NFL Week 14 WR/CB Matchups and TE Analysis

Ian Hartitz
Rotoworld

We're on to Week 14! I'll be breaking down the WR/CB matchups all season long with a focus on figuring out who could be facing shadow coverage as well as the best and worst overall situations. We'll also briefly touch on each team's TE group.

Physical data is courtesy of NFL.com and PlayerProfiler.com, alignment information is from Pro Football Focus while each WR's target share and air yard market share is provided by the fine folks at AirYards.com.

Cowboys at Bears

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Cowboys Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Michael Gallup

73

205

4.51

21%

27%

Prince Amukamara

72

206

4.48

Slot

Randall Cobb

70

192

4.46

15%

17%

Buster Skrine

70

186

4.48

Right

Amari Cooper

73

211

4.42

21%

27%

Kyle Fuller

72

190

4.49

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Cooper (knee) suffered a brutal low hit in Week 13, but he practiced in full all week and is fully expected to start on Thursday night. The outlook is a bit less optimistic for Amukamara (concussion), who failed to get in consecutive practices to start the week. Be sure to monitor our Week 14 Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation along with estimated and official game statuses for ever injured player.

The Cowboys have featured an eerily similar target distribution between Cooper, Cobb and Gallup since their Week 8 bye:

  • Cooper: 26 receptions-350 yards-2 TD (42 targets), PPR WR15

  • Cobb: 23-395-2 (33), WR16

  • Gallup: 22-375-2 (41), WR17

Cooper's recent history in road games has been well-documented for good reason. The Cowboys' No. 1 WR has been awful away from Jerry World:

  • 6 receptions-75 yards-0 TD (10 targets)

  • 3-36-0 (5)

  • 4-32-0 (7)

  • 5-31-0 (11)

  • 6-65-1 (9)

  • 4-44-1 (5)

  • 5-48-0 (8)

  • 1-3-0 (2)

  • 4-80-1 (7)

  • 3-38-0 (8)

  • 0-0-0 (2)

Further complicating matters is the fact that the Bears Defense is far from a pushover. They've allowed the seventh-fewest PPR per game to opposing WRs and are one of just nine defenses allowing fewer than six net yards per pass attempt.

Cooper needs to be locked in as a high-end WR2 at worse considering his unique ability to absolutely blow up when things go right. Gallup and Cobb should be slightly downgraded to upside WR3s in this below-average spot. 

TE breakdown: Jason Witten doesn't have much of a ceiling considering he's yet to surpass even 60 yards in a game this season. The Cowboys' 37-year-old TE caught his first touchdown since Week 2 on Thanksgiving, something that certainly has the potential to happen again this week against a Bears Defense that has allowed the eighth-most PPR per game to opposing TEs. Treat Witten as a touchdown-dependent borderline TE1 in this spot.

Bears Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Allen Robinson

74

220

4.56

25%

35%

Byron Jones

73

199

4.48

Slot

Anthony Miller

71

201

4.55

15%

20%

Jourdan Lewis

70

195

4.54

Right

Javon Wims

75

215

4.53

6%

10%

Chidobe Awuzie

72

202

4.43

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Both A-Rob and Miller played the majority of their snaps in the slot last week. Expect to see Robinson on the outside more in Week 14 now that the Bears don't have to actively avoid stud Lions CB Darius Slay.

The Bears' No. 1 WR has been truly remarkable considering the up and (mostly) down year that Mitchell Trubisky has experienced.

Still, Robinson finds himself in a fairly tough matchup this week against a Cowboys Defense that is one of just seven units to allow fewer than 30 PPR per game to opposing WRs. Treat him as a mid-tier WR2.

And then there's Miller, who has ripped off 6-54-0, 6-77-0 and 9-140-0 performances against the Rams, Giants and Lions over the past three weeks, respectively. Only Robert Woods (99 targets), Leonard Fournette (81) and Mike Williams (69) have had more pass-game opportunities than Miller (63) without catching a touchdown. This is particularly surprising given the Bears' second-year WR scored seven touchdowns on just 54 targets as a rookie in 2018. Miller is an upside WR3 this week with the potential for more. 

Wims has posted 4-56-0, 0-0-0 and 5-56-0 lines in three games with Taylor Gabriel (concussion) sidelined this season. The second-year WR has flashed some solid route-running ability, but it's tough to expect much from the clear-cut No. 3 WR in the league's 27th-ranked scoring offense.

TE breakdown: Trey Burton (calf, IR), Adam Shaheen (foot, IR) and Ben Braunecker (concussion) are all banged up. I'd consider it a personal insult if you play either J.P. Holtz or Bradley Sowell in literally any fantasy format. 

Panthers at Falcons

Panthers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

D.J. Moore

72

210

4.42

25%

32%

Isaiah Oliver

72

201

4.5

Slot

Jarius Wright

70

180

4.42

9%

11%

Kendall Sheffield

71

193

4.4

Right

Curtis Samuel

71

196

4.31

19%

33%

Desmond Trufant

72

190

4.38

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Moore has emerged as anyone's idea of a true No. 1 WR in just his second season:

  • Targets: 115 (No. 5 among all WRs)

  • Receptions: 74 (tied for No. 5)

  • Yards: 980 (No. 4)

  • PPR: 197 (No. 9)

  • PPR per game: 16.4 (No. 11)

Somehow, Moore is just 22 years old.

Week 13 saw Samuel continue to add incomplete deep balls targets to his highlight film.

Only Odell Beckham Jr. (17) and Kenny Golladay (17) have more deep ball targets than Samuel (16) that were deemed un-catchable this season (PFF).

The Falcons produced a career-worst performance from Kyle Allen back in their dominant 29-3 victory over the Panthers in Week 11. It's unclear if we should expect the Panthers to play more or less inspired after coach Ron Rivera was fired on Tuesday.

This probably shouldn't be considered a smash spot, but continue to fire up Moore as a WR1. Samuel is more of a boom-or-bust WR3. Wright has more than 40 yards in just one game this season.

TE breakdown: Greg Olsen (concussion) is tentatively expected to miss this game after seemingly being knocked out cold on the field in Week 13. This means Ian Thomas should step into a near every-down role. He functioned as the PPR TE6 with Olsen sidelined from Weeks 14-17 last season and is rightfully one of John Daigle's top waiver-wire additions of the week at the TE position.

Falcons Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Julio Jones

75

220

4.39

22%

34%

James Bradberry

73

211

4.45

Slot

Russell Gage

72

184

4.55

11%

10%

Ross Cockrell

72

191

4.56

Right

Calvin Ridley

73

189

4.43

17%

28%

Donte Jackson

71

178

4.32

Projected shadow matchups: Julio Jones (shoulder) vs. James Bradberry

WR/CB breakdown: Christian Blake will replace Jones in three-WR sets if the Falcons' No. 1 WR is again sidelined.

Bradberry is never an easy matchup for anyone. This includes Julio, who has posted relatively tame 6-118-0, 5-80-0, 5-64-0, 4-28-1 and most-recently 6-91-0 lines in five shadow dates with Bradberry since 2017.

Of course, Jones still needs to be treated as an every-week WR1 if active. The eruption possibility is simply too high, particularly while he's in the middle of the single-longest scoreless drought of his career.

And then there's Ridley, who has been nothing short of spectacular in eight career games with at least eight targets:

  • 2018, Week 3: 7 receptions-146 yards-3 TD (8 targets), PPR WR1

  • 2018, Week 9: 6-71-1 (9), WR11

  • 2018, Week 12: 8-93-1 (13), WR10

  • 2019, Week 2: 8-105-1 (10), WR8

  • 2019, Week 5: 5-88-1 (9), WR13

  • 2019, Week 11: 8-143-1 (8), WR3

  • 2019, Week 12: 6-85-1 (14), WR8

  • 2019, Week 13: 8-91-0 (10), WR19

Ridley has never played the Panthers and not scored a touchdown. The Panthers have been much better against the pass (No. 7 in DVOA) than the run (No. 32) this season, perhaps making this more of a plus spot for Devonta Freeman. Still, they've proven to be a below-average defense against No. 2 WRs, ranking as the league's third-worst secondary in yards per game allowed to opposing second receivers. Fire up Ridley as a borderline WR1.

Gage has posted 8-76-0 and 5-52-1 lines over the past two weeks. Still, the expected return of Austin Hooper (knee) would likely soak up most of Gage's underneath target share. He's nothing more than a low-ceiling WR4.

TE breakdown: Hooper is tentatively expected to suit up this week for the first time since Week 10. The only concern for the PPR TE1 from Weeks 1-10 is whether or not he can continue to boast such a lofty ceiling in a game that the Falcons have a chance to lead. Overall, Hooper has caught 45 passes for 527 yards and five touchdowns with the Falcons trailing this season compared to 11 receptions for 81 yards and one score when they've been tied or ahead on the scoreboard.

Colts at Buccaneers

Colts Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Ashton Dulin

73

215

4.43

0%

0%

Ryan Smith

71

189

4.47

Slot

Zach Pascal

74

219

4.55

13%

21%

Sean Bunting

70

195

4.42

Right

Marcus Johnson

73

204

4.44

N/A

N/A

Carlton Davis

73

206

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Coach Frank Reich said he's hopeful to get T.Y. Hilton (calf) back at some point this season. The Colts' No. 1 WR re-aggravated his injury at practice last week. Parris Campbell (hand) is again shaping up as a true game-time decision. Limited snaps are a very real possibility for both players if they're ultimately able to suit up.

It's a shame that the week's best matchup against the Buccaneers' league-worst defense in most PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs will be wasted on the Colts, who join the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Ravens and 49ers as the only teams to feed their WRs fewer than 175 combined targets through 13 weeks.

Pascal is the only realistic fantasy WR in this offense at the moment. He seemed to benefit from playing a season-high 26 snaps in the slot last week, as the Colts' primary receiver (at the moment) caught 7-of-10 targets for 109 scoreless yards. Treat Pascal as an upside WR3 in this amazing spot.

Johnson is mildly intriguing as a low-salary punt on DraftKings, where he costs just $3,600. He's played a near every-down role in each of the past four games, but has showed off minimal upside with a low floor during his 1-9-0, 4-38-1, 0-0-0 and 4-55-0 performances.

Dulin has one target on 58 snaps this season and figures to work as this run-first offense's No. 4 pass-game option at best.

TE breakdown: Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) is done for the season.

Last week I said this:

"We actually have the entire 2017 season as evidence of what Jack Doyle is capable of achieving as the offense's undisputed No. 1 TE with Brissett under center. Overall, Brissett featured both Hilton (57-966-4 on 109 targets) and Doyle (80-690-4 on 108 targets) equally as the focal points of the passing game. Doyle finished 2017 as the overall PPR TE7 and should accordingly be treated as an upside TE1 moving forward."

Doyle went on to catch 6-of-11 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown -- good for the PPR TE2 of the week. Only the Cardinals have allowed more receiving yards per game to the TE position than the Buccaneers (Football Outsiders).

Buccaneers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Mike Evans

77

231

4.53

25%

37%

Pierre Desir

73

198

4.59

Slot

Chris Godwin

73

209

4.42

22%

23%

Kenny Moore

69

185

4.52

Right

Breshad Perriman

74

212

4.3

10%

13%

Rock Ya-Sin

72

192

4.51

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Godwin and Evans are the PPR WR2 and WR3 through 12 weeks. Clearly they need to be treated as high-end WR1s regardless of the matchup.

Their production hasn't always come together, but Jameis Winston has proven capable of enabling both to big games at least a few times this season:

  • Week 1: Evans (PPR WR80); Godwin (WR32)

  • Week 2: Evans (WR49); Godwin (WR5)

  • Week 3: Evans (WR1); Godwin (WR64)

  • Week 4: Evans (WR10); Godwin (WR1)

  • Week 5: Evans (WR106); Godwin (WR6)

  • Week 6: Evans (WR9); Godwin (WR3)

  • Bye

  • Week 8: Evans (WR1); Godwin (WR41)

  • Week 9: Evans (WR2); Godwin (WR24)

  • Week 10: Evans (WR30); Godwin (WR25)

  • Week 11: Evans (WR33); Godwin (WR21)

  • Week 12: Evans (WR41); Godwin (WR1)

  • Week 13: Evans (WR47); Godwin (WR51)

Perriman put together his best performance of the season in Week 13, catching 5-of-6 targets for 87 scoreless yards. It marked the first time all year that the Buccaneers' field-stretching WR managed to clear even 50 yards. Don't chase this production in Week 14.

Maybe coach Bruce Arians decides to jam the ball down the throats of a Colts Defense that has been better against the pass (No. 10 in DVOA) than the run (No. 21) this season. Still, the Colts' group of CBs are both undersized and slower than each of the Buccaneers' top-three WRs.

TE breakdown: O.J. Howard had his second-most productive game of the season in Week 13, catching 5-of-6 passes for 61 scoreless yards while posting a robust 83% snap rate. Cameron Brate has just two targets over the past two weeks while playing a part-time role. Ability has never been the issue with Howard; he's the only player on the Buccaneers to average double-digit yards per target since they drafted Jameis Winston in 2015. Treat the frustrating fantasy commodity as an upside TE2 this week. 

Dolphins at Jets

Dolphins Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Allen Hurns

73

198

4.55

9%

10%

Blessuan Austin

73

198

4.74

Slot

Albert Wilson

69

202

4.43

11%

6%

Brian Poole

70

209

4.55

Right

DeVante Parker

75

209

4.45

21%

33%

Maurice Canady

73

193

4.49

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for Josh Rosen midway through Week 6. Parker wasn't awful with Rosen under center, but he's taken his game to another level with Fitzmagic consistently giving the man Jay Cutler lovingly dubbed "Faster Alshon" double-digit targets per game:

  • Week 7: 5 receptions-55 yards-1 TD (10 targets), PPR WR15

  • Week 8: 6-59-0 (8), WR33

  • Week 9: 4-57-1 (6), WR21

  • Week 10: 5-69-0 (10), WR31

  • Week 11: 7-135-0 (10), WR10

  • Week 12: 6-91-0 (11), WR21

  • Week 13: 7-159-2 (10), WR1

Parker has earned weekly WR2 treatment, particularly against a Jets Defense that has been railroaded by WRs for the better part of 2019. Each of Darius Slayton (10-121-1), Golden Tate (4-95-2) and Preston Williams (5-72-2) managed to score multiple touchdowns on the Jets since Week 9.

