NFL Week 10 WR/CB Matchups and TE Analysis

Ian Hartitz
Rotoworld

We're on to Week 10! I'll be breaking down the WR/CB matchups all season long with a focus on figuring out who could be facing shadow coverage as well as the best and worst overall situations. We'll also briefly touch on each team's TE group.

Physical data is courtesy of NFL.com and PlayerProfiler.com, alignment information is from Pro Football Focus while each WR's target share and air yard market share is provided by the fine folks at AirYards.com.

Chargers at Raiders

Chargers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Mike Williams

76

218

4.59

18%

30%

Daryl Worley

73

204

4.64

Slot

Keenan Allen

74

206

4.71

25%

35%

Lamarcus Joyner

68

184

4.55

Right

Andre Patton

74

200

4.59

5%

11%

Trayvon Mullen

73

199

4.46

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The entire Chargers' passing game is set up well Thursday night against the Raiders' 29th-ranked defense in pass DVOA (Football Outsiders). Only the Buccaneers have allowed more PPR per game to the WR position through nine weeks.

Philip Rivers' target distribution in his first game with QB coach Shane Steichen calling plays was as follows:

You'd like to think Rivers will get his WRs more involved in the future, but at the very least Week 9 served as a reminder that this is a crowded Chargers Offense when all of their weapons are healthy.

Allen has gone off for 6 receptions-57 yards-1 touchdown, 8-90-0, 9-133-1, 5-45-0 and 9-89-0 lines in his last five games against the Raiders. He boasts a six-inch height advantage against Lamarcus Joyner, who has allowed the third-most yards in slot coverage among all CBs this season.

Meanwhile, Williams has a league-high 54 targets without finding the end zone. This is as good of a get right spot as any against one of seven defenses that has allowed at least 12 touchdowns to the WR position this season.

Geremy Davis (hamstring, doubtful) isn't expected to suit up Thursday night, which could lead to another near full-time role for Andre Patton. Alas, Patton has played 131 snaps since Week 5 without receiving a single target.

TE breakdown: Only Evan Engram (8.5 targets per game), Zach Ertz (8.3), Travis Kelce (8.2) and Austin Hooper (7.8) have been targeted more frequently than Henry (7.6), who has gone off for 8-100-2, 8-97-0, 4-47-0 and 7-84-0 performances in four games since returning in Week 6. The overall PPR TE1 over the past four weeks, Henry is a strong FLEX option in addition to a locked-in TE1 against the league's third-worst defense in PPR per game allowed to the TE position.

Raiders Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Tyrell Williams

75

204

4.48

18%

38%

Michael Davis

69

217

4.45

Slot

Hunter Renfrow

70

184

4.59

15%

13%

Desmond King

70

201

4.65

Right

Zay Jones

74

201

4.45

12%

18%

Casey Hayward

71

192

4.57

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Raiders benched Trevor Davis in favor of Zay Jones, who posted a 92% snap rate and caught 3-of-4 targets for 21 yards in Darius Slay's shadow coverage last week. The targets trailed only Hunter Renfrow (7), as Tyrell Williams (4) continues to not be fed like a normal No. 1 WR.

This isn't meant to insinuate the Raiders' offense isn't working: coach Jon Gruden and company's average of 6.2 yards per play trails only the Chiefs (6.6) and Cowboys (6.7). Rather, it's simply the reality of life within an offense that only has three players with over 20 targets in Williams (34), Renfrow (37) and primary pass-game option Darren Waller (60).

Don't expect this even target distribution to change as long as Derek Carr continues to play at a career-best level:

  • Carr in his fraudulent 2016 MVP campaign: 64% completion rate, 5.0% TD rate, 7.0 YPA, 7.5 AY/A, 96.7 QB Rating

  • In 2019: 71% completion rate, 5.2% TD rate, 7.9 YPA, 8.3 AY/A, 105.1 QB Rating

Williams' touchdown streak finally came to an end after five games. Perhaps the Raiders can scheme him into success against Michael Davis (PFF's No. 97 ranked CB) in lieu of Casey Hayward (No. 4) or Desmond King (No. 40). Still, the Chargers have allowed the eighth-fewest PPR per game to the WR position this season, and Williams has just 10 combined targets since returning in Week 8. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR3 in this spot.

Renfrow (11) has held a slight lead in targets over Williams over the past two weeks and posted strong 4-88-1 and 6-54-1 lines against the Texans and Lions, respectively. His lack of a full-time snap rate (54% in Week 9) wasn't ideal, but the rookie is certainly making the most of his opportunities in recent weeks. 

TE breakdown: Waller has underwhelmed in consecutive weeks with 2-11-1 and 2-52-0 lines on a combined 10 targets. He's had eight or fewer targets in all but one game this season, although the primary pass catcher in the Raiders' aforementioned super efficient offense is still certainly worthy of high-end fantasy consideration. Just treat Waller as more of a top-five TE as opposed to a top-three option against the league's No. 6 ranked defense in DVOA vs. the TE position.

