NHL Mailbag: Would this Islanders run be possible had Tavares stayed put?

Normally I try to only do one question per team in the mailbag but this week a good chunk of them were about two teams: The Islanders and Lightning. So let’s focus on them both a little bit this week because, hey, they’re clearly capturing imaginations out there.

There’s some other stuff in here too but five of the questions are about those two teams and please get off my back about them.

Let’s chat:

Pat asks: “How bad is San Jose’s goaltending problem and should they be considering trying to find a better solution at the deadline?”

It sucks so bad dude.

You need to know one number here: “.895.” That’s their TEAM save percentage for the season. Both Aaron Dell and Martin Jones are south of .900 right now. That’s really all you need to know.

But here are some other numbers to really contextualize how much they’ve hurt the Sharks, who by the way still have one of the best records in hockey: Based on their shot quality against, they’ve cost San Jose almost 24 goals. That’s about four wins, or eight points in the standings.

If they had those eight extra points, they’d be at least seven clear of the Flames right now, and “only” 10 behind Tampa. It would be a pace for 121 points on the season. And again, that’s just if their goaltending was league-average.

So yeah, they should go get literally any NHL goalie they can find. Without someone who’s at least passable, these guys might lose in the first round despite being the second-best team in the league.

Joanna asks: “If Panarin and Bobrovsky really go to Florida, could the Panthers be good?”

The thing is, the Panthers are already fine.

All their underlying numbers suggest as much, though they don’t suggest that this is a great team struggling for one reason, like the Sharks. They, too, are being sunk by poor goaltending, losing almost as many goals saved above average as San Jose, but the extra eight points or so here merely puts them in the playoff conversation, maybe the eighth seed as of right now.

So if you go out and add an elite winger and a goalie who has struggled this year but has an elite track record? Yeah that probably helps. With Bobrovsky, though, the concern is that he’ll be 31 when his new contract starts and now that he’s already 30-plus, this season might be an indicator of things to come.

And now, the Islanders portion of the mailbag:

Daniella asks: “How much of the Islanders’ current run would have been possible if Tavares had stayed put?”

Obviously the Islanders wouldn’t have a ton of wiggle room since he’s expensive these days, but let’s say the roster stays more or less the same. The only change is that Lou Lamoriello doesn’t have the money to go out and add Val Filppula and Leo Komarov at an absurd combined cap hit. (I know people think Komarov is a big reason for the turnaround but get a grip.)

The problem with the Islanders last season was goaltending and coaching. Like, let’s be serious. Islanders fans like to act like “Johnny Pajamas” was some sort of a defensive detriment or something but he wasn’t the reason Halak and Greiss couldn’t make a save last year.

Trotz comes in, changes the system, the Islanders become a positive xGF team overnight. “Would they be this good if they had an elite center on the team?” Yeah, I’d say they would. I would even say they’d be better.

Rich asks: “What should the Islanders do with their unrestricted free agents (Lee, Eberle, Nelson)?”

This is a team I wouldn’t be too psyched to make a big add for, because I think everyone knows its realistic ceiling. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss are playing .930 hockey right now and no one has that talent level. Doesn’t mean the team isn’t perfectly fine, but when you play other high-end teams five, six, seven games in a row, they probably start figuring you out a bit.

Plus, it hasn’t been discussed much, but the Islanders are really dependent on OT/shootout points. Almost a quarter of their games have been decided that way and there aren’t any of those gimmicks in the playoffs.

That said, I saw some bizarre rumor yesterday that the team might shop a few of those guys and I don’t buy it unless they can upgrade (i.e. they swap Eberle for Panarin). They shouldn’t do it. These guys have earned the right to see how far they can take this, but I wouldn’t start shopping my 2020 first rounder either.

Michael asks via email: “When would be a good time to start worrying about Casey Mittelstadt’s production? Are the Sabres still looking at someone who can be the productive second-line center they thought he’d be?”

The track record is there for this kid and he wouldn’t be the first person to start his NHL career as a teenager and struggle out of the gate.

I think a lot of the expectation here is that he was the eighth pick, he scored a lot in college, and then most important to the reputation, he had five points in six games at the end of last season. It’s hard to play 82 games a season against the best in the world for the first time at 19 and 20 years old. There’s a learning curve but it’s not like he’s terrible. He’s just not what Buffalo fans (too-optimistically) thought he would be.

With that acknowledgement, though, I always thought he was a little overhyped. I bet he’ll be fine in a year or two.

And now, the Tampa portion of the mailbag:

Harry asks: “Give me a reason why Jon Cooper shouldn’t win the Jack Adams.”

Well first of all this isn’t a question, but I’ll allow it.

The reason is that the Lightning are too good. In much the same way Mike Babcock never got credit for those mid-to-late-2000s Red Wings teams that absolutely kicked ass, Cooper won’t get credit. That doesn’t mean he SHOULDN’T win the award, but it does mean he won’t.

I had another guy ask what would happen to Cooper, job-wise, if the Bolts didn’t make it to the Cup Final and the fact that it even has to be asked tells you plenty about how his task this season is and was perceived.

Like, the expectation for this team is “Get to a Cup Final,” whereas every other team in the league would be over the moon to be there. These guys’ job is to not only be there, but probably win the thing in a walk. And they have the horses.

But if you don’t think Trotz (or maaaaaaaybe Craig Berube if the Blues keep it up) is winning this thing you’re out of your mind.

Fabian asks: “What was the last team that was as good as this year’s Tampa?”

Again, those 2005-2009 Wings were just absolutely phenomenal. But Tampa is currently on pace for 129 points, and maybe trending up depending on what they do at the deadline. The best any Red Wings team did — the best any team did in the cap era — is 124 points in that first post-lockout season.

The last team to hit 130 points was the 1995-96 Red Wings, which had 131. No joke, that team featured SEVEN Hall of Famers, and mostly high-end ones at that: Fedorov, Yzerman, Coffey, Larionov, Lidstrom, Cicarelli, and Fetisov.

The fact that these guys are even getting into that conversation with a league that has this much parity is insane.

Hannah asks: “When a team with a not-great roster isn’t doing well, do you blame the coach, GM, or players?”

Some of that can be the coaching (see also: this year’s Blues) and some of it can be the GM (see also: this year’s Blues goaltending before Jordan Binnington did a two-month Dominik Hasek impression).

But it’s never the players’ fault that a team with a meh-or-worse roster isn’t competitive. Often, it’s not the coach’s fault either. But over a long enough timeline, you can only perform to your talent level, and if yours isn’t competitive, that’s it.

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless noted otherwise. Some questions in the mailbag are edited for clarity or to remove swear words, which are illegal to use.