Notre Dame-No. 5 Clemson: ESPN FPI projects Irish chances of upset

Notre Dame played what was probably their best overall game Saturday in defeating previously No. 16 Syracuse away from home.  The win moved Notre Dame back into the receiving votes category of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, but how did an entity without bias judge the Irish win?

Based on improved projections from a week ago, one would say pretty good.

ESPN has updated its Football Power Index, something we like to look at each week.   It doesn’t guarantee results by any means but does give information as to how good, average, or poor a team may be and gives each team’s chances at victory in a given game.

Here is what ESPN’s FPI says about Notre Dame the rest of the way after the Irish win at Syracuse.

What tho the odds

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

For the third time in eight games this season, Notre Dame ended up doing the opposite of what FPI projected when the Irish beat Syracuse last Saturday.  Marshall and Stanford were projected as Notre Dame wins by FPI but Notre Dame forgot to show up on those given nights.

Last week ESPN’s FPI gave Notre Dame a 39.3% chance of victory, something to consider when you see what they say for Clemson this coming weekend.

Notre Dame-Clemson projection

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 vs. Clemson

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 35.2% (Down 6.5% from last week)

 

 

Notre Dame-Navy projection

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 vs. Navy in Baltimore

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 90.3% (Up 3.1% from last week)

Notre Dame-Boston College projection

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Week 12 vs. Boston College

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 94.4% (Up 2.2% from last week)

Notre Dame-USC projection

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Week 13 at USC

FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 28.8% (Up 6.6% from last week)

Notre Dame FPI Note 1 of 4: Notre Dame moves up in rankings

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

After their rather dominating win over Syracuse, Notre Dame moved up three spots in the ESPN FPI this week to 18th nationally.  For reference, Ohio State sits in the top spot while Clemson checks in at seven and USC at 10.

Notre Dame FPI Note 2 of 4: Win out bump!

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

After winning a game the index had the Irish as an underdog in, it stands to reason their chances of winning would go up.  FPI now gives Notre Dame an 8.9% chance of running the table the final month after giving them just a 1.9% shot a week ago.

Notre Dame FPI Note 3 of 4: Bowl Eligibility

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Not that FPI ever didn’t see Notre Dame going to a bowl game, but this last win essentially eliminated any question of that happening according to the index.  A week after being given a 93.6% chance at winning at least six games, FPI now gives the Irish a 99.8% chance of doing so.

Notre Dame FPI Note 4 of 4: Ultimate record projection

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

How much of a shot at eight wins does Notre Dame have?  FPI says a lot better a week after beating Syracuse as the Irish are now given a projected record of 7.5-4.5 after being listed at just 6.7-5.3 last week.

Story originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire