NFL Week 4 picks: Dolphins-Seahawks, Game of Week, big upset in AFC East, all the rest | Opinion

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

SEAHAWKS (3-0) at DOLPHINS (1-2)

Line: SEA by 6.

Cote’s pick: SEA 34-30.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

It’s a rare treat awaiting those brave Dolfans who venture through the pandemic to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Hall of Fame-headed Russell Wilson is making only his second appearance here and first since his 2012 rookie season. And he arrives with 14 TD passes, a record through three games, and early MVP front-runner status as the NFL season reaches its quarter mark. Chef Russ is a reason King Sport has set a three-week record for most TDs (281) and points scored (2,446). Wilson looks unstoppable, all the more so Sunday with the Fins maybe missing CB Byron Jones (again). But here’s the thing. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just as well-armed for an airborne shootout, with Seattle’s pass defense allowing a gargantuan, absurd 430.7 yards per game. No wonder the over/under on total points is a fat 54. The number for combined passing yards might catapult over 600. Punters, take the day off. Defensive coordinators, cover your eyes. Miami comes in rested after playing last Thursday, while Seahawks’ injury list is crowded. Then again, Seattle is on a 9-0 run playing in Eastern time zone. Like Miami getting six points, but, did I mention Russell Wilson? Despite his own sieve of a pass defense, he has been too good to not outscore the Dolphins.

GAME OF THE WEEK

PATRIOTS (2-1) at CHIEFS (3-0)

Line: KC by 7.

Cote’s pick: KC 31-27.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

In Bill Belichick and Andy Reid we present the coaches ranked third and sixth in all-time NFL wins. Head-to-head it’s Hoodie over Foggy Face Shield, 7-3, and don’t discount Belichick continuing that trend Sunday. Chiefs are coming off short week after big Monday statement win over Ravens, while Pats and Cam Newton have rolled up 66 points during past two games. Also, New England is on an 8-4 run in this series, and Pats have won 12 consecutive October games. Still not sure it’s a good bet to think anybody is outscoring Patrick Mahomes right now, but Belichick-plus-seven is a pretty rare gift to pass up.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BILLS (3-0) at RAIDERS (2-1)

Line: BUF by 3.

Cote’s pick: LV 30-24.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” crows the Upset Bird. “Time to roll dice on the Silver & Blaaawwwk!” Buffalo has not started a season 4-0 since 2008, and I see Vegas keeping it that way. Some of this is just a hunch the Bills and Josh Allen are due a back-to-earth performance. Some of it is believing a little bit in what Jon Gruden has going our west. Also see RB Josh Jacobs and TE Darren Waller rebounding from subpar games last week. “The Bills are due ... for a loss,” notes U-Bird with a wink. “Buffaloss. Buffalaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 4:

Colts (2-1, -2 1/2) over @Bears (3-0), 23-20: Rarely does an unbeaten team bench its starting QB, but Chitown has handed the ball from Mitch Trubisky to Nick Foles. Tells you Bears are a shaky 3-0 due to lose. I like Colts’ defense, and they’re finding balance on the attack to take heat off Philip Rivers. Indy ends six-game road losing streak.

@Bengals (0-2-1, -3) over Jaguars (1-2), 27-21: Gals tied Philly last week, now Joe Burrow is ready for next step. Watch him outpitch Gardner Minshew and bag his maiden pro win. The Jacksonville squad I saw get steamrolled at home by Miami last Thursday does not inspire faith in a big bounceback.

@Cowboys (1-2, -5) over Browns (2-1), 28-24: Dallas is a miracle from being 0-3. Cleveland has a winning record for first time since 2014. Taking Boys here to get by at home against Earthtones squad that has lost seven in a row on road, but bet line seems too big. Like the matchup of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against a porous Dallas run D. Aside to Ezekiel Elliott: Show up. Do more. Be better.

Saints (1-2, -4) over @Lions (1-2), 34-27: Drew Brees’ diminishing arm strength has become an issue, top WR Michael Thomas remains iffy to play and Saints’ defense has allowed 71 points during past two games. But! Watch Alvin Kamara go fantasy wild vs. Lions’ lousy run defense. N’Awlins headed to a 13th straight October win.