Ravens at Bengals

Ravens Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Seth Roberts

74

196

4.46

8%

9%

William Jackson

72

189

4.37

Slot

Willie Snead

71

195

4.62

10%

11%

Tony McRae

69

180

4.61

Right

Marquise Brown

69

166

 

23%

32%

B.W. Webb

70

184

4.51

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Ravens haven't made a habit of throwing the ball this season, as only the 49ers have been a more run-heavy offense.

Of course, who can blame them when their QB is one of the league's premiere talents in the open field?

Lamar Jackson has fed Marquise Brown (43 targets) and Mark Andrews (42) way more than the likes of Nick Boyle (19), Willie Snead (18) and Hayden Hurst (17) in six games with the Ravens' first-round rookie, who is the only fantasy-viable WR in this offense. Hollywood caught 3-of-4 targets for 48 scoreless yards against the Patriots, but looked plenty healthy while showing off his truly elite burners. Only the Raiders (43 completions allowed of at least 20 yards), Cardinals (39), Lions (38) and Giants (38) have allowed more big plays through the air than the Bengals (36) through nine weeks.

The return of starting CBs Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) and Darqueze Dennard (hamstring) would certainly help the Bengals' chances in this tough spot. Be sure to monitor our Week 10 Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation along with estimated and official game statuses for every injury player.

TE breakdown: Mark Andrews posted season-low marks in snap rate (34%) and targets (3) last Sunday night. His three targets marked the first time all season that Jackson didn't target his favorite TE at least seven times. Nick Boyle (84%, 5) and Hayden Hurst (41%, 2) were more involved in Week 9, but don't overthink this: Continue to fire up Andrews as a locked-in TE1 despite facing the league's fourth-best defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to the position.

Bengals Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Auden Tate

77

228

4.68

19%

30%

Jimmy Smith

74

211

4.46

Slot

Tyler Boyd

73

197

4.58

25%

26%

Marlon Humphrey

72

197

4.41

Right

A.J. Green

76

211

4.5

N/A

N/A

Marcus Peters

72

197

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Ravens showed off their fully-healthy group of CBs in their prime-time win over the Patriots. They haven't moved their CBs since adding Marcus Peters, so A.J. Green (ankle) could feasibly target the burnable new member of the Baltimore secondary if active.

Still, it remains to be seen if Green will make his long-awaited debut following the Bengals' Week 9 bye. It would make sense considering Green managed to return to practice in Week 8 and said he wants to be with the team long term. NFL Network's Omar Ruiz confirmed that the Bengals' long-time No. 1 WR is expected to return. Unfortunately, Green wasn't able to practice to start the week and is considered day to day.

Green caught 5-of-9 targets for 69 yards and scored not one, not two but THREE touchdowns in his only game against the Ravens in 2018. However, the potential for limited snaps makes him, along with slot maven Tyler Boyd, upside WR4s in this tough matchup.

Of course, the entire Bengals Offense carries a low ceiling and floor after benching Andy Dalton in favor of fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley. The former NC State QB improved in each of his three seasons as a starter, although Finley (6.3% deep-ball rate) joined an underwhelming group of QBs featuring Mike Glennon (6.6%), Ryan Griffin (6.5%) and Nathan Peterman (6%) as the only signal callers to throw the ball more than 20-plus yards downfield on fewer than seven percent of their passes during the preseason (PFF). Only the Dolphins (16.8 points) are implied to score fewer points than the Bengals (17.8) this week (FantasyLabs).

TE breakdown: Eifert came alive in Week 8 with a season-high 71% snap rate and caught 6-of-9 targets for 74 scoreless yards. It's unclear if the robust role was an effort to showcase the 29-year-old TE just two days before the trade deadline. I'm wary of chasing those points against the league's sixth-stiffest defense in PPR per game allowed to the TE position, but hey, bye weeks suck sometimes.

Bills at Browns

Bills Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

John Brown

70

179

4.34

23%

37%

Greedy Williams

74

185

4.37

Slot

Cole Beasley

68

177

4.54

21%

17%

T.J. Carrie

72

206

4.48

Right

Isaiah McKenzie

67

173

4.41

8%

2%

Denzel Ward

71

183

4.32

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Smokey Brown joins Michael Thomas as the league's only two players with at least 50 receiving yards in every game this season. The Bills' No. 1 WR won't boast his usual speed advantage against the Browns' quick-footed CBs, but a matchup against the league's 25th-ranked defense in fewest receptions allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs is hardly a spot to shy away from. Continue to treat the PPR WR18 as an every-week WR2.

Cole Beasley has found the end zone in three consecutive games, but the slot WR posted season-low marks in both snap rate (45%) as well as targets (2) in Week 9. Isaiah McKenzie (68% snap rate in Week 9) took over for Duke Williams (0%) in 3-WR sets last week, although both Andre Roberts (29%) and Robert Foster (11%) were somewhat involved as well.

