NFL Week 12 bets you need to make: 11/21

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JAGS TO FEATURE FOURNETTE

Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone believes that RB Leonard Fournette didn’t touch the ball enough last week in their loss to the Colts. The lead back, who had averaged 26 touches a game over his previous six contests, handled the ball just 15 times in Week 11 but game flow was a big reason for that.

The Jaguars should have a better time keeping the game close and allow Fournette to be an option in both the running and passing game as they visit the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has three wins in their last six games but has only won by three or four points in each of those games, meaning they aren’t blowing anyone out and forcing teams to abandon the run.

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There is no reason that the Jacksonville RB can't rush the ball 17-20 times while chipping in half a dozen catches. With the Titans allowing four yards per carry and six yards per pass attempt to opposing RBs and Fournette averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per target, we can take the difference of those totals and see a 20-rush and seven-target day for Fournette working out to 127 total yards. 

Take the Over on Fournette’s total yards of 113.5 yards. 

 

FINGERS CROSSED FOR HILTON ON TNF

T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision for Thursday Night Football as the Colts lock horns with the Texans. The Colts receiver was sidelined in Tuesday’s practice but was a full participant on Wednesday ahead of their big divisional showdown with the Houston Texans. Having Hilton in the lineup would be a godsend for Jacoby Brissett and the offense as the Texans secondary is in shambles with six players out or questionable. Houston will also be giving meaningful snaps to the recently released-then-signed CB Vernon Hargreaves

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In his 16 games against the Texans over his career, Hilton has 87 catches for 1,604 yards and 10 TDs — that includes seven 100-yard games. No.1 WRs are putting up close to 80 yards per game against the Texans over the year. 

If the wideout is declared active and his market opens closer to kick off, consider taking the Over on Hilton’s receiving total on any number below 81 yards.

 

DOLPHINS BACK TO THEIR OLD SELVES

The Miami Dolphins streak of five-straight wins against the spread is over after they got filled by the Buffalo Bills 37-20 last week. Buffalo had scored more than 21 points just twice in their last six games before the 37-point explosion. Our takeaway from that game: Miami is still a very bad football team.

On the offensive side of things, their current No.1 running back, Kalen Ballage, is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That number is historically bad as it would be the worst mark in league history. The Dolphins offensive coordinator even put the blame on Ballage’s teammates and coaches, telling reporters that they needed to do better.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami just sent their two starting safeties to the I.R. This will only make the league's worst passing defense even worse heading into their Sunday contest against the Cleveland Browns.

Buffalo beat the Dolphins in every quarter last week, becoming the fourth team this year to do so. Over their eight losses this year, Miami has lost 26 of 32 quarters while winning just four. 

With a price of +650, sign us up for the Browns winning every quarter Sunday.

 

TEXANS BURNED BY PASS-CATCHING RBS

Want another Thursday night play? How about a running back who is 15th in the league in receptions among RBs facing the league’s worst defense at defending passes against running backs?

Indianapolis’ Nyheim Hines’ role is consistent. The third-down back sees on average of four targets a game and may have an expanded role this week with the absence of Marlon Mack. Hines has turned 11 targets into seven catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks but will have a chance to better those numbers against the Texans who give up 64 yards passing to opposing RBs this year and let non-pass catching Mark Ingram set a season-high in receiving yards last week with 37. 

We think the total might be set a little high but feel that the Over is still the play, especially with a plus matchup and RB snaps up for grabs.

 

EASY PICKINGS

The New Orleans Saints forced four interceptions last week against the human turnover machine better known as Jameis Winston. This week the Saints get to face the Panthers and rookie QB Kyle Allen who threw four INTs himself last week and has thrown nine picks in his last four games.

Allen has been facing serious pressure making the young QB force some throws. His nine INTs were the product of 18 sacks as the Carolina offensive line has been getting dominated in November. Things will only get worse Sunday as the Saints’ defense has the fourth-most sacks at home.

It is a juicy play but we feel confident in Allen throwing at least one interception. Take the Over on Allen’s 0.5 INTs.

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