NFL Week 3 picks against the spread: Chiefs, Bills will send message with road wins

·6 min read

Week 3 picks: Chiefs, Bills will continue dominance with road wins originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The NFL season is two weeks old and the action has not disappointed. The games, for the most part, have been exciting with plenty of thrilling finishes.

The Week 3 slate should provide even more drama.

Two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league will meet in the hot South Florida sun when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in a matchup of undefeated AFC East teams. We'll also witness the latest chapter in the Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady rivalry when the Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here are our best bets against the spread for the Week 3 games. All game times listed are ET. All betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Sept. 25 at 1 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 50.5 points

Picking a road favorite of almost a touchdown is often risky, but the Colts have shown us nothing through two weeks to have any confidence in them. The Colts tied the Houston Texans 20-20 in Week 1 and then got shut out 24-0 by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. That's zero wins against two of the worst teams in the league. Injury issues for star wideout Michael Pittman Jr. and star linebacker Shaquille Leonard also is a concern.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-0 after wins against the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers. They also are 9-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 595 yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. He will carve up the Colts defense and keep Indy winless.

Don't forget Kansas City has had a couple days extra of rest after playing the Week 2 Thursday night game.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-8)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Sept. 25 at 1 p.m. on FOX

Over/Under: 53 points

This is a large spread for a Vikings team that got embarrassed by the Eagles in a 24-7 loss on "Monday Night Football" in Week 2.

The Lions gave the Eagles a much tougher game in Week 1, losing 38-35 at home. Detroit built on that encouraging performance and beat the Washington Commanders 36-27 last week. The Vikings could easily win this game, but the Lions are strong enough offensively to keep the score close. Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown has tallied 17 receptions for 180 yards and three touchdowns in two games. He's one of the most underrated players in the league and should be a tough cover for the Vikings defense.

Let's also factor in that the Lions are 2-0 ATS this season and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. The Lions went 1-1 versus the Vikings last season and won't lack confidence after a great victory in Week 2.

Pick: Lions +8

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Sept. 25 at 1 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 52.5 points

This is arguably the game of the week. These two AFC East teams are both 2-0 overall and 2-0 ATS. It's also a matchup featuring two high-scoring offenses loaded with playmakers.

That said, it's hard to bet against the Bills. They have been in a tier by themselves through two weeks. Buffalo's 41-7 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 2 was the most dominant performance of the season so far. The Bills also are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and have won seven consecutive matchups versus the Dolphins. If the Bills can hold the uber-talented Rams offense to just 10 points on the road, they can do it against the Dolphins as well. Buffalo's defense ranks No. 2 in points allowed and yards allowed.

Pick: Bills -4.5

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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Sept. 25 at 4:25 p.m. on FOX

Over/Under: 42 points

The Falcons nearly upset the defending Super Bowl champion Rams on the road in Week 2, losing 31-27. Atlanta almost pulled off a Week 1 upset, too, but came up short in a 27-26 defeat. The Falcons are 2-0 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Seahawks and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road matchups.

The Seahawks are a mess offensively. They rank 31st in points scored (24) and total offense (469 yards). Seattle's run game ranks dead last with 56 yards per game.

The Falcons are not only a good bet to cover the spread, they should win this game, too.

Pick: Falcons +2

49ers (-1.5) at Broncos

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Sept. 25 at 8:20 p.m. on NBC

Over/Under: 45 points

The Broncos are another team that hasn't impressed at all through two weeks. Russell Wilson doesn't look like himself. He has completed just 58.9 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception. He's also been sacked five times in two games.

The coaching has been absolutely abysmal. Nathaniel Hackett has very much looked like a rookie head coach. His play-calling and clock management have been brutal.

The 49ers now have Jimmy Garoppolo starting at quarterback following Trey Lance's season-ending ankle injury in Week 2. Garoppolo gives the 49ers a better chance to make a deep playoff run than Lance. He just finds ways to win games, evidenced by his 35-16 record as San Francisco's starting QB.

The 49ers also are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and have won six of their last nine matchups versus the Broncos.

Pick: 49ers -1.5

How to watch Eagles vs. Commanders

GAME TIME: The Eagles’ Week 3 game against the Commanders will be played on Sunday, Sept. 25, at FedEx Field. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET.

TV: Eagles-Commanders will air on FOX. Adam Amin (play-by-play), Mark Schlereth (analyst) and Kristina Pink (sideline) will be on the call.

STREAMING: Live stream: FoxSports.com, NFL Game Pass; Mobile app: Yahoo! Sports app, Fox Sports app, NFL mobile app; Free streaming option: FuboTV (free trial).

For more information on the Eagles vs. Commanders matchup click here.