It'll be tough for Josh Allen to enable multiple fantasy WRs on a weekly basis. Still, each of Greedy Williams (PFF's No. 45 ranked CB), Denzel Ward (No. 76) and T.J. Carrie (No. 93) have been average to mediocre this season. Consider having some cheap exposure to Cole Beasley ($4,100) on DraftKings in addition to plenty of Smokey in this potential smash spot.

TE breakdown: Dawson Knox has just three targets over the past two weeks, but his 76% snap rate in Week 9 was a step in the right direction after the rookie TE posted pedestrian 53% and 45% rates in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Tyler Kroft accordingly posted a season-low 26% snap rate last week, making Knox a near every-down TE once again. Treat him as an upside TE2 against a Browns Defense that has allowed big days to Delanie Walker (5-55-2), Mark Andrews (4-31-1), George Kittle (6-70-1) and Noah Fant (3-115-1) this season.

Browns Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Odell Beckham

71

198

4.43

24%

34%

Tre'Davious White

71

192

4.47

Slot

Jarvis Landry

71

205

4.65

24%

27%

Taron Johnson

71

192

4.5

Right

Antonio Callaway

71

200

4.41

11%

13%

Levi Wallace

72

179

4.63

Projected shadow matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Tre'Davious White

WR/CB breakdown: The Bills didn't ask White to shadow in Weeks 1-8 despite facing the likes of Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Alshon Jeffery.

This changed in Week 9 against stud Redskins rookie WR Terry McLaurin. Expect the Bills' No. 1 CB to again travel with his opponent's top pass-game option this week. White ranks among the league's top-10 CBs in Burn Rate, QB rating allowed as well as fantasy points allowed per cover snap and target (Player Profiler).

OBJ remains plenty capable of winning any matchup, but workload has been an issue all season.

Overall, Beckham already has more games without at least eight targets (4) in 2019 than he did in any single season with the Giants from 2014-2018. With that said: I'll have plenty of exposure to OBJ in DraftKings tournaments, where he hasn't been this cheap ($6,100) since 2014.

Jarvis Landry and OBJ each have 67 targets this season. Landry's total might be a bit inflated after getting 23 pass-game opportunities over the past two weeks, but he's at least seeing the type of volume to warrant WR3 consideration. Still, this is hardly a spot to target against the league's No. 4 and No. 5 ranked defense in DVOA against No. 1 and No. 2 WRs, respectively.

Antonio Callaway doesn't have more than five targets in a game this season and isn't on the fantasy radar against a Bills Defense that has allowed the third-fewest PPR per game to the WR position through nine weeks.

TE breakdown: Ricky Seals-Jones (knee) left last week's game early, enabling Demetrius Harris to see a season-high four targets on a strong 68% snap rate. Still, Stephen Carlson was involved as well, and Harris likely won't work as anything more than the No. 4 option in this pass game more weeks than not. Treat him as a low-end TE2 in this tough spot.

Lions at Bears

Lions Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Kenny Golladay

76

218

4.5

21%

32%

Prince Amukamara

72

206

4.48

Slot

Danny Amendola

70

186

4.68

17%

15%

Buster Skrine

70

186

4.48

Right

Marvin Jones

74

200

4.46

20%

25%

Kyle Fuller

72

190

4.49

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Bears obviously haven't been quite the same world beaters on defense in 2019 compared to what we saw last season.

A more in-depth look reveals that not all that much has changed in terms of their per-play efficiency:

  • Yards per play: 2019 (4.9); 2018 (4.8)

  • Net yards per pass attempt: 2019 (5.8); 2018 (5.3)

  • Yards allowed per rush attempt: 2019 (3.7); 2018 (3.8)

  • Yards per game allowed to No. 1 WRs: 2019 (56.4); 2018 (53.6)

  • Yards per game allowed to No. 2 WRs: 2019 (56.9); 2018 (59.2)

  • Fantasy PPR per game allowed to WRs: 2019 (28.2); 2018 (38.8)

The Bears have faced slightly more plays per game on defense in 2019 (65.5) compared to 2018 (62.8), but the true difference has been turnovers. Overall, Chicago is tied for 16th this season with 11 takeaways after finishing 2018 as the clear-cut No. 1 defense in this metric with 36 combined interceptions and fumble recoveries.

Make no mistake about it: This is still a tough matchup for the entire Lions passing game. Still, Kenny Golladay (WR9 in PPR per game) and Marvin Jones (WR13) have each earned auto-start treatment in fantasy formats of all shapes and sizes thanks to Matthew Stafford's resurgence under new OC Darrell Bevell.

This probably isn't the spot to target Danny Amendola, although he boasts an underrated floor with 11, 8 and 5 targets in three games since Kerryon Johnson (knee, IR) was injured.

