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Where NHL teams stand after Thanksgiving

The playoff picture is starting to materialize. (AP)
The playoff picture is starting to materialize. (AP)

Black Friday is usually the cut-off for playoff futility.

That is to say, it’s rare — but not impossible — for teams outside a playoff spot at this point in the season (now at least a quarter of the way through for all but a handful of teams) to actually make the postseason.

That hasn’t been the case, at least not as much, in recent years thanks to the change in playoff formats. In the salary cap era, about three-quarters of all playoff teams were comfortably in a postseason position as of American Thanksgiving.

This year, like so many others in recent years, the standings are pretty tightly packed around the playoff bubble, with a lot of mediocre-seeming teams seeming real mediocre indeed.

Worth noting that if you can reasonably get yourself to somewhere between 95 and 97 points between the end of the season, you’re basically guaranteeing yourself a playoff spot. As such, it’s more instructive to look at the pace at which teams are currently playing, and how well they will need to play the rest of the way to reach that 95-97 point range.

Which, let’s call it 96 for simplicity’s sake, but keep in mind that in the East last year, the Panthers hit 96 and missed the postseason by a point. The way things are going in the league this year, though, 96 looks like a comfortable milestone.

Here’s where things stood in the wake of the biggest turkey-eating day of the year:

Via NHL.com
Via NHL.com

As you can see, 10 teams are playing at a pace for 100 points and can therefore afford to falter at least a bit. Problematically for four of them, though, they’re in the Atlantic Division, meaning that competition for them will be much fiercer than it is for other teams, and for those currently top-three (Tampa, Toronto, and Buffalo, separated by a single point) even a small misstep could be the difference between playing each other or a wild-card team that would be a much easier path to the second round.

With that said, the only teams that seem really vulnerable in the East are in the Metro, and maybe Montreal as they continue to cool. I’m pretty much ready to write off every team that needs to play at a 100-point pace or greater the rest of the way — that is, Ottawa, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Philly, and Florida — but one can easily see Carolina playing at a 98-point pace for the rest of the year given the way they can put up points, and how their goaltending has come around in recent weeks (.918 in the last six after a brutal .876 in the first 15 games).

I might give the Pens and Panthers the benefit of the doubt here as well, but they’d have to turn it around fast and also get someone to falter real hard as well (the Habs and Rangers seem most likely, but they’ve built up a nice war chest of points for themselves).

Plus I’m not ready to say the Hurricanes are going to reliably get .918 goaltending the rest of the way but if they can keep it anywhere near the league average (currently just .908) these guys are going on a run because of how badly they outshoot opponents every night.

The crazy thing about the West is that every team not currently occupying a playoff spot needs to play at a pace for at least 100 to even hit 96 points. So the question becomes who we believe in. That includes all of the teams that made coaching changes in the past few weeks, and really only Edmonton (requiring a 100.8-point pace) feels even remotely feasible. I wouldn’t bet on that, though.

In fact, of all the teams in the Wester Conference that need to pick it up to even have a prayer of making the postseason, it feels like Vegas (which needs to run at a roughly 104-point pace) is remotely capable of doing it. Especially because the Ducks — still inexplicably occupying the last Pacific divisional spot — feel so vulnerable after their hot start. And even then, they would need to turn elite in a real hurry. Every subsequent loss, every loser point in overtime, is another stumbling block they drop in their own path.

But honestly, if you came back in a time machine from April 7 and told me the eight teams currently in the West playoff spots all made it, I couldn’t possibly be surprised by that. The gaps between the haves and have-nots may not seem that big (two points between Vancouver and Dallas, only one between Vancouver and Anaheim) but games-played is a big factor here, as is the fact that a ton of teams out West just seem kinda bad.

I know this is a league that loves to talk about parity and how anyone can do anything. But the fact is that we can still reliably look at the standings when it’s only a quarter of the way done and be reasonably assured that maybe two or three teams that are not in the playoff spots right now will end up there.

Which kinda makes you wonder why they play the full 82, but hey, it’s all about those gate revenues.

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.