NFL Week 13 bets you need to make: 11/29

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THE PACKER SLAYER

Tell me if you’ve heard this one: the Giants’ receivers are questionable. This week, Golden Tate has been added to the list with a concussion as he joins TE Evan Engram with questionable tag. Sterling Shepard did dress last week but never did anything big with a long gain of six yards. The one player who has taken advantage of all the extra reps has been WR Darius Slayton.

Slayton has gone from 45 percent of the snaps early in the year to 90 percent over the Giants' last six games and is Daniel Jones’ main deep threat. Slayton has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks and has averaged nearly 15 yards per reception.

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Green Bay allows the seventh-most passing yards on the road and showed in San Francisco last week that they’re susceptible to the big play. We’re banging the Over on Slayton’s receiving yard total on any number below 73 yards as the markets are waiting to see what happens with Tate and Engram before they open.

 

FOURNETTE FEATURES

Since Nick Foles has “taken back over” the starting QB job two weeks ago, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette has amassed 19 targets for 16 grabs and 96 yards receiving. He also toted the rock 24 times for 97 yards against a tough Titans Defense last week. The Jags will have one of the best offensive matchups a team can have as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

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The Bucs are giving up 380 yards of total offense on the road this year (24th most) and with Foles looking short constantly (6.2 yards per pass attempt), Fournette could take advantage in the passing game. Tampa Bay actually has the league’s best DVOA rush defense, so we will shy away from any Fournette rushing props.

We are taking the Over 37.5 Fournette receiving yards as similar dual-threat running backs have had success against Tampa Bay in the air.

 

 

TD TV

The biggest game of the week will see the San Francisco 49ers travel to the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is putting up over 450 yards of offense a game over its last three while San Francisco is putting up 380 yards this year. Both sit No.1 and No.2 in touchdowns scored a game and average drive length.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been steamrolling the opposition in their last five games, winning by an average score of 40-12. In those five games, the offense is averaging over four TDs a game while the defense has scored five TDs of its own. San Francisco has been impressive as well as it have scored at least four TDs in four of its last five games.

These two defenses can shut it down as they rank Top-4 in Wtd DVOA defense at FootballOutsiders. But these defenses compliment their electric offenses as each unit can force the three-and-out early in drives and get great field position as a result. The 49ers have the second-best starting field position while the Ravens have the ninth-best.

We are playing the Over 5.5 total TDs for plus money (+120)  

 

CHRISTIAN CARRIES CAROLINA

The Washington Redskins are giving up the second-most rushing attempts per game this year at 32.3. Over their last three games, that number has ballooned to 35 and on the road that number is a league-worst 33.2. Sometimes it is safer to bet on volume than results.

No running back in the league is having a better season than Carolina's Christian McCaffrey. He’s second in rushing attempts, first in rushing yards, has the third-longest run by a running back, and has the most rushing TDs. He also has more receiving yards than JuJu Smith-Schuster and – the cherry on top of it all - is a 99 rating in Madden.

There’s no reason that the Panthers don’t give CMC enough carries to eclipse his total of 20.5 rushes especially with Carolina expected to play with the lead.  

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