TE breakdown: T.J. Hockenson posted a 3-56-0 line on seven targets in Week 9, marking the first time since Week 1 that he managed to clear even 40 yards. The Lions' stud rookie TE is still unfortunately the clear-cut No. 4 pass-game option in this offense. Hockenson (65% snaps in Week 9) will continue to boast a low weekly floor as long as high-priced free agent addition Jesse James (28%) along with career journeyman Logan Thomas (27%) continue to steal plenty of reps.

Bears Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Allen Robinson

74

220

4.56

26%

39%

Darius Slay

72

192

4.36

Slot

Anthony Miller

71

201

4.55

10%

17%

Justin Coleman

71

185

4.53

Right

Taylor Gabriel

68

167

4.45

12%

19%

Rashaan Melvin

74

192

4.47

Projected shadow matchups: Allen Robinson vs. Darius Slay, Anthony Miller vs. Justin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel vs. Rashaan Melvin

WR/CB breakdown: Coach Matt Patricia has taken a page out of Bill Belichick's book and turned his secondary into one of the league's tougher units to figure out when it comes to projecting shadow assignments. Coleman has consistently tracked the opponent's slot WR, but it wouldn't be shocking if Melvin winds up on Robinson after drawing the assignment against Tyrell Williams in Week 9. Slay held A-Rob to a 2-37-0 line on four targets in their shadow date last season.

A-Rob is the only member of this passing game that can be fired up with any sort of confidence. Even so, his 1-6-0 performance in a potential smash spot against the Eagles last week demonstrated the low floor for anyone involved in this offense.

Mitchell Trubisky has unequivocally been one of the league's very worst QBs this season:

  • Completion rate: 63% (No. 22 among 34 QBs with at least 100 pass attempts)

  • TD rate: 2.3% (No. 33)

  • QB rating: 80 (No. 30)

  • Yards per attempt: 5.6 (No. 33)

  • Adjusted yards per attempt: 5.5 (No. 32)

While Gabriel continues to gets a deep target or two per game, Miller played just 40% of the offense's snaps in Week 9 with TEs Adam Shaheen (42%) and Trey Burton (60%) getting more involved. Overall, Burton and Miller each played 12 snaps from the slot.

To reiterate: Avoid all pass catchers in this offense other than Robinson.

TE breakdown: Burton and Shaheen were each plenty involved in Week 9 as far as snaps are concerned, but neither managed to record a catch. Avoid this timeshare, even in a great matchup against the league's No. 30 ranked defense in DVOA against the TE position.

Giants at Jets

Giants Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Darius Slayton

73

190

4.39

12%

27%

Darryl Roberts

71

187

4.43

Slot

Golden Tate

70

202

4.42

23%

22%

Brian Poole

70

209

4.55

Right

Bennie Fowler

73

217

4.52

12%

18%

Nate Hairston

72

196

4.52

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Sterling Shepard (concussion) practiced in full last week before being placed back in the protocol over the weekend. It seems very unlikely that he'll suit up anytime soon.

Daniel Jones' target distribution during Shepard's four-game absence has been as follows:

Note that Engram and Barkley each only played three games over the past four weeks.

Tate's 42 targets since returning from suspension in Week 5 are the seventh most in the league. Overall, he's been the PPR WR16 in Weeks 5-9 while demonstrating some truly amazing contested-catch skills to go along with his always-lethal ability after the catch.

Fire up Tate as an upside WR2 in PPR formats against the Jets' 25th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.

Darius Slayton has more than five targets in just one game this season. Still, the nature of his pass-game opportunities keep him on the fantasy radar as an upside WR5. Only Will Fuller (19 air yards per target) and Tyrell Williams (18.6) have been targeted further downfield on average than Slayton (16.6) through nine weeks.

Neither Fowler (58% snaps in Week 9) nor Latimer (15%) are on the fantasy radar as the No. 5 and No. 6 pass-game options inside of the league's 23rd-ranked scoring offense.

TE breakdown: Engram (foot) didn't practice Wednesday and is considered week to week. He's cooled off since going for over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown in two of the Giants' first three games of the season. The injury, combined with potential for a No. 3 pass-game role with each of Barkley and Tate getting fed targets, makes Engram more of a low-end TE1 moving forward as opposed to a locked-in top-three option if healthy. Rhett Ellison will draw the start if Engram is ultimately sidelined, but the Giants' 31-year-old backup TE possesses a mediocre combination of athleticism and proven receiving ability. Don't treat Ellison as anything more than a desperate dart throw as far as fantasy is concerned.

Jets Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Robby Anderson

75

190

4.41

19%

36%

Deandre Baker

71

193

4.52

Slot

Jamison Crowder

68

185

4.56

23%

26%

Grant Haley

69

190

4.44

Right

Demaryius Thomas

75

224

4.41

17%

24%

Janoris Jenkins

70

193

4.46

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Robby Anderson continues to play over 90% of the offense's snaps, but has just three, eight, eight, six and four targets in five games since the Jets' Week 4 bye. He certainly boasts a fantasy-friendly target share; his average target depth of 15.5 yards is the eighth-highest mark among 72 full-time WRs this season. Still, Anderson has largely been a non-factor for the entire year outside of his electric 92-yard touchdown against the Cowboys. 

