NFL Week 12 bets you need to make: 11/22

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HACKY SACK

The New York Giants and the Chicago Bears have been allowing 8.4 sacks combined over the last three weeks. However, both these teams have struggled to take down opposing QBs this year as they sit in the bottom half in the league in sacks per game at nearly five takedowns combined. This last stat may give us some value in a total-sacks prop that won’t be set too high thanks to the Bears’ and Giants’ sacks per game rate.

Daniel Jones has been sacked 22 times in his last four games because the Giants have been pass-happy of late, averaging 39 passes a game since Week seven. Mitch Trubisky will have a short leash that could work in our favor. The Bears QB has been sacked nine times in his last two home games and if Mitch gives way to Chase Daniel, that could be money in the bank. The Bears’ backup was sacked twice in four dropbacks last week while getting taken down four more times in 30 pass attempts in his only other start this year.

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We are 6-1 on our weekly sack plays and will be taking the Over 5.5 sacks in the Giants-Bears matchup Sunday.

 

SKIPPING LEG DAY

Bears’ kicker Eddy Pineiro has zero trust from his coaching staff as Matt Nagy decided to go for it on 4th and nine from their opponents 31-yard line in a 0-0 game. Over their last three games, Nagy’s Bears have attempted just 0.7 FGs.

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The Giants are dead last in field goal attempts this season and are kicking a whopping one three-point attempt per game. New York’s kicker Aldrick Rosas is 8-for-10 this year with a long of just thirty-six yards.

Chicago will be breezy Sunday with winds expected in the double digits, further helping our lean on this kicking prop. Take the Under 44.5 yards longest field goal scored.

 

DRISKEL DRUMMING UP RUSHES

Jeff Driskel will start again for the Lions Sunday against Washington as Matthew Stafford may have to sit out the rest of the season with Detroit out of playoff contention. The word on Driskel’s rushing ability is not widely known yet but the Lions’ starter rushed for 51 yards on eight carries and had a rushing TD for good measure last week.

Driskel is not afraid to take off and run as the 26-year-old QB has averaged 4.5 carries over his seven career starts. The Washington is allowing a completion rate of 71 percent which may stop Driskel from taking off as much but we still like his rushing prospects for Sunday and will take the Over on any number below 23 yards.

 

 

TAKE THESE BROKEN WENTZ

The Philadelphia Eagles receiving core is a mess. Last week they gave 88 percent of the snaps to Jordan Mathews who had just signed two weeks ago and now Nelson Agholor appears questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.

They could have Alshon Jeffrey back this week, but this is a run-first offense and with Jordan Howard likely back this week after missing Week 11, we don’t see Carson Wentz and the offense airing things out against Seattle. The Eagles are 24th in the league in passing yards per game at 215 and 28th over their last three games at 185 yards.

We are jumping on the Under 241.5 passing yards for Carson Wentz, a number he has not eclipsed in four-straight games.

 

HOME FAVS LEADING THE WAY

Over the last 30 days, home favorites have been winning SU at 73 percent clip and last week they hit at 78 percent. This week, home teams are favored in nine of the 13 games. Our two favorite home favorite MLs this week are the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots. Parlayed together, this two-teamer pays out an even +100.

New England has won 16-straight games at home and is allowing just 11 points per game at Gillette stadium this year. The offense hasn’t looked great, but this is a defense-first team that could give the Cowboys some problems as they have only beat the Redskins, the Giants and the Lions on the road this year while losing to the Jets and Saints.

Atlanta has run off two consecutive wins versus divisional opponents and picked off Kyle Allen four times last week. They also haven’t allowed a touchdown in 10 quarters of football. They could really force Bruce Arians to sit Jameis Winston if the Dirty Birds get to the Bucs’ QB early.

Take the Pats ML and Falcons ML for a +100 payout.

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