NFL Yahoo Cup Three and Out: Round 14
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NFL Yahoo Cup Fantasy Football Picks | Round 14
NFL DFS Quarterback: Taysom Hill — $28
The interesting thing about Hill is his ability to have a terrible real-life performance — as he did last week, throwing four interceptions in a loss to the Cowboys — but still have a great fantasy day. Hill threw for two touchdowns but ran for over 100 yards en route to a solid 24.66 Yahoo points. That came against a tough Cowboys defense (fourth in overall DVOA). This week the Saints take on the Jets, who are dead last in most defensive metrics.
The return of Kamara to the lineup is probably a net neutral for Hill. On the one hand, Kamara creates plenty of easy quarterback points with his after-catch ability. On the other, Kamara is great around the goal line, limiting the odds of Hill getting carries in that area. Of course, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities to go around against New York. Hill’s risk of being benched or having a total dud are normally reasonably high. However, he is a much safer NFL DFS pick this week against the Jets. He is the lone quarterback with an A grade in both value and points in Awesemo’s Rankings.
NFL DFS Running Back: Saquon Barkley — $19
Barkley is not seeing quite the usage he did during his glory days. Since returning from injury, he is averaging only 10 carries per game. However, the procession of backup quarterbacks he has played with has helped him in the pass game. He has been targeted 20 times over the past three games. That is especially helpful since the Giants are expected to get blown out in this one. That kind of target share is crucial when the Giants are playing catch up.
Things are looking good for Barkley on the ground this week as well. The Chargers are bottom five in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt and dead last in DVOA against the run. It is unlikely Barkley will handle more than a dozen or so carries, but those he does get should be very efficient. Barkley is tied with his opponent this week, Austin Ekeler, in targets since the former returned from injury. While Ekeler ranks higher for raw scoring in Awesemo’s Rankings, the salary savings and the game script benefit Barkley. Receiving backs are better plays when they are underdogs. Barkley has a B grade in both raw scoring and value this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore — $20
Moore has been the biggest beneficiary of Cam Newton’s return to Carolina. In two full games with Newton as the starter, Moore had his two best games since Week 4 — back when Sam Darnold was playing well. Newton has locked on to his old friend pretty heavily. He completed only five passes in Week 12, and four of them were to Moore.
Obviously, a quarterback who plays so poorly is not ideal for a wide receiver, but things should be much easier in Week 14. Carolina takes on the Falcons, who rank 29th in overall DVOA and 29th against the pass. If Newton — who has directed over 35% of his passes to Moore — can throw the ball at an even mediocre rate, Moore will be able to feat in this one. Moore is one of only five wide receivers with an A grade for points in Awesemo’s Rankings for Week 14. He is also the cheapest, leading to his A grade for value.
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