Neither Hurns nor Wilson have managed to reach even 55 yards in a game this season. They're complete dart throws as the No. 3 and No. 4 pass-game options in this offense.

TE breakdown: Mike Gesicki is the real No. 2 receiver in Miami. The second-year "TE" has lined up in the slot or out wide on 78% of this snaps this season, giving Fitzpatrick another big-bodied contested-catch artist to play with. Gesicki has posted 6-95-0, 3-28-0, 4-18-0, 3-28-1 and most-recently 5-79-1 lines since October ended. Treat him as a low-end TE1 *if* stud safety Jamal Adams (ankle) is ultimately sidelined.

Jets Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Robby Anderson

75

190

4.41

17%

35%

Ken Webster

71

203

4.43

Slot

Jamison Crowder

68

185

4.56

22%

23%

Jomal Wiltz

70

180

4.48

Right

Demaryius Thomas

75

224

4.41

16%

20%

Nik Needham

71

194

4.67

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Anderson had a season-high 10 targets in Week 13 with Thomas appearing hobbled at times due to his nagging hamstring injury. We've seen Anderson's ceiling before and it's beautiful. Still, his enhanced target share seemed to be more a result of Darnold throwing a season-high 48 passes than a true changing of the guard.

Crowder posted a brutal 2-8-0 line on nine targets, but he's still been the most-consistent WR in this Jets Offense during Darnold's nine starts this season:

  • Week 1: PPR WR12

  • Week 6: WR19

  • Week 7: WR64

  • Week 8: WR67

  • Week 9: WR10

  • Week 10: WR11

  • Week 11: WR14

  • Week 12: WR73

  • Week 13: WR90

I don't like Crowder's bounce-back potential this week: I love it. The Dolphins have already been steamrolled by primary slot WRs such as Jarvis Landry (10-148-2), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-103-1) and even Crowder (8-83-1) himself back in Week 9.

TE breakdown: Ryan Griffin has showed off an enhanced floor in recent weeks, catching at least five passes in three of the Jets' last five games. Still, the PPR TE15 on the season has the toughest matchup of any pass-game option on the Jets, as CB/S Eric Rowe has actually shadowed and limited each of Eric Ebron (5-56-0) and Zach Ertz (3-24-0) this season. Treat Griffin as more of an upside TE2 in this spot.

49ers at Saints

49ers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Deebo Samuel

71

214

4.48

17%

22%

Eli Apple

73

199

4.4

Slot

Kendrick Bourne

73

203

4.68

10%

13%

P.J. Williams

72

194

4.57

Right

Emmanuel Sanders

71

180

4.41

19%

27%

Marshon Lattimore

72

193

4.36

Projected shadow matchups: Deebo Samuel vs. Marshon Lattimore, Emmanuel Sanders vs. Eli Apple

WR/CB breakdown: Perhaps Lattimore will track Samuel instead of Apple. Still, the Saints have been fairly consistent about utilizing their No. 1 CB on their opposition's perceived No. 1 WR. Samuel balled out in Weeks 10-11 with Sanders playing limited snaps due to injury, but the veteran WR has out-targeted the rookie in three of his four games when playing a near every-down role.

Of course, it remains to be seen if either WR will see anything resembling a WR2-caliber workload. Jimmy Garoppolo has kept seemingly the entire offense involved behind George Kittle since getting his stud TE back over the past two weeks:

Kyle Juszczyk, Matt Breida (ankle, probable) and Dante Pettis (knee, doubtful) are additional capable pass catchers that could disrupt the offense's already-volatile target share.

Both Samuel and Sanders have flashed high-end ability when given the chance this season. Unfortunately, they find themselves in a crowded run-first offense that will have its work cut out on the road against the Saints' ninth-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Treat both as boom-or-bust WR3s.

TE breakdown: Kittle's 2-17-0 dud in Week 13 marked just the third time all season he finished with fewer than six receptions. The overall PPR TE6 through 13 weeks, Kittle earned matchup-proof TE1 treatment a long time ago.

Saints Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Michael Thomas

75

212

4.57

30%

36%

Emmanuel Moseley

71

184

4.47

Slot

Tre'Quan Smith

74

203

4.49

6%

8%

K'Waun Williams

69

189

4.58

Right

Ted Ginn

71

180

4.43

11%

30%

Richard Sherman

75

195

4.6

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The absence of Sherman (knee) would be a boost for the Saints Offense, as PFF's No. 3 overall CB has largely regained his elite form in his ninth season.

Still, it's not like Thomas should be treated as anything other than a top-three WR regardless of who is lining up across from him. Week 13 marked just the first time all season that he finished with fewer than 50 yards, as Thomas caught 6-of-8 targets for 48 scoreless yards in a game that saw the Saints run just 50 total plays on offense.

Through 12 games Thomas has caught 110 passes for 1,290 yards and six touchdowns. His 16-game pace is a riveting 147-1,720-8 line, which would break Marvin Harrison's single-season record for 143 catches.

Smith hasn't cleared 15 yards or three targets in a game since returning in Week 10. Ginn has more goose eggs (3) than games with over 50 yards (1) this season. Neither are realistic fantasy options as the offense's No. 4 and 5 pass-game options in this tough matchup.

TE breakdown: Jared Cook had a bad case of the drops in Week 13, ultimately costing himself a chance to extend his touchdown streak to three games. Still, he managed to catch three passes for 85 yards anyways. Only Mark Andrews has more PPR than Cook since the Saints TE returned from injury in Week 10. Continue to lock Cook into lineups as a TE1 despite the tough matchup against the league's second-best defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to opposing TEs.

Lions at Vikings

Lions Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Kenny Golladay

76

218

4.5

20%

31%

Xavier Rhodes

73

210

4.43

Slot

Danny Amendola

70

186

4.68

17%

15%

Mackensie Alexander

70

190

4.54

Right

Marvin Jones

74

200

4.46

19%

26%

Trae Waynes

72

186

4.31

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Golladay caught 4-of-5 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving, proving plenty capable of balling out even with third-string QB David Blough under center. The Lions hardly abandoned their downfield-oriented attack, as Blough posted a respectable 13% deep-ball rate in his first career start (PFF).

Blough's target distribution was as follows:

The absence of Hockenson (ankle, IR) throws a wrench into things, but at least Blough appears to be averse to consistently checking the ball down.

This is important because the Lions are set up to smash this week against a secondary that has been roasted by plenty of WRs (particularly Jones) this season:

  • Rhodes: PFF's No. 114 ranked CB among 124 qualified corners

  • Alexander: No. 33

  • Waynes: No. 79

A road matchup into Minnesota is different than a home spot against the Bears. Still, Blough showed enough poise and arm talent to not completely dismiss the pass-game options in this offense moving forward. Treat Golladay and Jones as boom-or-bust WR3s, while Amendola is better treated as a high-end WR4.

TE breakdown: Jesse James and Logan Thomas are expected to split snaps in Hockenson's absence. I'm inclined to trust the latter TE as the superior streamer. Still, neither player has managed to surpass 25 yards in a game this season. They carry the lowest of floors in this matchup against Harrison Smith and company, but their near-minimum salaries across the DFS industry certainly are intriguing.