@Buccaneers (2-1, -7) over Chargers (1-2), 24-13: Looks like Bolts will be without Tyrod Taylor again as his punctured lung mends. Also looks like Tom Brady will be missing WR Chris Godwin. Tampa is winning with defense, though, not Brady, and it says here Bucs will make it a rough day for rookie QB Justin Herbert.

Ravens (2-1, -13) over @Washington (1-2), 37-10: These teams’ stadiums are only 45 miles apart along the D.C. Beltway. Baltimore scarcely bothered to show up in that blowout home loss to Kansas City on Monday night and should bounce back here. Washers on a 2-11 home skid and Crows have won seven straight on road. Dwayne Haskins looks about one pick from being benched for Alex Smith. Tempted by WAS-plus-13 but feeling a rout.

Cardinals (2-1, -3) over @Panthers (1-2), 31-16: Arizona has covered the spread in nine of its past 10 roadies. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins get the attention, but Cardbirds’ stout defense should handle a Carolina attack still missing do-everything Christian McCaffrey.

@Texans (0-3, -5) over Vikings (0-3), 28-24: Full disclosure about this unlikely Winless Bowl. I changed my mind on this pick. Talked myself out of my gut feeling. I’m superstitious about doing that, so I rarely do. But I did here. Hunched an upset by Minnesota but couldn’t justify it. Kirk Cousins has been really bad, and Vikes’ D has hugely disappointed. Still like Purples to cover. But if they win outright, the sound you here will be me screaming, “Nooooo!”

@Rams (-13) over Giants (0-3), 38-13: NYG’s offense, sans Saquon Barkley, is stuck in a deep ditch, and in last week’s 36-9 home loss to injury-depleted San Fran the Biggies looked like a team that has called it quits. Giants last faced the Rams in L.A. in 1994, and this one could get ugly.

@49ers (2-1, -7) over Eagles (0-2-1), 24-20: Expect Nick Mullens to QB Niners again in place of injured Jimmy Garopollo, but having back TE George Kittle will be huge lift. Also expect a tight game on Sunday night — and an outright upset by Philly would not shock. Carson Wentz and his injury-wracked offense have struggled, but Eagles’ defense will test Frans’ ground game and keep it close.

@Packers (3-0, -7) over Falcons (0-3), 34-28: That the Falcons are averaging 30 points a game but 0-3 shouts volumes about ATL’s bad defense and inability to hold onto leads. All of it has coach Dan Quinn nearing hot-seat territory. High-flying Aaron Rodgers against this pass defense suggests a Monday night rout (and iffy status of top WRs Julio Jones and Davante Adams complicates the pick), but Dirty Birds have won four of past five on road and watch Matt Ryan keep this one inside the point spread.

[Steelers (3-0, -1) @Titans (3-0) — postponed: Matchup of Game of the Week heft was postponed ’til later in year by Titans’ COVID outbreak. Teams have beaten opponents that are a combined 1-17, so both have proving left to do].

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Strange Week 3 for us. That 8-7 mark (plus one tie) straight-up is never gonna bring a smile, but 10-6 against the spread will. Not a wide grin, mind you. Maybe a little Mona Lisa thing. Had some tough luck with four of our winners blowing sizable fourth-quarter leads. Also gagged on Dolphins pick and Monday nighter, two games I especially hate to miss. The good news? Kept our Upset of the Week streak going with a bull’s-eye on Packers winning in New Orleans (“Aawwk!”). Also scored a trio of dogs-with-points on covers by the Vikings, Bengals and Panthers. Time to put a bow on the first quarter of the season with a big Week 4! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Jets (even) over Broncos, 19-16. Find that full preview and predix capsule here].

Week 3: 8-7-1, .533 overall; 10-6, .625 vs. spread.

Season: 30-17-1, .638 overall; 25-22-1, .532 vs. spread.

Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.

Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.