OKLAHOMA SOONERS AT OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (+13.5, 69)
Last season, these programs had two of the best offenses in the country but also had two of the worst defenses. Both sides ranked outside the Top-100 in the FBS in yards allowed while giving up over 33 points per game.
This year however, both teams have shown improvement on the defensive side of the ball. This has been most evident in the early going with Oklahoma allowing just 3.5 ppg in the first quarter to FBS foes (17th best in the country) and Oklahoma State giving up 4 ppg (22nd).
Although both teams can also put up points this 1Q total looks too high. Bet the Under.
PICK: First Quarter Under 16.5 (-110)
FIRST HALF BET
The Cowboys lost one of the best receivers in the Big 12 in Tylan Wallace to a season-ending injury but have continued to excel on offense thanks in large part to running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard leads the country with 1,832 rushing yards and the Cowboys average 254 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry against FBS foes.
While the Sooners defense plays well in the first 15 minutes of games they struggle during the second quarter. They allow 13 ppg in the first half and over their last four games (all against conference opponents) they've given up a whopping 19.8 ppg before halftime.
Over those four games the Sooners defense also gave up 5.1 yards per carry and none of the teams they faced are anywhere near as dangerous as the Cowboys on the ground. Take Oklahoma State's first half team total Over
PICK: First Half Oklahoma State Over 14 (-110)
The Lincoln Riley era in Oklahoma has been marked by incredible offensive production which means that when they lose it's been the fault of the defense. Since Riley took over as head coach in 2017 the Sooners have lost just five games but four of those contests cashed the Over. In those five defeats the Sooners gave up 46.6 ppg and the average total was 88.4.
Oklahoma State has a high-scoring offense and might be in good position to pull off an upset at home this weekend against an OU squad that is going through a rough stretch.
If the Sooners lose against the Cowboys it seems like a good bet that it will be a high-scoring matchup and if that's the case a "result and total bet" of "Oklahoma State and Over" looks like great value at +1100.
PICK: Result and Total - Oklahoma State and Over 69 (+1100)
FULL GAME TOTAL
The total for this game is a whopping 69 points but there's plenty of reason to think it could go Over. These conference rivals have a history of shootouts having gone 5-1-1 to the Over in their previous seven meetings and both teams have very high-scoring offenses combined with defensive units that have shown cracks.
Oklahoma leads the nation with 574.7 yards per game while Oklahoma State piles up 475.6 ypg (13th in the FBS). Although the Cowboys will be missing their starting quarterback in Spencer Sanders, his replacement Dru Brown played well against West Virgina last week. And Brown isn't some green freshman, he's a graduate transfer who started for Hawaii in 2017.
The Cowboys give up 424.9 ypg to FBS opponents (86th in the nation), including 288.1 ypg through the air (118th). That's bad news against a Sooners aerial attack led by Jalen Hurts who has completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 3,184 yards and 30 touchdowns this season.
While OU has been solid on defense for much of the season they've given up 36 ppg over their last four games. Expect a back and forth offensive battle as these teams exchange touchdowns. Bet the Over.
PICK: Over 69
FULL GAME SIDE
The Cowboys tend to play well both at home and against good teams. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home tilts and 9-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Sooners have been brutal on the road and against strong opponents, going 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-4 ATS in their previous four contests against teams with a winning record.
Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball effectively and keep the score close, especially if OU continues to be sloppy with the ball. The Sooners rank near the bottom of the country in turnover differential and have given the ball away 10 times over the last four games.
Until the last week of October, Oklahoma had a strong case as the best team in the nation. Since then, they lost to Kansas State before winning their last three contests by a combined total of just eight points. Laying 13.5 points with them in a rivalry game on the road against a ranked opponent is too much. Take Okie State and the points.
PICK: Oklahoma State +13.5