Vikings Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Stefon Diggs

72

195

4.46

21%

40%

Darius Slay

72

192

4.36

Slot

Bisi Johnson

72

204

4.51

13%

16%

Justin Coleman

71

185

4.53

Right

Adam Thielen

75

200

4.54

18%

26%

Amani Oruwariye

74

205

4.47

Projected shadow matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Darius Slay 

WR/CB breakdown: Diggs and Slay are plenty familiar with each other at this point, as they've faced off four times since the Vikings' stud WR entered the league in 2015.

  • Week 6, 2015: 6 receptions-108 yards-1 touchdown (9 targets)

  • Week 4, 2017: 5-98-0 (7)

  • Week 12, 2017: 5-66-0 (7)

  • Week 16, 2018: 2-10-1 (6)

Diggs gained at least 140 yards in each of Weeks 6-8. He's since failed to clear even 50 yards in three of four games. Diggs still has a sky-high ceiling; only Terry McLaurin (44%), Tyreek Hill (43%) and Courtland Sutton (42%) own a higher percentage of their team's air yard market share than Diggs (40%). Still, this is a tough matchup, and Kirk Cousins hasn't gone out of his way to feed Diggs copious amounts of targets with Adam Thielen (hamstring) sidelined. Treat the Vikings' No. 1 WR as more of an upside WR2 vs. a locked-in WR1 in this tough draw.

Thielen would be in a position to absolutely ball out if active against Coleman, who joins Logan Ryan as the only CBs to allow over 500 yards while in slot coverage this season (PFF). Be sure to monitor our industry-leading news feed to get a better idea of Thielen's health in the lead up to Sunday.

Bisi Johnson hasn't cleared 50 receiving yards in a game this season. Laquon Treadwell's 58-yard touchdown on Monday night was entirely thanks to busted coverage. Neither are realistic fantasy options this week.

TE breakdown: Kyle Rudolph has scored six touchdowns in his last six games. He doesn't carry much of a yardage ceiling at this point of his career, but the 30-year-old TE has demonstrated he's far from washed with multiple dope one-handed catches this season. Treat him as a TE1 against the Lions' 27th-ranked defense in DVOA against the position. Irv Smith has flashed at times, but he carries a low floor with three or fewer targets in all but three games this season.

Broncos at Texans

Broncos Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Courtland Sutton

75

218

4.54

24%

42%

Bradley Roby

71

194

4.39

Slot

DaeSean Hamilton

73

203

4.57

9%

9%

Vernon Hargreaves

70

204

4.5

Right

Tim Patrick

77

210

4.52

10%

14%

Johnathan Joseph

71

193

4.32

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Sutton caught a pair of touchdowns in Casey Hayward's shadow coverage last week, one of which was a catch-of-the-season candidate that featured the second-year WR pull in an end-zone fade with just one hand.

Here's the only problem: volume. Sutton doesn't have double-digit targets in a single game this season somehow, and Drew Lock's target distribution in his first career start didn't exactly stir up much optimism for a dramatic change:

Sutton is the PPR WR16 on the season and has earned auto-start WR2 treatment, but everyone else in this passing game is off the fantasy radar.

TE breakdown: Fant's near every-down role and enhanced target share are officially a thing of the past due to both the presence of Lock under center as well as the return of Heuerman from injury. The Broncos' first-round TE is a promising future prospect, but it's impossible to treat him as anything other than an upside TE2 at best with these types of volume concerns.

Texans Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

DeAndre Hopkins

73

214

4.57

31%

34%

Chris Harris 

69

194

4.48

Slot

Kenny Stills

72

194

4.38

13%

15%

Will Parks

73

194

4.68

Right

Will Fuller

72

186

4.32

21%

30%

Isaac Yiadom

73

190

4.52

Projected shadow matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Chris Harris

WR/CB breakdown: Hopkins won his fair share of battles in his Sunday night matchup against Stephon Gilmore and also got credited for a passing touchdown when an option lateral to Deshaun Watson wound up going forward.

We haven't seen quite the same ceiling from Nuk throughout the season, but he's on pace to catch 115 passes for 1,204 yards and eight touchdowns. The matchup is far from ideal, although we've also seen the likes of Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, John Brown and Odell Beckham get the better of Harris for big plays this season. The PPR WR4 through 13 weeks, Hopkins is locked in as a high-end WR1 with cozy matchups after this week.

Fuller came oh so close to reeling in a deep touchdown against the Patriots, but couldn't maintain possession due to both the ground as well as good coverage. Stills did manage to convert his shot play into six points. Together, they combined for six targets.

Watson is always capable of pulling off the impossible and creating chunk plays out of thin air.

But Stills and Fuller don't carry much of a floor as long as nearly all of the offense's short and intermediate targets continue to flow through Nuk as well as the team's RBs and TEs. Treat both of these elite field-stretching WRs as boom-or-bust WR3s.

TE breakdown: Darren Fells has played at least 60% of the offense's snaps in every game since Week 2. He's managed to score seven touchdowns this season, but has two or fewer receptions in 9-of-12 games. Fells is a touchdown-dependent TE2 that is worthy of streaming over similar options in worse offenses.

Ravens at Bills

Ravens Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Seth Roberts

74

196

4.46

9%

9%

Levi Wallace

72

179

4.63

Slot

Willie Snead

71

195

4.62

10%

12%

Taron Johnson

71

192

4.5

Right

Marquise Brown

69

166

 

21%

27%

Tre'Davious White

71

192

4.47

Projected shadow matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Tre'Davious White

WR/CB breakdown: Brown is the only WR worthy of consideration in this offense. He has a brutal matchup against White, who has gotten the better of most of his shadow dates this season:

Hollywood has lived up to his DeSean Jackson comp, circulating some electrifying performances with some low-scoring weeks.

  • Week 1: 4 receptions-147 yards-2 TD (5 targets), PPR WR5

  • Week 2: 8-86-0 (13), WR22

  • Week 3: 2-49-0 (9), WR65

  • Week 4: 4-22-0 (7), WR60

  • Week 5: 3-22-1 (5), WR32

  • Week 9: 3-48-0 (4), WR49

  • Week 10: 4-80-1 (4), WR14

  • Week 11: 2-23-0 (4), WR72

  • Week 12: 5-42-2 (7), WR9

  • Week 13: 1-1-0 (2), WR108

Obviously the Ravens' run-first offense doesn't help Brown's floor. He's a boom-or-bust WR3 in this spot.

TE breakdown: Mark Andrews trails only Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce in PPR since the Ravens' Week 8 bye. He's locked in as a matchup-proof top-five option at the position. Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle continue to play plenty of snaps and each see a few targets every game, but there's a goose-egg floor associated with both.

Bills Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

John Brown

70

179

4.34

24%

39%

Jimmy Smith

74

211

4.46

Slot

Cole Beasley

68

177

4.54

21%

18%

Marlon Humphrey

72

197

4.41

Right

Isaiah McKenzie

67

173

4.41

10%

5%

Marcus Peters

72

197

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Smokey Brown has shown a bit of a floor in the last two weeks, posting 2-39-1 and 3-26-0 lines on a combined eight targets. Of course, Brown did add a 28-yard touchdown pass on Thanksgiving. The lack of volume can be explained by Josh Allen attempting just 25 and 24 passes in Week 12 and 13, respectively, as the Bills managed to win both games by double digits.

