NFL Week 3: Picks gone mad! Is the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills game one of our five big upsets?
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
GAME OF THE WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BILLS (2-0) at DOLPHINS (2-0)
Line: BUF by 6.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 27-24. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!,” booms the Upset Bird. “We’re making history. Historaawwk!” This is first time in our 32 years of picks that a Dolphins game has been both our Game of the Week and Upset of the Week. It’s a rivalry duel for the AFC East lead and also Week 3’s only matchup of 2-0 teams in the parity-drenched NFL. It also presents the betting favorite for Super Bowl champ and MVP in Buffalo and Josh Allen, and the talk of the league this week in Miami after its miracle comeback at Baltimore fueled by Tua Tagovailoa’s six (!) touchdown passes. As a subtext, Sunday features the very best pass-catchers in the Bills’ Stefon Diggs and the Fins’ Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle tandem. All three were fabulous last week. Trends conflict as they often do: Buffalo has beaten Miami seven times in a row. But Dolphins have won seven in a row at home and 10 of past 11 overall. Call us a homer, but I believe a stoked Dolphins fan base makes the home-field edge real Sunday; Fins also have rest edge after Buffs played last Monday night. Also, Bills are really hurting in secondary, with three of four starters questionable to play. Miami has Xavien Howard to mark Diggs, thought Howard is questionable with a groin injury. Who will Buffalo have healthy for Hill and Waddle? Just a gut feeling, but I see Dolphins as ready to declare a really good team, one to be reckoned with. “Reckon you’re right,” nods U-Bird. “Tua Tagovailaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 3:
Thursday night: Steelers (1-1) at Browns (1-1): We had Cleveland (-4 1/2) winning at home but not covering, 20-17, vs. Pittsburgh. Find that full separate prediction capsule here.
@Bears (1-1, -2 1/2) over Texans (0-1-1), 23-16: Two sputtering offenses, but Chicago should dominate Houston’s offensive line and trouble Davis Mills. Also see a big day from RB David Montgomery vs. a subpar Texans’ run D.
@Titans (0-2, +2) over Raiders (0-2), 24-21. Upset!: These two are the big surprises (along with Cincy) among the league’s five 0-2 teams, and Ryan Tannehill’s job perhaps being in jeopardy brings tendrils of fresh smoke. I see Derrick Henry getting untracked vs. Vegas’ run defense and am feeling Tenners as home dogs.
Chiefs (2-0, -5 1/2) over @Colts (0-1-1), 27-23: Underperforming Indy expects to have star LB Shaquille Leonard back and hopes WR Michael Pittman is ready, too, but getting a first win here is a tough ask. Indy has lost 10 in a row as a home dog, and the idea of a struggling Matt Ryan outscoring Patrick Mahomes is a stretch — though I see it closer than the bet line.
@Vikings (1-1, -6) over Lions (1-1), 31-24: Detroit is 0-9-1 in its past 10 on the road, but once-woeful Lions show signs of improvement, especially with the ball. Defense is another matter. Kirk Cousins is better when the prime-time lights aren’t, and this is the game the Purples get Dalvin Cook going.
@Patriots (1-1, +3) over Ravens (1-1), 21-20. Upset!: New England doesn’t bring the same offensive firepower as Miami, but Baltimore’s defensive injuries, especially in the secondary, are still there. And Bill Belichick, always worth a look as a home dog, should find a way to take advantage. Also, Lamar Jackson might be limited by a sore throwing elbow.
Bengals (0-2, -6) over @Jets (1-1), 24-20: Couple of trends are sparring: NYJ has won 10 of past 11 at home over Bengals including last year, but Planes are on 0-11 skid vs. teams with losing record. Also opposite: Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times and defense is carrying Cincy, while Joe Flacco has been great for Jets but his defense has not been. Like homies with points and an outright upset would not shock, but see Burrow finding way.
