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

Dallas’ second-year head coach has the Cowboys at 12-5 and in the postseason for the first time since 2018, but if you’re crediting Mike McCarthy as the primary factor for this turnaround… well, not really. Kellen Moore is in firm control of the offense, Dan Quinn has engineered a remarkable defensive renaissance, and that leaves McCarthy with game management as his primary task.

That, folks, is less than optimal. McCarthy has a long history of game management blunders going back to his time with the Packers, and that has shown itself far too often in 2021.

There was this bit of clock-mangling against the Eagles in Week 3, much to the displeasure of one Peyton Manning…

…and this bit of ineptitude against the Chargers the week before.

“Other teams have issues with clock management,: Jerry Jones said of McCarthy in late September. “That’s part of the game. And, so, let’s cut them some slack and realize that if you do enough plays — we were critical of [former Cowboys head coach and current Giants offensive coordinator Jason] Garrett when he was here. Don’t you think that goes with the territory?”

Generally, it does not. Not to this degree, and Jones had better hope McCarthy doesn’t find his own level in this department in the postseason.

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford's inconsistency

(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

The Rams traded Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-round pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford before the 2021 season because Sean McVay was tired of Jared Goff’s ceiling being one inch above his head. An understandable decision, to be sure, as Stafford has more arm talent on his worst day than Goff has on his best. But to what end this year?

Stafford’s consistency has been an issue, especially of late. In the first half of the season (Weeks 1-9), he completed 219 of 321 passes for 2,771 yards, 23 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 111.6. From Week 10 through Week 18, Stafford completed 185 of 280 passes for 2,115 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.7. Stafford is having trouble connecting with his receivers in the timing of the down, especially on tight-window throws, the passing game has not been the same since Robert Woods was lost for the rest of the season in Week 9, and at this point, he’s a more gifted version of what Goff became — a quarterback you have to work around as much as you benefit from his expertise.

Arizona Cardinals: A pass defense that has fallen apart

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: There were issues with the Cardinals’ offense in the second half of the season. Arizona’s passing game, dealing with injuries to Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins and other key players, fell from third in the first half of 2021 to 22nd in Weeks 10-18. Murray and his crew showed improvement against the Cowboys and Seahawks at the end of the season, so we’ll assume for now that Kliff Kingsbury and his guys have it on lock.

Because the real issue with this team comes on the other side of the ball right now. Since Week 10, Arizona has fallen from second to 19th in Defensive DVOA, and from second to 28th (ugh) in Pass Defense DVOA. As much as the offense has been up-and-down, that pass defense has been a primary reason the Cards went from 8-1 to 11-6. Arizona has allowed 14 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions since Week 10, and their QBR allowed of 102.3 is the fourth-worst in the league over that time. Underrated safety Jalen Thompson has been a much-needed bastion of consistently as all around him has fallen apart, and it’s time for the rest of the guys in that secondary to step up, and replicate what we saw in the first half of the season.

San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo's ceiling

(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

The 49ers have dealt as adeptly as possible with Garoppolo’s injury history and his limitations on the field when he is able to play for years. We all know what Garoppolo is and what he isn’t from a quarterback perspective, and though he played very well in the second half of the regular-season finale against the Rams to help his team into the postseason, there’s still the Garoppolo who completed nine of 12 passes for 90 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception in the first half. And that’s more of the Garoppolo we’ve seen over time than the Garoppolo who tore Los Angeles’ defense up later in the game.

The question now is, how will Kyle Shanahan handle the limitations of his quarterback? Will it be the plan implemented in 2019, when Garoppolo completed just 17 passes in two playoff games, and then fell woefully short (literally and figuratively) in Super Bowl LIV against the Chiefs? Giving Garoppolo any more rope than Shanahan did earlier in that postseason might be the key to an early exit this time around.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts under pressure

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The Eagles did a very nice job of turning their season around on both offense and defense — once 5-7 and out of the postseason picture, Nick Sirianni’s team won four of their last five games, showing upticks in nearly every department. Since his three-interception disaster against the Giants in a 13-7 Week 12 loss, quarterback Jalen Hurts has been more efficient overall, completing 66.7% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 101.3.

The Eagles sat Hurts in the regular-season finale against the Cowboys, but they’ll need him to continue his recent level of play. The one thing that could upend Hurts, and this has been the case all season, is pressure. Hurts is still learning when to hold in the pocket and when to bail when he has pass-rushers around him, and that’s shown up both on tape and in the numbers. When pressured in that same stretch of games, Hurts has completed just 59.3% of his passes for no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 88.5. Hurts is also capable of creating explosive plays when he rolls away from pressure, but the Eagles would probably settle for consistency over explosiveness in this particular case.

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