Meanwhile, Cole Beasley has ripped off a 6-76-1 line as well as a revenge-fueled 6-110-1 performance over the past two weeks. He's worked as the PPR WR15 since the Bills' Week 6 bye.

The only problem for both WRs is the fairly brutal end of the season stretch:

  • Week 14 vs. Ravens: No. 15 defense in PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs

  • Week 15 at Steelers: No. 11

  • Week 16 at Patriots: No. 1

Peters will give up the occasional big play, but the Ravens have still been a much stronger secondary than we saw in the first half of the season since both acquiring his services as well as getting Smith back in the lineup.

Brown is better approached as an upside WR2 in this spot, while Beasley is more of a low-end WR3 in the slot against Humphrey.

McKenzie (45% snaps in Week 13) split snaps with Robert Foster (42%) last week. Neither are realistic fantasy options.

TE breakdown: Dawson Knox is always good for an entertaining reception, run after the catch or big block on a weekly basis. Still, he's surpassed 35 yards just once since the Bills' Week 6 bye and has scored twice all season. Knox is a low-end TE2 with Tyler Kroft also a threat to siphon away a target or two.

Bengals at Browns

Bengals Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Auden Tate

77

228

4.68

18%

30%

Greedy Williams

74

185

4.37

Slot

Tyler Boyd

73

197

4.58

24%

26%

T.J. Carrie

72

206

4.48

Right

John Ross

71

188

4.22

19%

35%

Denzel Ward

71

183

4.32

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: My name is Ian and I'm an Auden Tate stan.

The Bengals' second-year WR has caught at least three passes and gained 50-plus receiving yards in all but two games this season with Andy Dalton under center. No, Tate doesn't have the greatest separation skills in the world, but the 6-foot-5 and 228-pound beast has a massive size advantage over the Browns' speedy, but pint-sized, CBs. There might not be a huge ceiling for anyone inside of this dreadful offense, but Tate is worthy of borderline WR3 treatment.

Boyd worked as the PPR WR16 in Weeks 1-8 with Dalton and immediately roasted the Jets with a 5-59-1 line on 10 targets in Week 13. Continue to treat this passing game's undisputed No. 1 pass-game target as a mid-tier WR2 for another week before Boyd hits the fantasy bench in Week 15 against the Patriots.

Bengals WR A.J. Green (ankle) doesn't seem likely to suit up again this season. John Ross (clavicle, IR) is expected to be active in Week 14, but coach Zac Taylor noted, "We will have to ease him back in. How much of a role he has? I don’t know if we’ll just start and throw him out there and play him 65 plays. He’ll have a role and he’ll have a spot on the offense moving forward for sure." Neither Ross nor Alex Erickson are worthy of fantasy consideration with limited snaps for each all but certain.

TE breakdown: Both Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah dropped touchdowns last week. Luckily, you've been reading this column all season and wouldn't have dreamed to start two players that have combined for three games with more than 30 yards through 13 weeks.

Browns Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Odell Beckham

71

198

4.43

25%

37%

William Jackson

72

189

4.37

Slot

Jarvis Landry

71

205

4.65

26%

30%

Darqueze Dennard

71

199

4.51

Right

Rashard Higgins

73

196

4.64

5%

7%

B.W. Webb

70

184

4.51

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Jackson actually shadowed for the first time this season against Robby Anderson in Week 13, but was drummed for a 7-101-0 line on 10 targets. The Bengals' long-time starting CB is better than that performance suggests, but he's still not someone that would warrant downgrading OBJ's projection.

That person is apparently Baker Mayfield. I couldn't have been more wrong in assuming that moving from Eli Manning to Mayfield would be a positive for Beckham's downfield production. Instead, OBJ (17) is tied with Kenny Golladay (17) for the most deep ball targets (20-plus yards downfield) that were deemed un-catchable this season (PFF). Beckham (26%) ranks fourth worst in rate of catchable deep ball targets among 53 qualified players, so this isn't a case of ridiculous volume like it is for Golladay (45%).

The Bengals have actually allowed the 10th-fewest PPR per game to opposing WRs this season. I'll be painting on my clown face as I lock OBJ into season-long lineups this weekend, but his lack of production to this point makes him impossible trust as anything more than an upside WR2.

Meanwhile, all Landry has done since the Browns' Week 7 bye is work as the PPR WR2 behind only Mike Evans. Mayfield has fed his trusty slot WR at least 10 targets in 5-of-6 games during this stretch. The Bengals held Landry to pedestrian 3-30-0 and 4-47-0 performances last season, but this still isn't a matchup to fear. Landry has earned borderline WR1 consideration and obviously needs to be started in any league with full PPR scoring.

Higgins (42% snaps in Week 13) is losing snaps to KhaDarel Hodge (30%). Neither are on the fantasy radar.

TE breakdown: It remains to be seen when David Njoku (wrist, IR) will be activated. He could be a steal off the waiver wire if he's able to get a full-time role by the time the Browns take on the Cardinals in Week 15. For now, none of Njoku, Demetrius Harris nor Ricky Seals-Jones are realistic fantasy options due to the likelihood of a committee of sorts.

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Redskins at Packers

Redskins Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Terry McLaurin

72

208

4.35

22%

44%

Kevin King

75

200

4.43

Slot

Trey Quinn

71

203

4.55

13%

12%

Tramon Williams

71

194

4.62

Right

Kelvin Harmon

74

221

4.6

8%

12%

Jaire Alexander

70

196

4.38

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The artist known as Scary Terry or McLaurin F1 (depending on what you're in to) turned in the worst performance of his career in Week 13, catching 2-of-4 targets for eight scoreless yards. He's now finished with fewer than 75 receiving yards in six consecutive games. More problematic is the consistently low number of targets: McLaurin has six or fewer pass-game opportunities in five of his last six games.

Dwayne Haskins didn't feed anyone more than five targets in Week 13. He's thrown for 144, 214, 156 and 147 yards in four starts this season. Throw in injuries to both Quinn (concussion) and Paul Richardson (hamstring), and this is clearly a passing game to stay far, far away from.

TE breakdown: Jeremy Sprinkle put together a season-best performance in Week 13 by catching 2-of-4 targets for 36 scoreless yards. He's not anywhere near the fantasy grid with fewer than three receptions in every game this season.

Packers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Allen Lazard

75

225

4.55

11%

19%

Quinton Dunbar

74

201

4.49

Slot

Geronimo Allison

75

196

4.67

11%

11%

Jimmy Moreland

70

179

4.51

Right

Davante Adams

73

212

4.56

28%

35%

Fabian Moreau

72

206

4.35

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Aaron Rodgers continues to feed Adams the ball at a ridiculous rate. Nobody else in the offense has managed to see anything resembling consistent volume in four games since Adams returned in Week 9:

Adams has posted 7-41-0, 7-118-0, 7-43-1 and 6-64-2 performances since returning. He's a top-five play this week at home against one of just eight defenses to allow at least 15 touchdowns to opposing WRs this season.  

The Packers continue to feature a rotation of sorts behind Adams, as none of Allison (63% snaps in Week 13), Lazard (55%), MVS (27%) nor Kumerow (21%) have managed to secure anything resembling a near every-down role. Lazard is the only one worthy of fantasy consideration due to his proven downfield chemistry with Rodgers, but there's still a low floor in this passing game as long as Adams continues to dominate targets. The team's various RBs and TEs are also plenty involved.