Eagles (2-0, -6 1/2) over @Commanders (1-1), 30-17: Carson Wentz has been solid for Washington and will be amped to face the former team that discarded him, but I like Philly’ defense to make it tough on him and bag the Birds’ first 3-0 jumpout in seven years. Eagles on an 8-2 series run including a decisive ‘21 sweep, and Jalen Hurts is cooking.
@Panthers (0-2, +3) over Saints (1-1), 19-17. Upset!: N’Awlins is hopeful Alvin Kamara (ribs) will return; still, watch Carolina’s stout defense force Jameis Winston into miscues. Panthers have lost twice on last-second field goals and will get Christian McCaffrey going to get off the schneid as a solid home dog.
@Chargers (1-1, -7) over Jaguars (1-1), 34-16: Overarching this game: Justin Herbert, questionable with a rib injury. Our pick assume he will play and will pick apart Jags’ young defensive back seven — especially if Keenan Allen (hamstring) plays as hoped. Both have had extra rehab time after a Thursday game. Bolts have won eight of past nine over Jax, which has lost 18 in a row on the road.
Rams (1-1, -3 1/2) over @Cardinals (1-1), 27-23: Matthew Stafford has five INTs in two games, needs to spend some of that AT&T commercial money to buy some accuracy. But he should find his game here. Rams have beaten Cardbirds in 10 of past 11 meetings — Sean McVay has unlocked this foe — and Zona has allowed the most points in NFL (67) through two games.
@Seahawks (1-1, -1) over Falcons (0-2), 23-17: Seattle needs to find a ground game to help Geno Smith, losing safety Jamal Adams to IR is a big hurt and I’m not sure the “12th Man” is the home edge it once was. ATL is 0-2 by a total five-point margin and has an upset shot. But do you trust Marcus Mariota? (Exactly!)
@Buccaneers (2-0, -1) over Packers (1-1), 19-17: The Battle of the Bays is our Game of the Week runner-up. Why?: 1,077, the combined number of career TD passes for Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Despite that, points may be scarce. Tampa’s D (10 sacks) will make it difficult for Rodgers. And Brady might be passing to himself, with Mike Evans suspended for thuggery and Chris Godwin likely out and Julio Jones very iffy with injuries. Tee Bees have beaten Gee Bees eight of past 10 in Tampa and should do it again, with defense leading. [Warning! Disclaimer! Buyer beware!: Had Pack winning and changed my mind, a rarity. Superstitious about that. Uh-oh].
49ers (1-1, -1) over @Broncos (1-1), 24-20: Tough call on Sunday nighter and two injuries are key, with Niners TE George Kittle and Broncs WR Jerry Juedy both iffy. My tea leaf read has Kittle likelier to play and that’s big, especially with Denver banged up at safety. Sloppy Broncos’ 25 penalties lead NFL; SF is better coached. And Russell Wilson has yet to find his groove, while Frans are better with Jimmy Garoppolo. Did I mention Denver is on an 0-7 skid on Sunday nights?
Cowboys (1-1, +1) over @Giants (2-0), 19-16. Upset!: Monday nighter finds G-Men seeking first 3-0 breakout since 2009, but I’m not sold — in general or in this game. Expected season debut of WR Michael Gallup will be big lift for Dallas and Cooper Rush, and Boys defense will hound Daniel Jones, who has already been sacked eight times. Dallas is on 9-1 series run and 7-1 streak on the road, while Biggies have lost 10 in row in prime time.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
I believe this is our worst two-week start in 32 seasons of picking NFL games in the Miami Herald. We were on the wrong side of four huge comeback games last week, which didn’t help. Oddly, we were 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the prime-time games; like a vampire it was the daytime that did us in. Did have a couple of dogs-with-points in covers by the Chargers and Cowboys but the highlights pale in the overall. Must shake off this bum start and do better -- and that starts now! [Note: Find our Thursday night Steelers-Browns pick in a separate prediction capsule here.]
Week 2: 8-8, .500 overall; 5-11, .313 vs. spread.
Season: 14-17-1, .453 overall; 13-19, .406 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
