NFL Week 11 bets you need to make: 11/15

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JONESING FOR THE BALL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones has been getting some praise from his head coach, Bruce Arians — especially about the back’s route running. Jones blew up for eight catches on eight targets last week for 77 yards. Arians’ support in the passing game will help Jones receive more snaps over third-down back Dare Ogunbowale as RJ2 saw nearly twice as many snaps as both Peyton Barber and Ogunbowale last week. Since Tampa Bay’s bye in Week 7, Jones is averaging 73 total yards, a trend he will look to continue against the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards to running backs at 35.2 yards per game but gave up 143 yards rushing last week and have given up 18 catches to RBs over the last three weeks.

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We are taking the Over on Jones’ 63.5 total yards and looking to cash on back-to-back weeks with the Bucs’ lead back.

 

YES  TO GOFF, NO TO TRUBISKY

Yesterday, we wrote about the possibility of a defensive TD when the Chicago Bears travel to the Los Angeles Rams for Sunday Night Football. Today, we are going to pick on both QBs again.

Last year, Mitch Trubisky and Jared Goff faced off in what was a Bears’ 15-6 win. In that snooze fest, Trubisky went 16 of 30 for 110 yards, one score and three interceptions while Goff didn't fare any better, completing 20 of 44 passes for 180 yards and four interceptions. Their combined QB rating was just 52.4.

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Goff’s completion total sits at 23.5 his total yards at 269.5 this week. The Rams QB has not completed more than 22 passes since Week 5 and has eclipsed 269 yards passing just once over the last month. Goff will also be without WR Brandin Cooks, possibly both his TEs and two-fifths of his starting offensive line. We endorse the Under on both 23.5 completions and 269.5 yards.

Trubisky’s completion total sits at 21.5 and his total yards at 230.5 for Sunday's match. Three of the last four quarterbacks to face the Rams have hit the Over on both these totals: Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garropolo and Mason Rudolph. Trubisky is a terrible QB, but the fact that Rudolph completed 22 passes for 242 yards makes us feel like the Bears QB could push these numbers. We are going to pass on Trusbisky’s totals.

 

 

CALLAHAN’S SIDESHOW

With running back Derrius Guice expected to carve out a role in the league’s worst-scoring offense this week againstt the New York Jets, it could really cut into Adrian Peterson’s touches. The ageless RB had been running great before the team’s bye last week, rushing for 118, 81, 76 and 108 yards since Week 6 and averaging nearly 18 touches.

With the Washington offense running just 43.7 plays a game over their last three games, there are only so many touches to go around. Bill Callahan is running a sideshow of an offense as the team has scored 17, 0, 9 and 9 points since he has taken over and now the coach is going to take touches away from his RB who is top-10 in rushing yards over the last four weeks. Hit Washington's team total Under 19.5 points.

 

VIKINGS’ PASS RUSH TO PUT DOWN BRONCOS

No team in the league is surrendering more sacks of late than the Denver Broncos. Over their past three games, the Ponies have given up 15 sacks. New quarterback Brandon Allen got taken down three times in just 20 drop backs in Week 9.

Their defense has returned the favor though, sacking Baker Mayfield twice and Jacoby Brissett four times in their last two games. They will take on a Minnesota Vikings offensive line that has kept Kirk Cousins relatively clean at 1.7 sacks per game.

If the Broncos can get to Cousins once or twice it will help our cause as we think that the Vikings pass rush will have no problem getting to Allen. The Vikes are averaging four sacks a game when facing sub-500 teams and have sacked rookies this year at a rate of once per seven drop backs. Take the Over 5.5 sacks.

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