TE breakdown: Graham has 20 or fewer yards in four of his last five games and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7. More troubling is his part-time role of late, as Graham has posted pedestrian 48% and 42% snap rates over the last two weeks. The annoying presence of Lewis renders Graham as nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2 despite the plus matchup.

Chargers at Jaguars

Chargers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Andre Patton

74

200

4.59

6%

14%

Tre Herndon

71

186

4.52

Slot

Keenan Allen

74

206

4.71

25%

31%

D.J. Hayden

71

191

4.45

Right

Mike Williams

76

218

4.59

17%

33%

A.J. Bouye

72

186

4.6

Projected shadow matchups: Mike Williams vs. A.J. Bouye

WR/CB breakdown: Only Robert Woods (99 targets) and Leonard Fournette (81) have more pass-game opportunities without a receiving touchdown than Williams (69). The Chargers' No. 2 WR makes at least one ridiculous circus catch per week, but the Chargers' plethora of capable threats at RB, TE and WR have made this a crowded passing attack. Williams is too good to go much longer without a score, although it won't be the easiest task against Bouye.

The Jaguars' No. 1 CB hasn't exactly shut down every WR he's shadowed this season, but Bouye has at the very least made life difficult for some of the game's best:

Williams is a boom-or-bust WR3, while Allen is back to his WR2 ways with at least six catches in three consecutive weeks. Somehow, Allen only caught more than five passes in a game once in Weeks 4-9. Rivers' undisputed No. 1 WR is capable of winning pretty much any matchup, but Hayden does deserve credit for allowing the 10th-fewest yards per cover snap in the slot among 49 qualified corners.

Patton has caught one pass since Week 4. Regardless, he's played at least 60% of the offense's snaps in five consecutive games. It seems ridiculous that Patton continues to play more often than Austin Ekeler, but hey, what do I know.

TE breakdown: Henry posted a 2-10-0 dud in Week 13, exemplifying the low floor associated with any pass-game option in this crowded offense. Still, Henry (52 targets) joins Travis Kelce (57) and Zach Ertz (60) as the only TEs with at least 50 targets since the Chargers got their stud TE back in Week 6. Continue to fire up Henry as a top-five option at the TE position regardless of the matchup.

Jaguars Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

D.J. Chark

75

199

4.34

21%

35%

Casey Hayward

71

192

4.57

Slot

Dede Westbrook

72

178

4.44

19%

17%

Desmond King

70

201

4.65

Right

Chris Conley

74

213

4.35

15%

29%

Brandon Facyson

74

197

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: D.J. Chark vs. Casey Hayward

WR/CB breakdown: Minshew Mania is back!

The Jaguars' fleet-footed rookie QB fed the following players at least 10 targets in his eight starts this season from Weeks 2-9:

Chark worked as the PPR WR9 during this stretch. Hayward isn't an easy matchup for anyone, but we just saw the Chargers' No. 1 CB get roasted for two touchdowns in Week 13 by a similar big-bodied WR with great contested-catch ability in Courtland Sutton.

Treat Chark as a borderline WR1 in this spot, while Westbrook is more of an upside WR3, and Conley is a boom-or-bust WR4. Still, expectations for each should be managed considering it wouldn't be surprising if the Jaguars' run-first offense leans on Fournette against a Chargers Defense that has been just as bad against the pass (No. 22 in DVOA) as they have against the run (No. 24)

TE breakdown: Nick O'Leary is working as the Jaguars' starting TE, although Ben Koyack and Charles Jones are siphoning away some snaps as well. Overall, O'Leary has caught 5-of-8 targets for 42 scoreless yards since joining the Jaguars in Week 12. He's not a realistic fantasy option against Derwin James and company.

Steelers at Cardinals

Steelers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Diontae Johnson

70

183

4.53

16%

19%

Byron Murphy

71

190

4.55

Slot

JuJu Smith-Schuster

73

215

4.54

17%

24%

Kevin Peterson

70

181

4.66

Right

James Washington

71

213

4.54

15%

28%

Patrick Peterson

72

219

4.34

Projected shadow matchups: James Washington vs. Patrick Peterson

WR/CB breakdown: It's certainly possible that the Cardinals choose to post Peterson up as the defense's left CB; this is what they did in Week 11 against the 49ers and again in Week 13 against the Rams. JuJu (knee) should escape Peterson's shadow if active, as the Cardinals haven't played their No. 1 CB in the slot for more than 10 snaps in a single game this season.

Either way, Washington is clearly this offense's No. 1 WR for as long as Smith-Schuster remains sidelined. All Washington has done recently is ball out to the highest of levels:

  • Week 9: 4 receptions-69 yards-0 TD (4 targets), PPR WR34

  • Week 10: 6-90-1 (7), WR12

  • Week 11: 3-49-0 (5), WR49

  • Week 12: 3-98-1 (7), WR15

  • Week 13: 4-111-1 (4), WR11

Still, this is a tough matchup that will be made even more difficult due to volume concerns. Devlin Hodges AKA Duck has attempted just 20 and 21 passes in his two starts this season, so Washington will need to continue to make the most out of his scarce opportunities in order to function as a WR2 for another week.

Diontae Johnson has surpassed 30 yards in just one of his last five games. Tevin Jones (39% snaps in Week 13), Johnny Holton (31%) and Deon Cain (26%) split snaps as the offense's No. 3 WR last week. None are realistic fantasy options.

TE breakdown: Vance McDonald continues to play a near every-down role, but he's posted pedestrian 3-19-0, 5-20-1, 3-11-0, 3-33-0, 1-1-0, and 3-21-0 lines since the Steelers' Week 7 bye. Of course, he now finds himself in TE utopia. Treat McDonald as a low-end TE1 against a Cardinals Defense that has allowed their opponent's TE to finish among the position's top-10 performers in all but two games this season.

Cardinals Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Pharoh Cooper

71

203

4.7

10%

14%

Steven Nelson

70

197

4.49

Slot

Larry Fitzgerald

75

225

4.48

19%

21%

Mike Hilton

69

178

4.6

Right

Christian Kirk

71

201

4.47

23%

30%

Joe Haden

71

193

4.62

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Kyler Murray and company just couldn't get the passing game going in Week 13 against the Rams. Up next is another difficult matchup against a Steelers Defense that has playmakers at all three levels of the unit.

The Steelers secondary ranks towards the top of the league in a variety of pass defense metrics:

  • PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs: No. 11

  • Pass DVOA: No. 4

  • DVOA against TEs: No. 3

  • Net yards allowed per pass attempt: No. 4

  • Interceptions: No. 2

Kirk is one of 16 WRs averaging more than 8.5 targets per game, while Fitzgerald boasts a massive size advantage in the slot over Hilton. Treat each as upside WR3s in this less-than-ideal spot.

Each of Cooper (59% snaps in Week 13), Damiere Byrd (38%), Andy Isabella (31%) and Trent Sherfield (2%) are splitting snaps as the offense's No. 3 and No. 4 WRs. They aren't realistic fantasy options in this tough spot.

TE breakdown: Neither Charles Clay nor Maxx Williams have more than three targets in a game this season. They're off the fantasy radar.