Crowder caught 8-of-9 targets for 83 yards and a score against the Dolphins' porous defense last week. He's again set up brilliantly in the slot against the Giants, who have employed arguably the league's worst nickelback in Grant Haley:

  • 1.93 yards allowed per cover snap in the slot (No. 47 among 51 qualified CBs, per PFF)

  • 116.8 QB rating allowed in the slot (No. 40)

  • 353 yards allowed in the slot (No. 50)

  • 31 receptions allowed in the slot (No. 49)

Demaryius Thomas has finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards in four-of-six games this season and hasn't found the end zone.

Anderson and Crowder have proven capable of providing fantasy value in spurts inside of this pitiful offense. Still, Sam Darnold's general inability to throw the football in recent weeks gives the entire passing game a painfully low floor, even in this great matchup.

TE breakdownChris Herndon (hamstring) dressed in Week 9, but was available for emergency purposes only. Ryan Griffin continued to play well with a near every-down role. Overall, Griffin has posted 1-1-0, 4-66-2 and 6-50-0 lines in three games since Herndon's suspension ended. The likelihood that Herndon will be operating at less than 100% if active, combined with Griffin's stellar play, could lead to a committee of sorts once the Jets' talented second-year TE gets back on the field. This would render both Herndon and Griffin as low-end TE2s with part-time roles in the league's 31st-ranked scoring offense.

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Chiefs at Titans

Chiefs Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Demarcus Robinson

73

203

4.59

12%

19%

Malcolm Butler

70

187

4.4

Slot

Sammy Watkins

73

211

4.43

25%

23%

Logan Ryan

71

191

4.56

Right

Tyreek Hill

70

185

4.34

20%

46%

Adoree' Jackson

70

186

4.42

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Patrick Mahomes (ankle) is trending towards returning this week. The presence of the 2018 MVP would obviously result in a significant boost for everyone involved in the Chiefs Offense.

This is particularly true for Demarcus Robinson, who has been relegated to a part-time role with Matt Moore under center. The offense's snap distribution among WRs and TEs last week was as follows:

Overall, Hill (22 targets), Kelce (21) and Watkins (18) are the only Chiefs with double-digit targets since Moore took over halfway through the team's Week 7 victory over the Broncos.

The Titans have mostly been solid against the pass this season thanks in large part to a strong bounce-back year from Adoree' Jackson, but the extended absence of Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) could be problematic for a defense that hasn't moved their CBs around to this point. Career backup CB LeShaun Sims has allowed 5-of-8 targets into his coverage to be caught for 76 yards and a score this season and finished 2018 as PFF's 110th-ranked CB among 135 qualified corners.

Fire up Hill, Kelce and even Watkins with confidence this week, regardless of who is under center.

TE breakdown: Kelce is the PPR TE2 after nine weeks, but still somehow feels like a disappointment. This is because the Chiefs' stud TE ranks 17th in PPR among all WRs and TEs after finishing 2018 at No. 9. Regardless, continue to treat Kelce as a weekly top-three TE thanks to both his natural talent as well as his monstrous workload (74 targets) that has only been topped by Zach Ertz (75) at the position. 

Titans Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

A.J. Brown

72

226

4.49

15%

21%

Charvarius Ward

73

198

4.49

Slot

Adam Humphries

71

195

4.58

15%

13%

Tyrann Mathieu

69

186

4.5

Right

Corey Davis

75

209

4.53

16%

25%

Bashaud Breeland

71

197

4.62

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Ryan Tannehill's target distribution this season has been as follows:

It's tough to expect consistent fantasy production from anyone involved in what has essentially been a four-way draw for lead receiver duties inside of the league's 12th-most run-heavy offense.

Both Davis and Brown have demonstrated tantalizing ability at different points throughout the season, but this isn't the spot to expect boom weeks. The Chiefs Defense has been significantly better against the pass (No. 4 in DVOA) than the run (No. 28) through nine weeks and are one of just seven defenses to allow fewer than 30 PPR per game to the WR position.

TE breakdown: Jonnu Smith remains a perfectly fine low-end TE1 option as long as Delanie Walker (ankle) remains sidelined. The Titans' backup TE has posted 3-64-0, 6-78-1 and 3-18-0 lines over the past three weeks with a near every-down role. Still, the return of Walker would likely result in each player receiving limited snaps, rendering both TEs as non-viable fantasy options against the league's fifth-best defense in DVOA against the position.

