NFL Week 14 betting lessons: NFL's worst 6 teams have been awful against the spread lately

Here are the teams in the NFL that have four or fewer wins: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, New York Giants and Chicago Bears.

If you bet on any of them in Week 14, you know how bad those teams are.

None of them covered. None really came close. Other than the Lions in Week 13, when they were chasing their first win of the season, that group of six teams has been absolutely miserable against the spread in December. In Week 14, the Texans lost by 20, the Jaguars were shut out 20-0, the Lions were blasted by 28, the Jets and Giants lost by 21 and 16 respectively, and the Bears lost by 15 despite a ton of special teams mistakes by the Packers. Week 13 wasn't better. Those teams, not counting the Lions, lost by an average of 19.6 points. None of them lost by fewer than 11 points. None of them covered the spread.

There has been profit to be had in betting underdogs this season. But there comes a point in the season in which you have to be aware of which teams have mailed it in. Those six teams have combined to lose by double digits 11 times the past two weeks, with the Lions' win being the lone exception. And now that they've won one, their motivation is a big question. It's hard to get fired up to play when you have two or three wins, it's 20 degrees. It's even worse when you're doing all that and playing for Urban Meyer.

There will be times the last four weeks of the season in which someone in that group of shame has a good performance and covers a spread. But taking any of those losing teams the rest of the season probably won't be a great long-term investment.

Matt Nagy and the Chicago Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Matt Nagy and the Chicago Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Favorites, overs have a big week

Favorites and overs hit in a big way last week, causing a headache for the books. Favorites were 11-3 against the spread and the over was 10-3-1. That's the second time the overs have won, the first time since Week 5, according to John Ewing of BetMGM.

It hasn't been a chalky year at all, but the signs that the worst teams are going in the tank for the final stretch could mean that favorites rally late.

Packers are a covering machine

The Packers played horribly on special teams, gave up a few huge touchdowns and still won by 15, covering a 12.5-point spread against the Bears. Part of that is on the Bears, but the Packers have been a great bet all season.

Green Bay is 11-2 against the spread. The two losses came all the way back in Week 1, and then a close call against the Vikings in Week 11 when a last-second field goal beat them.

The Packers are 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM vs. the Baltimore Ravens this week. It was 6.5 until there was some positive news on Lamar Jackson's ankle Monday. That seems a bit steep, but the Packers keep covering no matter the number this season.