Titans at Raiders

Titans Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

A.J. Brown

72

226

4.49

16%

23%

Daryl Worley

73

204

4.64

Slot

Adam Humphries

71

195

4.58

14%

13%

Lamarcus Joyner

68

184

4.55

Right

Corey Davis

75

209

4.53

16%

25%

Trayvon Mullen

73

199

4.46

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Adjusted yards per attempt is a better indicator of QB success than simply yards per attempt. This is because the former statistic weights touchdowns and interceptions to get a better idea of the signal caller's true performance.

Ryan Tannehill has attempted 29, 33, 39, 19, 18 and 22 passes in his six starts this season. Clearly the Titans' offense goes through Derrick Henry.

With that said: Tannethrill has operated as one of the single-most efficient QBs in the entire league. Only Kirk Cousins (9.5) has averaged more adjusted yards per attempt than Tannehill (9.44) this season. Patrick Mahomes (9.36), Russell Wilson (9.32) and Matthew Stafford (9.12) are the only other QBs over nine.

Of course, the Titans' trio of talented WRs will need to continue to make the most out of their limited opportunities as long as the offense continues to flow through Henry. Tannehill's reluctance to overly feature one single pass-game weapon hasn't helped the fantasy stock of these WRs.

The Titans take on the Raiders (No. 20 in fewest PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs), Texans (No. 21) and Saints (No. 23) through the fantasy playoffs. Both Brown and Davis are boom-or-bust WR3s that could be so much more with enhanced workloads. Humphries is off the fantasy grid with a combined six targets over the team's past three games.

TE breakdown: Jonnu Smith is incredibly talented with the ball in his hands, but the Titans haven't gone out of their way to get him involved. This was evident with Smith posting 94% and 87% snap rates over the past two weeks ... but failing to record a single reception. Treat him as a boom-or-bust TE2 against a Raiders Defense that is one of just seven units to allow at least 60 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. 

Raiders Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Tyrell Williams

75

204

4.48

17%

36%

Tye Smith

72

195

4.6

Slot

Keelan Doss

74

211

4.61

7%

12%

Logan Ryan

71

191

4.56

Right

Zay Jones

74

201

4.45

9%

10%

Adoree' Jackson

70

186

4.42

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Williams has six or fewer targets in every game since returning from injury in Week 8. He has more than twice as many games with fewer than 50 yards (7) than with more (3). Jones hasn't managed to clear 30 yards or reach five targets in a game since debuting for the Raiders in Week 8.

Derek Carr simply hasn't made a habit of feeding any single receiver this season. Darren Waller is the only player with more than eight targets in a game.

Doss (55% snaps in Week 13) worked as the offense's No. 3 WR with Hunter Renfrow (lung, ribs) sidelined last week. Still, Marcell Ateman (7%) also saw some snaps, and the offense leaned on two-TE sets featuring both Darren Waller (92%) and Foster Moreau (48%). Carr's aforementioned reluctance to hone in on any one receiver, combined with coach Jon Gruden's assertion that they would be changing up the snaps at the No. 3 WR spot moving forward, makes these complementary WRs well off the fantasy radar.

The matchup against the Titans' banged-up secondary isn't an issue, but there are better WRs out there then these low-volume Raiders that could see even fewer snaps than normal in one of the week's slowest-paced games between two run-first offenses.

TE breakdown: Waller broke out of his mini slump by catching 7-of-9 targets for 100 scoreless yards against the Chiefs in Week 13. Like Williams, Waller is a talented receiver that simply needs more targets to rack up fantasy production. The talented TE has posted 7-70-0, 6-63-0, 13-134-0, 7-53-0, 7-126-2, 2-11-1, 5-78-0 and 7-100-0 lines in eight games with at least seven targets this season. The problem is that Waller has fewer than seven targets in half of his games since Williams returned in Week 8. Treat the Raiders' No. 1 pass-game option as a low-end TE1 against the Titans' 26th-ranked defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to opposing TEs.

Chiefs at Patriots

Chiefs Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Demarcus Robinson

73

203

4.59

11%

18%

Jonathan Jones

69

186

4.33

Slot

Sammy Watkins

73

211

4.43

21%

22%

Stephon Gilmore

72

190

4.4

Right

Tyreek Hill

70

185

4.34

23%

43%

Jason McCourty

70

193

4.35

Projected shadow matchups: Sammy Watkins vs. Stephon Gilmore

WR/CB breakdown: Last season the Patriots chose to consistently bracket Hill and cover him with two defenders while Gilmore was tabbed with erasing Watkins by himself. J.C. Jackson will continue to play a near every-snap role if McCourty (groin) is again sidelined.

This strategy helped limit Hill to a pedestrian 1-42-0 line on three targets in the 2018 AFC Championship. Of course, the strategy also resulted in Hill posting a ridiculous 7-142-3 line on 12 targets in Week 6 of last season. Hill needs to be treated as a top-five fantasy WR whenever Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The matchup obviously isn't ideal, but TyFreak is still my No. 5 overall WR this week behind only Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams and Michael Thomas.

Watkins posted 2-18-0 and 4-114-0 lines in two games against the Patriots last season. The latter performance actually featured Watkins win some one-on-one battles against Gilmore, but it's unwise to expect this type of production again. The Chiefs' No. 2 WR has just six combined targets over the last two weeks and hasn't reached even 70 yards in a game since Week 1.

Robinson (57% snaps in Week 13) continues to lose reps to Mecole Hardman (39%), Byron Pringle (7%) and even Gehrig Dieter (4%). None are recommended fantasy options in this brutal spot.

Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in consecutive weeks. His previous career-low mark in full games was 243 yards. Sunday should be a great test to see if it's time to worry.

TE breakdown: Travis Kelce could've had a gigantic Week 13 if Mahomes had been a bit more accurate on a couple downfield throws to this trusty TE. Still, the fact that Kelce even gets these sorts of targets is unique in it of itself. Overall, Kelce joins Mark Andrews as the league's only TEs with double-digit deep-ball targets this season (PFF). The Patriots limited Kelce to 5-61-0 and 3-23-1 lines last season, but continue to fire him up as a no doubt top-three TE.

Patriots Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Mohamed Sanu

74

211

4.67

14%

12%

Charvarius Ward

73

198

4.49

Slot

Julian Edelman

70

198

4.57

25%

30%

Tyrann Mathieu

69

186

4.5

Right

Phillip Dorsett

70

185

4.33

13%

21%

Bashaud Breeland

71

197

4.62

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: There is one consistent player in the Patriots Offense: Edelman.

  • Targets: 124 (No. 2 among all WRs)

  • Receptions: 82 (No. 3)

  • Receiving yards: 915 (No. 10)

  • Receiving TDs: 5 (tied for No. 16)

  • PPR: 209.3 (No. 5)

  • PPR per game: 17.4 (No. 5)

Continue to treat Edelman as a locked in WR1. Honey Badger has allowed 22-of-30 targets to be caught for 165 yards and a score in slot coverage this season.

Edelman (92% snaps in Week 13), Dorsett (71%) and Jakobi Meyers (70%) worked in three-WR sets last week ahead of N'Keal Harry (25%) and Sanu (22%). I tentatively expect Sanu to get back to playing a majority of the offense's snaps after having another week to get closer to full health. Still, the lack of clarity around the workload of these complementary WRs takes them off the fantasy radar. This is particularly true against a Chiefs Defense that has been significantly better against the pass (No. 6 in DVOA) than the run (No. 30).

