Nightengale's Notebook: Mark McGwire thinks Aaron Judge will best Bonds and Pujols is a lock for 700
OAKLAND — Mark McGwire, who will turn 59 years old in three weeks, with 12-year-old triplets at home and two arthritic thumbs that keeps him from even playing golf, is just like every other middle-aged baseball fan.
Only he has quite a different resume.
McGwire, the four-time home run champion who broke one of the game’s most hallowed records, retiring in 2001 with 583 homers, can’t keep his eyes off New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge and St. Louis Cardinals icon Albert Pujols.
He’s convinced that Judge will shatter the American League record for home runs set by Yankees great Roger Maris in 1961, and run away with the American League MVP award.
And he believes that Pujols, his former teammate, will hit four more homers and join the exclusive 700-homer club on the road to Cooperstown.
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McGwire, who originally broke Maris’ single-season record with 70 homers during the great home-run race in 1998 that mesmerized the entire country, insists that Judge will accomplish even greater feats before his career ends.
“He’s definitely going to break Maris’ Yankee record," McGwire tells USA TODAY Sports, “but I truly believe he’ll break Barry’s record, too."
That’s Barry, as in Bonds, who set the all-time single-season record of 73 home runs in 2001, eclipsing McGwire’s record set three years earlier.
“I think he’ll finish with at least 65 home runs this year,’’ McGwire says, “and then position himself to hit get to 73 to 74 in the next five to eight years. I really believe he’ll have that opportunity. He’s going to get close to it, and say, ‘Where can I bunch in nine more homers?’ God willing that he stays healthy, he’s going to do that, too.’’
If Judge breaks Bonds’ record one day, it will squash any debate whether he should be considered the single-season home-run champion once he hits 62. The three National League players who eclipsed Maris were all linked to performance-enhancing drugs: Bonds, McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Only McGwire admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs.
“Barry has got the all-time home run record,’’ McGwire flatly says. “Seventy-three is the record. Judge will have the record once he passes Barry.’’
Judge, who grew up a Giants fan two hours away in Linden, Calif., heartily agrees that steroid allegations or not, the record belongs to Bonds.
“The record is the record," he reiterated to reporters once again this week. “No one can take that away from him."
There can be all sort of fake asterisks on home-run records. Babe Ruth played before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Maris set the record during an expansion season. There was the PED era, although Bonds, McGwire and Sosa were all facing plenty of pitchers who were juiced, too.
Judge, who has 55 homers, will be considered the single-season AL home-run champion once he hits his 62nd homer. And if he passes Bonds one day, it will be even a more magnificent feat.
For now, McGwire says, we should all sit back, relax and enjoy Judge’s historic season.
Judge, in a year in which home runs are down to their lowest level since 2015, has hit 18 more home runs than the next closest player in Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber with 37 through Sunday. The last time the home run leader hit at least 15 more homers than the runner-up was Jimmie Foxx in 1932 (58-41). And Babe Ruth is the only hitter to hit at least 20 more homers than anyone back in 1928 (54-31).
“You see the patience he has, he never goes into a slump," McGwire says. “For such a huge man, he’s got such an incredible eye at the plate. For a guy who strikes out, you don’t think of him as a guy that strikes out a lot because of his plate discipline.’’
Judge is enjoying one of the greatest seasons of any player in Yankee in history, also leading the major leagues in runs scored (112), RBI (120), slugging percentage (.683), on-base-plus slugging percentage (1.095) and extra-base hits (78).
He’s looking like the game’s greatest businessman, too, rejecting a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension this spring that could be worth $75-$100 million more in free agency this winter.
“I think the proudest thing about his year is that he didn’t sign that extension,’’ McGwire says. “He went out and and believed in himself. He showed what can happen when you believe in yourself, and the numbers will fall in place. He’s not chasing the money. He’s going out and playing the game, and letting the money follow him.
“You could pull up 10 Brinks trucks to his house after this season.’’
McGwire, who congratulated Judge after he broke his rookie home-run record with 52 homers in 2017, plans to phone him again when he hits his AL record-62nd home run. He’ll call again if he passes McGwire with his 71st home run. And yes, once again, if the day comes that he breaks Bonds' record, too.
