Notre Dame has just three games remaining in 2023’s regular season with the most challenging task coming Saturday at Clemson. Sure, the Tigers are just 4-4 but do bring one of the nation’s more talented rosters and best home environments to battle.
At Fighting Irish Wire we gave our predictions to what happens in the game but now we check in on a source that uses straight statistical analysis, not feeling or opinion.
That source is ESPN’s Football Power Index which is updated on a weekly basis. How does it feel about Notre Dame’s chances to win on Saturday following Clemson’s loss to North Carolina State?
And are the Irish a shoe-in for 10 wins this regular season, something they’d have to win out to accomplish?
Here is what ESPN FPI says about Notre Dame’s remaining slate.
Nov. 4 at Clemson
FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 65.2% (Up 10.0% from last week)
Notre Dame’s destruction of Pittsburgh coupled with Clemson suffering perhaps their worst loss in years to North Carolina State tilted the odds in Notre Dame’s favor by a rather significant margin for this point in the year.
Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest
FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 94.3% (Up 0.8% from last week)
Notre Dame received a slight bump after defeating Pittsburgh in a big way. This also includes Wake Forest’s tough loss at Duke this past Thursday night.
Nov. 25 at Stanford
FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 95.5% (Up from 95.4% last week)
Virtually no change whatsoever as Stanford continues to struggle. It should be noted that Notre Dame was over a 90% favorite according to this source ahead of last year’s home loss to Stanford.
Does Notre Dame Win Out?
FPI odds of Notre Dame winning all three remaining games: 58.9% (Up from 44.8% last week)
The elimination of one game from the schedule helps, even if it was against a Pitt team that the Irish were a significant favorite over. What is most interesting to me is how much weight the Clemson loss to NC State seemed to carry. It was clearly Clemson’s worst showing of the four-loss season. Is more of that to come Saturday?
Irish Overall Ranking
Notre Dame checked in 11th overall in the ESPN FPI team rankings. That matches their ranking from last week as well.