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All is not lost in Robert Williams III’s indefinite absence

The Boston Celtics did not come all this way to slump their shoulders in the absence of any one player. Sure, beating them may be incrementally easier now that Robert Williams III will miss at least several weeks with a torn meniscus in his left knee. But, you’re still going to earn every single score and every single stop. Williams III anchored a defense that became the identity of a Celtics team that has gone 24-5 since being 1 game below .500 on the morning of January 22.

Boston allows the opposition to score 105.9 points per 100 possessions this season — that’s the best defense in the NBA by a slim margin. Over its last 29 games — a stretch that catapulted the Celtics from a playoff hopeful to a bona fide championship contender — Boston allowed just 103.6 points per 100 possessions.

The difference between that and the 2nd best defense is the same difference as the 2nd best defense and the 19th best defense.

Something clicked for the Celtics, and Williams III was a catalyst behind it.

Over that 29-game span, the Celtics gave up just 100.6 points per 100 possessions with Williams on the floor; they were +20.3 per 100 possessions with him playing. That net rating is the best in the NBA over the portioned span by almost 5 points per 100 possessions. It annihilates the league-leading Phoenix Suns’ full-season net rating of 8.5.

But, what if I told you that Boston’s defensive and net ratings were better with either of Jayson Tatum and Al Horford on the floor?

As dominant as Boston’s defense has been with Williams playing, he isn’t the only one producing on that end for the Celtics.

The Celtics were +310 in the 744 minutes Williams played in the 25 games he was available over that 29-game stretch. Neither Horford’s nor Marcus Smart’s figures were far behind. Tatum was the only Celtic ahead of Williams.

Even more indicative that optimism is reasonable is that Boston was +130 in the 653 minutes Williams was off the court in that 29-game stretch. That was still the second-worst figure with a rotation Celtic off the court. Yet, it was still positive by 130 points.

The per 100 possession figures corroborate the story. The Celtics allowed 104.7 points per 100 possessions with Williams off the court in those 29 games. Non-negligible difference, and yet the Celtics were still 10.7 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. Tatum and Derrick White were the only rotation Celtics whose impacts were missed more. And the defense was only 1 point per 100 possessions better with Horford off the court.

That’s not normal. You’re not supposed to be that dominant without your defensive anchor on the floor. You’re not supposed to have another center that can credibly fill that hole.

And yet, the Celtics do.

I would be remiss if I didn’t say that these figures do not necessarily account for how much easier his teammates’ lives are because of Williams’ defensive presence. As Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out in his story on the injury, Williams is the only player in the NBA holding opponents under 40% on their field goal attempts with him as the closest defender.

The Celtics play off of Williams’ prowess. But, they have more than one lifeline.

The significant characteristic that cannot be emulated by any one teammate is the offensive rebounding. Williams has the 4th best offensive rebounding percentage in the NBA. He comes away with 14.5% of his teammate’s misses when he’s on the floor. Boston, as a team, ranks 12th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage. So, Williams is undeniably keeping them afloat on that front.

One-and-done possessions will be problematic, but the Celtics have the size to gang rebound in pursuit of extra possessions.

They’ll have to make up for Williams’ absence as a gang, just as they did when they revived their season with him readily available.

This post originally appeared on Celtics Wire. Follow us on Facebook!

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