NFL win Totals to bet led by Steelers, Ravens
Jay Croucher, Vaughn Dalzell and Drew Dinsick break down their favorite NFL win Total bets now that the schedule has been released and markets are open.
JAY CROUCHER: A lot of people used to ask me, like, is the schedule released? Does it change, win totals or Super Bowl odds? Like, no, not really. Like, and we already knew all the teams that everyone was playing. There was definitely some stuff around the margins, the fact that you know, Baltimore don't play a single team coming off a bye this season, that kind of stuff. That does matter a little bit, but it's not gonna change a teams win total from 7 and 1/2 to 9 and 1/2 or anything. But now that we do have the schedule, Vaughn, in terms of a win total and a [INAUDIBLE] playoff bet, what are your favorites?
VAUGHN DALZELL: Yeah. I-- there's a couple that I do like here, for the over-under wins. One under. I'll say, is the Washington Commanders, may not be shocking to anybody. But you're getting plus 100 for the under there. They're one of two teams that don't have a bye week until Week 14 this year. And they play back-to-back road games three separate times this season, with one primetime game.
So the League's obviously not very excited about Washington. And it's hard to be with Sam Howell as the quarterback, Chase Young getting hurt every year. And our top conversation with Washington being surrounded by, what's Scary Terry's Fantasy value? Is it Brian Robinson or Antonio Gibson this week? So with this team only being favored three times all year and two of those times being minus 1 favorites, I think it's pretty safe to assume Washington will finish below.
And I'll give you an over. Because I have to say, guys, best draft class of the NFL, those Pittsburgh Steelers, baby.
DREW DINSICK: [LAUGHS]
Wave your towel, all right? It's a big deal. They filled a lot of needs. But I think that they still will go over their 8 and 1/2 win total. Obviously, Mike Tomlin, he's still the coach, never had a losing season. The Steelers actually-- I already bought my tickets for the home opener, Week 1 against the Niners. Put the money line in your pocket.
But the Steelers opening the season at home for the first time since 2014, It's been a long time. Their schedule's very favorable. They're favorites in more than half their games. A three-game homestand Weeks 8, 9, and 10, and only three trips out West. And they're all spread out, OK? So with new options, like Allen Robinson and Darnell Washington, already added the Pickens Freiermuth, Najee Harris, and Johnson, with Kenny Pickett's second year and first full season.
I like the Steelers over 8 and 1/2, along with the Commanders under 6 and 1/2.
DREW DINSICK: OK.
JAY CROUCHER: OK. Drew, what's your favorite win total?
DREW DINSICK: Well, typically, this time of year, I tread lightly on win totals cause I'm not really trying to, you know, lock in these kind of prices for, you know, the dirt, you know, an 8-month duration here. So-- but, you know, I'm only really looking for particularly poor prices. And I'm also really only shopping for unders because there is a long tail to almost every win total under, which is something happens to the quarterback, either, you know, poor play, he loses his job, or he gets injured.
And, honestly, the sequencing of the schedule, I was already kind of nibbling around the margins for the Patriots in ways I could try to fade that team this year. Because they are now in one of the most competitive divisions in football. And they have one of the most hellacious schedules.
Well, the sequencing, to me, does matter. now. They play elite defenses first four weeks of the season, very realistic. This team is 0 and 4 as they head into their Week 5, and people are asking questions about the future of the quarterback position. We already know that there's a lot of tension there building between Mac Jones and Belichick. And, you know, realistically, if the Patriots decide, hey, we're gonna try something different, if it's not working under Bill O'Brien, who also, by the way, starts pretty slow, you know, I think, realistically, this team could be in a deep, deep, deep hole come midseason.
You know, the it never really lets up. Like, they have a lot of home games early in the season. But their, you know, opponents at home, you know, don't really soften up until you get to Week 9, where they host the Commanders, and then Week 10 Colts, before their bye week. So I don't see a lot of wins on the schedule for the Patriots. I certainly don't see enough to get involved in the over. So give me some Patriots under. And honestly, as soon as MGM pops the alt win total unders, I'm gonna go even lower. Cause I think, realistically, there is a decent chance this team is picking in the top five next year.
JAY CROUCHER: Yes. I don't think it's very long at all that Bailey Zappe is the quarterback of that team at some point this season, be it through Mac Jones getting traded or just the season being a disaster. My favorite win total is the Baltimore Ravens, over, 9 and 1/2 wins, I mean, this team, I feel like, largely, everything went wrong for that same last season. They still got their way to 10 and 7. The defense is loaded. They very nearly beat the Bengals in Cincinnati with Tyler Huntley on the strength of their defense.
I think there was a few sneaky things as well. Like, Mark Andrews wasn't right physically all last season. He's their best field position player, best pass catcher. The fact that he should be healthier, the fact that Devin DuVernay was their number one wide receiver and now is probably gonna be number four. I think that helps. I think Lamar with the security of the contracts, I-- expecting a huge year from him.
And just the defense, I mean, there are pieces on that defense, like Kyle Hamilton. he will be better. He finished the season off really strongly. So I just think this team is loaded. I think that they are-- they're kind of being treated as in that second tier of the AFC, with teams like the Chargers and the Dolphins. And they're in behind the Jets in outright odds. I think they're a better team than the Jets. And I think they're very close to that big top three of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. So give me the Ravens, ov--