“I think the world of him,’’ McGwire says, “just that quiet confidence he has. He’s obviously an imposing figure, and doesn’t do all of the stuff these kids are doing now to show how good you are. He’s so fun to watch and carries himself so well.’’
And no matter how many home runs he winds up with, McGwire says, he undoubtedly should be the MVP over Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. He may not be a two-way player, but then again, he’s a two-way player with his outfield defense while Ohtani is strictly a DH on the days he doesn’t pitch. Ohtani hasn’t played an inning in the field all season.
“What he’s meant to the Yankees this year, getting them to the playoffs and maybe the World Series, he’s going to be the MVP,’’ McGwire says. "No question about it. What a great year, and he’s been doing it from Day 1. The individual accomplishments are great, but he’s showing it’s about the team.
“I know what Ohtani has done, but look at where the Angels are. They’re not even close to a wild-card spot. Where would the Yankees be without Judge?
“Hands down, it’s Judge.’’
Oh, and as long as Big Mac is offering predictions, McGwire says that Pujols will be the fourth member of the 700 home run club.
“Look, homers come in bunches,’’ McGwire said. “He could get two or three in a few games. When I got 70, I hit five in my last three games. It just happens. I truly believe he’s going to get past 700.’’
Pujols, who hit No. 696 on Saturday, has proven that he could go on a home-run tear at any time, hitting eight homers in a three-week stretch in August.
What better way to end his Hall of Fame career than hitting his 700th homer in front of a packed house at Busch Stadium?
“Oh my gosh, I’m so happy for him,’’ McGwire says, “and I’ll really happy for St. Louis. He looks like he’s 25 again.
“I think what really helped him was the Angels letting him go last year and going back to the National League with the Dodgers. It just got that fire burning again. All of a sudden, St. Louis calls and it worked out great, especially with the DH in the National League.’’
McGwire, whose last year in baseball in 2001 was Pujols’ rookie season in St. Louis, knew that Pujols had a chance to be a special player – but one of the greatest hitters in history?
“It’s unbelievable what he’s done,’’ says McGwire, who stays in close contact with Pujols. “If you go through the list of things he’s accomplished, you could write a 300-page book. To hit 700, that’s just a special, special number. You think of the longevity of playing 20 years, the consistency of power, and everything else. If Albert wasn’t hurt those years with the Angels, he’d be flying by that all-time record.
“I played just one year with him, and damn, I wish I had played five or six years with him. What a fierce competitor. In order to be the best in the game, you’ve got to be that intense.
“He deserves everything coming his way. There’s no doubt he has to be a 100% Hall of Famer. What an unbelievable player.’’
A's giving Dave Stewart his day
Dave Stewart still is numb by the honor, and on Sunday afternoon, will be honored as one of the greatest to ever wear an Oakland Athletics uniform.
And no one in the A’s organization will ever wear No. 34 again.
Stewart’s jersey will be officially retired, joining Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, Catfish Hunter, Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley. He’s the first A’s player who isn't in the Baseball Hall of Fame to have his jersey retired.
“That’s what makes it such an honor,’’ Stewart says, “because they would never retire numbers unless they were Hall of Famers. They broke tradition to honor me.
“People may know about what I did on the field, but when you look at the community I grew up in, my community involvement, that’s what make it truly an honor.’’
Stewart, a 20-game winner in four consecutive seasons, a three-time World Series champion with three different teams, a two-time ALCS MVP, and the 1989 World Series MVP, perhaps was most proud of winning the Roberto Clemente award for his community work in the aftermath of the 1989 earthquake.
On the field, he was one of the fiercest competitors in the game.
The bigger the moment, the more he excelled, and no one, but no one, messed with him.
“He was the ultimate gamer,’’ former teammate Mark McGwire says. “Being a young kid, watching him work, you were in awe. The glove above the face, the scowl, you talk about a guy not wanting to be taken out of a game.
“Just the fierce competitive nature he had, you would go to war for him any day.’’
There were the years Boston Red Sox ace Roger Clemens kept throwing inside and hitting the A’s batters. Well, Stewart walked out into the Red Sox outfield before a game. He saw Jim Rice, Dwight Evans and Mike Greenwell. And calmly issued a warning.
