The Ryan Fitzpatrick rushing show continued in Week 15 as the Miami Dolphins QB went Over his rushing total for the third time in four weeks. Only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards for quarterbacks since Week 12 than the Miami signal-caller, who’s averaging 36 yards on the ground over that time.
This week, Fitzpatrick will take on a Cincinnati Bengals team that has let Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray and Jackson top their rushing totals this year. Even with strong results in four games and leading his team in rushing in Weeks 12 and 14, we’re still getting an incredibly modest total of 22.5 rushing yards which we have no problem in taking the Over.
HOLD ON TIGHT
Four tight ends find themselves in the Top-10 in targets over the last two weeks: George Kittle (25), Tyler Higbee (25), Zach Ertz (23), and Travis Kelce (22). Of those four, Higbee and Ertz have the lowest receiving yardage total this week at 58.5 and 67.5 respectively.
The Rams’ Higbee has produced three 100-yard games with Gerald Everett sidelined but the latter returned to practice on Wednesday and could cut into Higbee’s snaps, making a play on the breakout TE volatile.
Ertz’s yardage might be the best value of the bunch as the Eagles TE has gone Over 67.5 yards in three of his last five weeks and faces a Dallas Cowboys Defense that’s giving up the fourth-most yards to TEs (63.7).
With Philly having to rely on its tight ends for passing production thanks to a paper-thin receiving core, the 67.5 yards looks like a steal, especially after Dallas let Higbee put up a 12/111/0 last week. Like a good wine with a great meal, look to compliment the Over with an anytime TD.
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HAWKS PICKING ON CARDS
It’s a real shame that Kyle Allen had to get benched after we cashed on his Over 0.5 interceptions in back-to-back weeks with ease. But that’s what you get when you throw 10 interceptions over your last five games.
Up next for the NFC leaders is Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie QB has thrown for just 10 INTs this year but five of those 10 have come in the last three weeks. Murray’s Over 0.5 INTs is a little juicy at -154 but the matchup favors the Over.
DIVISIONAL DOWN UNDER
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have rewarded Under backers all year. The Bills are 3-11 O/U on the season and have rattled off four straight Unders. The Bills hit the road this Saturday — where they are 1-6 O/U — and travel to New England to face the Patriots, who have hit the Under in their last three home games.
Looking at a first-half Under play, both teams sit 29th and 30th in first-half points scored since Week 13 with a combined total of 16.5 while both their defenses sit No. 1 and No. 2 in first-half points allowed. The Bills’ No. 4 defense is allowing an average of 7.1 first-half points a game with the Pats posting the next best number at 7.8 first-half points allowed.
If you’re looking for a first-half total or a full-game total, both these Top-5 defenses are worth putting your money on.
Hear us out before we try to sell you on a three-team underdog parlay in primetime: the three primetime underdogs are a combined 26-13 on the year and 10-5 over the last five weeks.
Do we have your attention yet?
Two of three teams have Top-8 defenses and the other has Aaron Rodgers.
Putting the L.A. Rams, Chicago Bears (at home) and the Green Bay Packers together on the moneyline may be a big swing, but at +3,070 it may be worth a small play. Think of all the bragging you could do over the holidays after a winner like that.