Cardinals at Buccaneers

Cardinals Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

KeeSean Johnson

73

201

4.6

13%

15%

Jamel Dean

73

206

4.3

Slot

Larry Fitzgerald

75

225

4.48

20%

23%

Vernon Hargreaves

70

204

4.5

Right

Christian Kirk

71

201

4.47

23%

27%

Sean Bunting

70

195

4.42

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Cardinals are officially done with utilizing 4-WR formations as their base offense. Their snap distribution in Week 9 at WR and TE was as follows:

Kirk is no longer a primary slot WR, but the talented second-year player demonstrated the ability to win from the outside on more than a few occasions in 2018.

Only Mike Williams (54 targets) has more pass-game opportunities than Kirk (53) without a touchdown this season. A matchup against the league's single-worst defense in PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs is as good a time as any for Kirk to find the end zone.

Larry Fitzgerald had fewer than five targets for the third-consecutive game in Week 9 and hasn't surpassed 70 receiving yards in a contest since Week 2. The 36-year-old WR should be treated as an upside WR4 thanks to the pristine matchup, but there's no longer a solid floor here.

The rest of the Cardinals WRs are off the fantasy radar due to snap and target concerns. Hopefully Andy Isabella can find his way into 3-WR sets sooner rather than later after demonstrating his upside with an electric 88-yard touchdown last week.

TE breakdown: Williams might've had a full-time role in Week 9, although the Cardinals' starting TE still has fewer than three targets in all but one game this season. The same is true for Clay. Both TEs remain off the fantasy radar due to workload concerns despite the great matchup.

Buccaneers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Mike Evans

77

231

4.53

27%

39%

Patrick Peterson

72

219

4.34

Slot

Chris Godwin

73

209

4.42

23%

24%

Tramaine Brock

70

195

4.54

Right

Breshad Perriman

74

212

4.3

11%

12%

Byron Murphy

71

190

4.55

Projected shadow matchups: Mike Evans vs. Patrick Peterson

WR/CB breakdown: Evans has "won" both of his career matchups against Peterson, posting 6-70-1 and 3-95-1 lines in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Still, he received a combined 26 targets in those two contests.

The good news for Evans is that the 2019 version of Peterson doesn't appear to be anything to fear. The Cardinals' No. 1 CB ranks outside of the league's top-50 corners in catch rate allowed, QB rating allowed as well as fantasy points allowed per cover snap and target. Both Emmanuel Sanders (7-112-1) and Michael Thomas (11-112-1) managed to excel while in Peterson's shadow over the past two weeks.

The question is whether or not both Evans AND Chris Godwin will be able to ball out in the same week after mostly alternating blowup performances throughout the Buccaneers' first eight games of the season.

  • Week 1: Evans (PPR WR80); Godwin (WR32)

  • Week 2: Evans (WR49); Godwin (WR5)

  • Week 3: Evans (WR1); Godwin (WR64)

  • Week 4: Evans (WR10); Godwin (WR1)

  • Week 5: Evans (WR106); Godwin (WR6)

  • Week 6: Evans (WR9); Godwin (WR3)

  • Bye

  • Week 8: Evans (WR1); Godwin (WR41)

  • Week 9: Evans (WR2); Godwin (WR24)

Either way: Continue to treat both Evans and Godwin as weekly WR1s against the Cardinals' 23rd-ranked defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs.

Breshad Perriman posted a season-best 4-42-1 line in Week 9, but found the end zone via one of the more ridiculous tipped passes you'll ever see. Perriman (61% snaps last week) continues to somewhat rotate with rookie Scott Miller (16%), who would've had his first career touchdown in Week 9 if he hadn't stepped out of bounds before catching the ball.

TE breakdown: TEs O.J. Howard (hamstring), Cameron Brate (ribs) and Antony Auclair (toe) are all dealing with various injuries, but Howard is at least expected to return in Week 10. Still, Tanner Hudson could continue to be involved as well, and Howard has fewer than five targets in every game since Week 1. He's a boom-or-bust TE2 regardless of the great matchup due to these volume concerns.

Falcons at Saints

Falcons Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Julio Jones

75

220

4.39

22%

34%

Eli Apple

73

199

4.4

Slot

Russell Gage

72

184

4.55

7%

9%

P.J. Williams

72

194

4.57

Right

Calvin Ridley

73

189

4.43

15%

24%

Marshon Lattimore

72

193

4.36

Projected shadow matchups: Julio Jones vs. Eli Apple, Calvin Ridley vs. Marshon Lattimore

WR/CB breakdown: Ridley absolutely roasted the Saints with a 7-146-3 performance in Week 3 of last season. He was so dominant that the Saints switched Lattimore off of Jones in the second half and had their No. 1 CB shadow the rookie WR for the remainder of the game.

The latter approach wound up being the Saints' strategy again when the teams met in Week 12.

A few notes about that matchup:

  1. Apple shadowed Jones, but the Saints bracketed the Falcons' No. 1 WR with help from a safety on nearly every snap.

  2. Lattimore largely shadowed Ridley on an island without additional help.

  3. Both Jones (11-147-0) and Ridley (8-93-1) balled out regardless.

Continue to fire up Jones as a no-doubt WR1, while Ridley can probably be approached as more of an upside WR2 moving forward. Overall, the talented second-year WR has posted 8-93-1, 8-105-1, 6-71-1, 5-88-1 and 7-146-3 lines in five career games with at least eight targets.

