NFL Week 4 picks against the spread: Packers prolong Patriots' struggles

NFL Week 4 picks ATS: Pats' struggles continue; 49ers beat Rams again originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Week 3 of the NFL season saw several Super Bowl contenders suffer their first loss of the season, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

What kind of drama does Week 4 have in store for us?

Here are our best bets against the spread for the Week 3 games. All game times listed are ET. All betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

Time/TV channel: Thursday, Sept. 29 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime

Over/Under: 47

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa probably will play despite dealing with back and ankle injuries, but how effective will he be on a short week? The Thursday night start isn't doing the Dolphins any favors, especially after a very physical, hard-fought game against the Bills last week.

The Bengals beat the Jets for their first win of the season in Week 3. Cincy's high-powered offense finally found its groove, and this unit should continue to see improvement versus a Miami defense that has given up 413.7 yards per game (second-most in the league). The Bengals also are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home matchups.

Pick: Bengals -3.5

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Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Oct. 2 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Over/Under: 51.5

The Bills are well-equipped to slow down Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Buffalo's defense ranks No. 1 in yards allowed, No. 2 in rushing yards allowed per attempt, No. 4 in points against and No. 1 in opposing QB rating. Conversely, the Bills' high-powered offense will go up against a Ravens defense that's allowed the most total yards in the league. Baltimore needed four turnovers (all in the second half) to beat a mediocre Patriots team in Week 3. The Bills get back on track with a statement win on the road.

Pick: Bills -3

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Oct. 2 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Over/Under: 40.5

Based on the latest reports, it would be pretty surprising if Patriots quarterback Mac Jones played Sunday. That would likely thrust backup Brian Hoyer into the mix, and he has lost his last 11 starts. Even with Jones, the Patriots offense has struggled this season. How many points are they realistically going to score against a good Packers defense with Hoyer at the helm? Maybe 14? New England also is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games with just two ATS wins in its last nine games against Green Bay.

Pick: Packers -9.5

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Oct. 2 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Over/Under: 40.5

The Steelers are so bad offensively, especially with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He's averaging 189.5 passing yards per game, with a total of two touchdowns and one interception. The Steelers lost by 12 points to a mediocre Browns team in Week 3, the same Cleveland squad that the Jets scored 31 points against in a Week 2 victory. Second-year QB Zach Wilson could make his debut for the Jets. While we shouldn't expect Wilson to light up the scoresheet after missing more than a month due to a knee injury, he could be facing a banged up Steelers secondary. Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the concussion protocol and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon left Pittsburgh's Week 3 loss with a hamstring injury. If the Jets can get to 20 points, they should at least cover, and maybe even earn their first win in Pittsburgh since 2010.

Pick: Jets +3

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2)

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Time/TV channel: Monday, Oct. 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

Over/Under: 41.5

The 49ers have won six consecutive regular season games against the Rams. Los Angeles also is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 0-5 ATS in its last five matchups versus San Francisco. Conversely, the 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 5-0 ATS in their last five home matchups.

The Rams survived a valiant comeback attempt by the Falcons in a 31-27 win in Week 2. They also didn't look spectacular in a 20-10 win over the Cardinals last week. The 49ers defense is well-equipped to slow down the Rams offense. San Francisco has allowed just 28 points through three games and ranks No. 1 in passing yards allowed and No. 4 in rushing yards allowed.

Pick: 49ers -1.5