“I just told them that stuff has got to stop,’’ Stewart says. “If it doesn’t, I’m going to do a 2-for-1 special. One of our guys go down, two of yours go down.
“My guys were not going to be mistreated.’’
Surprise, surprise, there were no more hit batsmen.
“He did in his way, saying it so calmly,’’ McGwire says, “and watching them say, 'Oh, [bleep].' That was Dave protecting his players and understanding what was going on. I just loved the stare down he had, that the pure intimidation factor.’’
Stewart, who was supposed to have his ceremony in 2020 (COVID), was told this year that the ceremony would finally take place. Stewart, who will have about 200 friends and family on hand, had just one request.
“I wanted it to be when the White Sox were in town,’’ Stewart quietly said, “so that Tony would be there.’’
It was Tony La Russa, the Hall of Fame White Sox manager, who resurrected his career along with pitching coach Dave Duncan. He had already bounced around with three teams. His career was on life support when the A’s gave him a shot, signing him to a two-year, $500,000 contract.
He parlayed it into four consecutive 20-victory seasons beginning in 1987, averaging 36 starts with 1,061⅔ innings and finished in the top 4 in Cy Young voting each year. He became a member of the "Black Aces," the fraternity of African-American pitchers who won 20 games, formed by former Minnesota Twins starter Mudcat Grant.
“Mudcat had a great thought thinking about how few Black pitchers won 20 games in a year,’’ Stewart said. “I thought it was amazing that he formed that fraternity. It’s such an elite group. There’s still so few Black pitchers in the game today.
“And to win 20 games four years in a row, let’s say that’s a foregone conclusion that won’t happen again.’’
La Russa, who hasn't been managing the White Sox from medical reasons, was cleared to travel with the team to Oakland for Stewart's ceremony.
“This guy somehow looked through everything else that nobody could see,’’ Stewart says of La Russa, “and gave me the opportunity to start the first game of the season with the Oakland A’s. He looked past a lot of mess. He decided to reach into his pocket, and say, “You’re going to be our guy.’’
Around the basepaths...
– Chicago White Sox manager Tony La Russa, sidelined him since Aug. 30, is telling the White Sox that he’s ready to return this week.
But while a high-ranking White Sox executive says that La Russa could indeed return this upcoming week, there’s plenty of debate within the organization whether they should wait.
They argue that the White Sox have played quite well under interim manager Miguel Cairo and they’ve crawled back into the AL Central race.
There’s also the case they might be jeopardizing La Russa’s health by bringing him back so quickly, though he was cleared to travel with the team to Oakland this weekend.
Ultimately, White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf will make the decision, likely deciding that it would be unfair to keep La Russa, 77, from returning if he’s feeling healthy.
It simply will be the latest dramatic chapter in the White Sox’s turbulent season.
– There’s no deadline trade that has had a greater impact this year than the St. Louis Cardinals’ grand theft of starter Jordan Montgomery.
The Cardinals badly needed another starter, so shipped injured center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Montgomery. The Yankees felt at the time that they didn’t need Montgomery down the stretch, and likely wouldn’t even make their postseason roster.
Well, Montgomery has been nothing short of sensational, going 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first seven starts, yielding 31 hits in 43⅓ innings with 38 strikeouts.
“Let’s see how it all plays out,’’ Cardinals president John Mozeliak said. “Everybody can have an opinion at the moment, but you can’t really evaluate trades until years later.
“But our strategy all along was to find some pitching, add some innings, and we’ve done that with [Jose Quintana] and Montgomery.’’
– Baltimore Orioles GM Mike Elias is telling everyone they will be aggressive this offseason, spend money in the free agent market, and plan to be a contender.
Seeing is believing.
Their opening-day payroll was just $43.7 million, lowest in the big leagues.
– The San Francisco Giants are another team who vows to spend big money in the offseason, with just $96.5 million on the books next year.
They would love to grab one of the prized shortstops on the market if they can’t land the big fish, Aaron Judge.
The finest shortstop on the free-agent market is Trea Turner of Dodgers, who’s widely considered among the top players in the game.