TE breakdown: Ben Watson no longer has an every-down role with Matt LaCosse seeing more work. Neither are realistic fantasy options in this crowded and minimally-productive passing game. 

Seahawks at Rams

Seahawks Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

D.K. Metcalf

75

228

4.33

20%

27%

Troy Hill

70

182

4.55

Slot

Tyler Lockett

70

182

4.4

21%

27%

Jalen Ramsey

73

209

4.41

Right

Josh Gordon

75

225

4.57

15%

19%

Nickell Robey-Coleman

67

169

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: Tyler Lockett vs. Jalen Ramsey

WR/CB breakdown: Lockett (88% snaps in Week 13) and Metcalf (80%) are each playing full-time roles, but Gordon (36%) loses plenty of snaps every week to the likes of Malik Turner (20%), David Moore (13%) and Jaron Brown (11%). None of these auxiliary WRs are realistic fantasy options.

Lockett has struggled recently, posting 1-38-0 and 0-0-0 lines on just five targets since the Seahawks' Week 11 bye. He's battled both a leg injury as well as an illness, but the limited opportunities are still surprising given he's played a near every-down role. Things won't be easy in a potential shadow date with Ramsey, who played a majority of his snaps in the slot against JuJu Smith-Schuster back in Week 10.

People enjoy laughing at Metcalf for the things he can't do. Ultimately, the rookie is the PPR WR29 on the season and possesses one of the position's most fantasy-friendly roles thanks to this plethora of deep-ball and end-zone targets.

The Seahawks' run-first offense continues to make it difficult to trust any of their WRs as consistent fantasy options. Both Lockett and Metcalf are better treated as boom-or-bust WR3s in this less-than-ideal matchup, although their ceiling is the roof if Russell Wilson finds himself in a shootout and is forced to throw more than usual.

TE breakdown: Jacob Hollister continues to play a near every-down role. Only Metcalf (13 targets) has more pass-game opportunities than Hollister (12) since the team's Week 11 bye. Treat him as a low-end TE1 with proven multi-touchdown upside.

Rams Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Brandin Cooks

70

189

4.33

13%

23%

Tre Flowers

75

202

4.45

Slot

Cooper Kupp

74

204

4.62

24%

23%

Akeem King

75

212

4.46

Right

Robert Woods

72

201

4.51

23%

24%

Shaquill Griffin

72

194

4.38

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Jared Goff and company came alive in a big way last week, hanging 34 points on the Cardinals thanks to an efficient 424-yard performance from their franchise QB.

Perhaps the target distribution in the Rams' best offensive showing of the season will be replicated in future weeks:

Woods has ripped off 7-95-0, 6-97-0 and 13-172-0 performances in his last three games. He's a WR2 in this plus matchup.

Kupp found the end zone last week, but hasn't had the same double-digit target floor that we saw earlier in the season. Treat Kupp and Woods as equals based on the Rams' most-recent games.

Cooks remains just one big play away from reaching value, but he has fewer than five targets in five of his last six games. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR4.

The entire passing game is set up well against the Seahawks' group of CBs. Griffin is a stud, but offenses can plan around him since Seattle never has their CBs shadow individual WRs.

  • Griffin: PFF's No. 8 ranked CB among 143 qualified corners

  • Flowers: No. 121

  • King: No. 126

TE breakdown: Only the Cardinals have allowed more PPR per game to opposing TEs than the Seahawks. Treat Higbee as a true TE1 if Gerald Everett (knee) remains sidelined. Both should be considered upside TE2s if Everett returns to action.

Giants at Eagles

Giants Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Darius Slayton

73

190

4.39

17%

30%

Ronald Darby

71

193

4.38

Slot

Golden Tate

70

202

4.42

22%

24%

Avonte Maddox

69

184

4.39

Right

Sterling Shepard

70

194

4.48

22%

27%

Jalen Mills

72

191

4.61

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Tate (concussion) remains in the protocol. He'll be replaced in three-WR sets by Cody Latimer if again sidelined.

Shepard has worked as a rock-solid WR2 with Tate inactive this season:

  • Week 1: 6 receptions-42 yards-0 TD (7 targets), WR54

  • Week 3: 7-100-1 (9), WR6

  • Week 4: 7-76-0 (9), WR15

  • Week 13: 3-40-1 (7), WR32

Treat Shepard as a low-end WR2 if Tate is again sidelined. Both primary-slot WRs should be considered upside WR3s if Tate manages to return.

The presence of Eli Manning under center could actually be a positive for Slayton. Daniel Jones (ankle) hasn't made a habit of making good decisions with the ball, and his 10.3% deep ball rate is actually below Manning's 12.8% mark from last season. DeVante Parker demonstrated what outside WRs with enhanced contested-catch ability are capable of against these CBs, so treat Slayton as an upside WR4 in this plus spot.

The Eagles CBs had been playing great football with Darby and Mills together, but each came crashing back down to earth against the Dolphins last week. This still shouldn't be considered an absolutely smash spot, although fantasy football owners certainly don't need to even think about downgrading their WRs in this matchup.

TE breakdown: The status of Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion) remains unclear. Kaden Smith has a combined 14 targets over the past two games while posting snap rates north of 90%. Still, the QB change under center, combined with the Eagles' seventh-ranked defense in fewest yards per game allowed to opposing TEs, leads me to treat Smith as more of an upside TE2 as opposed to a low-end TE1.

Eagles Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

74

225

4.54

6%

11%

Deandre Baker

71

193

4.52

Slot

Nelson Agholor

72

198

4.42

17%

22%

Grant Haley

69

190

4.44

Right

Alshon Jeffery

75

216

4.53

26%

33%

Janoris Jenkins

70

193

4.46

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: JJAW drew the start in Week 13 and caught his first career TD, but his 38% snap rate was actually behind Greg Ward's 41% mark. Agholor hasn't reached 50 yards or found the end zone since he was chalk in Week 3. None of these WRs are realistic fantasy options in this two-TE heavy offense.

However, Jeffery is set up well in a matchup that he's won over the years:

  • 2017, Week 3: 4 receptions-56 yards-0 TD (8 targets)

  • 2017, Week 15: 4-49-1 (10)

  • 2018, Week 6: 8-74-2 (12)

  • 2018, Week 12: 3-39-0 (3)

Anyone that has suited up at CB for the Giants this season has been #bad.

  • Jenkins: PFF's No. 59 overall CB among 129 qualified players

  • Galey: No. 101

  • Baker: No. 127

  • Corey Ballentine: No. 128

Treat a healthy Jeffery as an upside WR2 in this prime spot. Only the Buccaneers have allowed more PPR per game to opposing WRs than the Giants.

TE breakdown: Ertz still posted a strong 75% snap rate and had six targets last week despite his nagging hamstring injury. The performance would've been bigger if the normally sure-handed TE had managed to come down with an end zone target that was briefly in his grasp. Continue to fire up Ertz as a sure-fire TE1. Goedert is also worthy of borderline TE1 consideration with at least five targets in six of his last seven games. Still, his 56% snap rate in Week 13 was his lowest mark since Week 2. The return of Jeffery, combined with the coaching staff's desire to get JJAW and Ward more involved, has made Goedert a more-risky option due to his newfound lack of a full-time role.

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