Russell Gage caught 7-of-9 targets for 58 scoreless yards in his debut as the Falcons' No. 3 WR. Still, he figures to work as the offense's No. 4 pass-game option (at best) more weeks than not, while backup WRs Christian Blake (18% snaps) and Justin Hardy (14%) ate into some of Gage's (57%) reps.

TE breakdown: Austin Hooper has at least four receptions in every game this season and has found the end zone in three consecutive contests. The overwhelming majority of his production has come in the second half with the Falcons trailing, but that reality doesn't appear to be on the verge of changing anytime soon. That point is particularly true this week, as the Falcons are presently 13-point underdogs. Continue to fire up Hooper as a weekly high-end TE1 even though the offense would obviously rather get Ridley and Jones more involved.

Saints Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Michael Thomas

75

212

4.57

31%

38%

Isaiah Oliver

72

201

4.5

Slot

Austin Carr

73

194

4.67

5%

9%

Kendall Sheffield

71

193

4.4

Right

Ted Ginn

71

180

4.43

13%

30%

Blidi Wreh-Wilson

73

195

4.53

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Falcons, like most of the league, haven't quite figured out a way to guard Michael Thomas over the years:

  • Week 3, 2016: 7 receptions-71 yards-1 TD (11 targets)

  • Week 17, 2016: 10-156-1 (14)

  • Week 14, 2017: 10-117-1 (14)

  • Week 16, 2017: 4-66-0 (5)

  • Week 3, 2018: 10-129-0 (10)

  • Week 12, 2018: 4-38-0 (6)

Continue to fire up Drew Brees' No. 1 WR as a weekly top-three fantasy WR. Thomas deserves to be in any conversation regarding the league's very best WR at this point.

The return of Desmond Trufant (toe) would help the Falcons' porous secondary ...

... but Ted Ginn will offer some fantasy value regardless. The 34-year-old is locked in as the offense's No. 2 WR and has posted solid enough 2-42-0, 7-101-0, 3-58-0, 3-44-0 and 5-74-0 lines in his last five games with Brees under center. A matchup against the league's 31st-ranked secondary in pass DVOA might be just what Ginn needs to provide his first boom week in awhile.

The potential return of Tre'Quan Smith (ankle) would relegate Austin Carr to the bench. Neither are realistic fantasy options at the moment.

TE breakdown: Jared Cook (ankle) is tentatively expected to return after missing two games. He posted a pedestrian 2-37-0 line on just three targets in Week 1 with Brees under center. Treat Cook as more of a low-end TE1 in this amazing matchup 

Dolphins at Colts

Dolphins Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Allen Hurns

73

198

4.55

6%

7%

Marvell Tell

74

198

4.45

Slot

Albert Wilson

69

202

4.43

9%

4%

Kenny Moore

69

185

4.52

Right

DeVante Parker

75

209

4.45

18%

29%

Rock Ya-Sin

72

192

4.51

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Dolphins lost exciting rookie WR Preston Williams (knee, IR) for the season last week. He's expected to be replaced in 3-WR sets by Allen Hurns, although pint-sized speedster Jakeem Grant should also see some snaps.

It'll be tough to trust either Hurns or Wilson in the near term, but I'm more intrigued by a full-time role for the latter receiver moving forward. Overall, Wilson's average of 3.03 yards per route run in 2018 marked the only time someone other than Julio Jones averaged over three yards per route run since 2012.

Regardless, the clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option in Miami is now DeVante Parker, who has quietly put together a solid fifth season. Overall, Parker has gained at least 50 yards and/or caught a touchdown in all but one game through nine weeks.

The PPR WR36 could trend towards more of an upside WR3 moving forward without Williams involved. Upcoming matchups against the Colts (No. 14 in fewest PPR per game allowed to WRs), Bills (No. 3) and Browns (No. 10) aren't ideal, but Parker closes the season with a fantasy-friendly four-game stretch against the Eagles (No. 27), Jets (No. 26), Giants (No. 30) and Bengals (No. 12).

TE breakdown: Mike Gesicki is making plays! The potential for Wilson, Hurns and Grant to form a three-way committee of sorts makes me believe the Dolphins' athletically-gifted TE *should* be the offense's clear-cut No. 2 pass-game option with Williams sidelined. Gesicki has spent 76% of his snaps this season in the slot or out wide, and his 20 targets since the team's Week 5 bye trails only Parker (28) and Williams (30). The talented second-year TE has earned low-end TE1 consideration with 3-51-0, 4-41-0, 2-10-0 and 6-95-0 lines over his past four games. Gesicki is a strong salary-saving option on DraftKings at just $3,100.

