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In a matchup between two teams ranked in the top-five of the FIBA Women’s World Rankings, USA takes on France in Women’s Olympic Basketball on Monday at 12:40 am ET. The spread at PointsBet Sportsbook is USA -13.5 with the Total fluctuating between 155 and 156.5 depending on the book. Keep reading to find out more on both teams and why I see value in betting the Total (and a prop) for this Olympic Women’s Basketball match between USA and France.
The USA Women’s Basketball team is on a 51-game win streak heading into their final match of the group stage. USA, winners of the last six Olympic gold medals and the top-ranked squad in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings, already clinched their spot in the quarterfinals but could finish atop Group B with a win over France. The team is 2-0 in Tokyo, but they are 0-2 against the spread after narrowly missing the 19.5-point spread in a 17-point victory against Japan. USA didn’t come close to covering as 23.5-point chalk in their first match against Nigeria, but the Americans still pulled out a single-digit victory.
Reigning WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson led the team in scoring over their first two games and put up double-doubles in each. Wilson is averaging 19.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in her Olympic debut and is key to USA’s hopes of winning another gold medal. The United States also boasts the Seattle Storm duo of Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart, key cogs in the team’s high-powered offense. Bird is USA’s main distributor, averaging an Olympics-high 9.5 assists through two games in Tokyo, while Stewart's put up an average of 12 points and 12 boards per game.
France, the fifth-ranked team in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings, is 1-1 after splitting their first two matches of the Tokyo Olympics. Japan upset France in their first game 74-70, winning the three-point battle. Japan shot 41% from deep and held France to only 21% from beyond the arc. France bounced back against Nigeria in their second match in a 87-62 win where five players scored double-digit points. France is one of the strongest interior teams in the tournament, averaging 40 rebounds and 27 points in the paint through two games.
The French squad’s deep frontcourt is headlined by veteran post player Sandrine Gruda. The 6’4” center is an intimidating rim protector who racked up five blocks in a 2012 Olympic match against Great Britain, tied for the third most in a single Olympic game. Gruda, a solid rebounder who averaged 16 points and nine rebounds through two games, is one of multiple experienced players on the French side. The team also has Gabby Williams, a WNBA player for the Los Angeles Sparks. France made the semifinals in each of the last two Olympics, but they are now in danger of missing the quarterfinals altogether. They will likely advance to the next round, but a blowout loss to USA would leave the door open for another team placing third in their group to pass them on the points-differential tiebreaker.
The French team is feeling the pressure in this Women’s Olympic Basketball game and have a rebounding advantage over the talented USA side. I’m passing on the spread for this Group B matchup and focusing on a prop that has value. My best bet for USA vs France is A’ja Wilson to surpass her points total. Wilson put up at least 19 points in her first two matches, and the reigning MVP is the focal point of the USA offense. I also like the total score to be under 156.5, as none of the four games played by these two squads exceeded 155 in this tournament and both teams are shooting under 35 percent from three-point territory.
Under 156.5 (Bet365)
A’ja Wilson Over 16.5 Points (DraftKings)