His defensive metrics should improve next year too with the new rules that will ban shifts. The Dodgers shift 71.4% of the time against left-handers, second behind only the Toronto Blue Jays. Yet, against right-handers with no shift, Turner's defensive numbers outweigh everyone but fellow free agent Dansby Swanson of Atlanta.
Turner should become baseball’s newest $300 million shortstop.
-- The Red Sox would gladly switch places with any team to get out of the AL East.
They are the Oakland A’s (18-40) against the AL East this season, with their .310 winning percentage the lowest since divisional play began in 1969.
But against everyone else, they are the Dodgers (49-32, .605)
– MLB starters have combined for only 27 complete games this season, including 11 shutouts.
Hall of Famer Bob Gibson had 28 complete games and 13 shutouts by himself in 1968.
– Los Angeles Dodgers ace Walker Buehler is the 70th MLB pitcher to undergo two Tommy John surgeries, and he can’t help but wonder if he’ll be the same when he returns in 2024.
“I’ve done this rehab, obviously, pretty successfully once before so I think that gives you some confidence,” Buehler told reporters. “But at the same time, it is the second one, so the numbers aren’t quite as clear-cut or in your favor like the first one. …
“I have a lot of pride in the career I’ve had so far, and hopefully it’s not the end of it.’’
– Who would have imagined that five weeks after the San Diego Padres shocked the baseball world by acquiring Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals, he would go into such a funk that Padres fans are now booing him.
Soto is hitting .063 without an extra-base hit in his last 10 games, and just .223 with three homers and six RBI in the 30 games since joining the Padres.
“The challenge is just going from a team that’s not going anywhere to a team that has a really good chance to win the World Series,’’ he told reporters. “That changes everything from one day to another. …It’s been kind of tough, but I know I’m going to get hot in a really good moment.’’
– Has there ever been a more productive team meeting than Atlanta manager Brian Snitker’s talk on June 1 in Phoenix?
They have gone 63-24, overcoming a 10 ½-game deficit to take the NL East lead over the Mets on Friday.
“These guys, at a young age, have been through a whole lot,” Snitker told reporters. “We’ve proved that as long as we got a strike left, we got a chance. I like the way they kind of just kept an even keel and went about their business.”
– What a cool moment for Tigers infielder Kody Clemens, who was on the mound once again in another blowout, when he recorded his first strikeout.
The victim: Angels MVP Shohei Ohtani.
Oh, how his dad, seven-time Cy Young winner Roger Clemens, would be proud.
Kody made sure to ask for the ball, and had it sent over to the Angels’ clubhouse for an Ohtani autograph.
Ohtani signed it, and wrote "what a nasty pitch.’’
– If the Mets don’t win the division, they’re going to have to use Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in the first two games of the wild-card round, meaning they would have just one start apiece on regular rest in the best-of-five Division Series.
– San Francisco Giants outfielder Joc Pederson is back playing fantasy football in the same league as Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich, Eric Hosmer, Shane Bieber, Wil Myers and Mike Napoli.
Tommy Pham is not in the league this year.
– The Cubs have had discussions with former player Ben Zobrist about an expanded role in the organization besides doing alumni events.
– This will be the first year since 2002, the year before Arte Moreno purchased the Angels, that they will sell fewer than 3 million tickets.
– It’s remarkable that Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has stolen 17 bases this season without being thrown out once.
The only other catcher at the age of 30 or older to steal 20 bases in a season is John Wathan of the Kansas City Royals, whose son, Dusty, coaches third base for the Phillies.
Realmuto is already the only the second catcher in their 30s to steal 15 bases with 15 homers, joining Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk.
– The scariest team no one’s talking about is
the Seattle Mariners, who should be returning to the postseason for the first time since 2001.
You want to face Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in a series?
– The Los Angeles Dodgers, who had outscored the opposition by 297 runs entering Saturday, could become the first team since the 1939 Yankees to have a run differential of at least 350.
This is why they’ll win their most games in franchise history (106 in 2019 and '21), and could clinch their eight NL West title in nine years this week.
– Hard to believe that the Cubs don’t have a single player on their active roster who was on their 2016 World Series championship team.
Follow Nightengale on Twitter: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mark McGwire thinks Aaron Judge will break Barry Bonds' HR record