Colts Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Zach Pascal

74

219

4.55

10%

16%

Ryan Lewis

72

195

4.42

Slot

Chester Rogers

72

185

4.56

9%

9%

Chris Lammons

69

194

4.53

Right

Deon Cain

74

202

4.43

7%

11%

Nik Needham

71

194

4.67

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Colts’ snaps and targets for their WRs without T.Y. Hilton (calf) in Week 9 were as follows:

Note that Hilton is expected to miss another week or two at least, while Campbell (hand) will also be sidelined for a bit.

Pascal is the clear No. 1 WR in this offense at the moment. He's established himself as a truly #good pass catcher through nine weeks:

  • Yards per target: 11.9 (No. 4 among 86 WRs with at least 25 targets this season)

  • Yards per reception: 16.9 (No. 10)

  • Catch rate: 70.4% (No. 15)

  • Yards per route run: 1.91 (tied for No. 30)

I'm hesitant in expecting too much out of Rogers or Cain considering the Colts could also be without Jacoby Brissett (knee). It'd make sense if they lean on the ground game even more than usual if Brian Hoyer is ultimately under center.

TE breakdown: Perhaps the Colts will lean on their pair of talented TEs without two of their top WRs. Still, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle have combined for one game this season with more than five targets. Each should be considered as touchdown-dependent TE2s this week despite the strong matchup.

Rams at Steelers

Rams Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Brandin Cooks

70

189

4.33

14%

24%

Steven Nelson

70

197

4.49

Slot

Cooper Kupp

74

204

4.62

28%

26%

Mike Hilton

69

178

4.6

Right

Robert Woods

72

201

4.51

19%

19%

Joe Haden

71

193

4.62

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Brandin Cooks (concussion) has already been ruled out. Josh Reynolds has consistently held a full-time role and functioned as a boom-or-bust WR3 when one of the Rams' starting WRs have been sidelined over the past season and a half. He posted weekly PPR finishes of WR87, WR15, WR13, WR83, WR63, WR25, WR70, WR8 with Cooper Kupp out in 2018.

Still, this Rams Offense is clearly not the same monster as we've seen in past years. Reynolds is better treated as an upside WR4 due to the enhanced involvement of TE Gerald Everett as well as because of Jared Goff's general ineptitude both throughout the season and historically on the road.

The days of Robert Woods boasting one of the league's most fantasy-friendly floors are over. Overall, Woods already has as many games with fewer than five receptions in 2019 (4) as he did in 2018 (4). His 12 rush attempts are a nice plus, but it's tough to expect too much out of the PPR WR31 in this spot.

Kupp is the only sure-fire WR1 in the Rams Offense. The PPR WR5 has balled out for nearly the entire season, displaying a fantasy-friendly blend of route-running ability along with after-the-catch goodness. Only DeAndre Hopkins (92 targets), Julian Edelman (90) and Michael Thomas (89) have more pass-game opportunities than Kupp (87) through nine weeks.

The Rams' stud slot WR is set up better than ever against a Steelers Defense that has struggled to contain primary inside WRs for years. The likes of Tyler Lockett (10-79-0) and Julian Edelman (6-83-0) have proved that the 2019 edition isn't much different, although Pittsburgh did do a good job limiting Keenan Allen (2-33-0) and Tyler Boyd (3-33-0) after adding stud safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Continue to fire up Kupp as a matchup-proof WR1, but the rest of the Rams' pass-game options aren't set up all that well against a Steelers Defense that has been much better against the pass (No. 6 in DVOA) than the run (No. 16) this season.

TE breakdownGerald Everett has demonstrated a high ceiling for the position with 5-44-1, 7-136-0 and 4-50-1 performances since Week 4, but also a low floor with 2-9-0 and 2-15-0 lines against the 49ers and Bengals in Weeks 6 and 8, respectively. Block-first TE Tyler Higbee remains annoyingly involved, but continue to treat the Rams' primary pass-catching TE as a weekly low-end TE1. Everett is one of just 10 TEs averaging at least 5.5 targets per game this season.

Steelers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Diontae Johnson

70

183

4.53

15%

19%

Troy Hill

70

182

4.55

Slot

JuJu Smith-Schuster

73

215

4.54

20%

29%

Nickell Robey-Coleman

67

169

4.53

Right

James Washington

71

213

4.54

13%

25%

Jalen Ramsey

73

209

4.41

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Jalen Ramsey hasn't spent more than 15 snaps in the slot in a game since his career debut back in 2016, so it seems unlikely that he'll consistently follow JuJu Smith-Schuster inside.

The Steelers' No. 1 WR has demonstrated a WR2 ceiling with Mason Rudolph under center, but there's still a low floor here:

  • Week 2: 5 receptions-84 yards-0 TD (8 targets), PPR WR34

  • Week 3: 3-81-1 (7), WR21

  • Week 4: 3-15-0 (4), WR66

  • Week 5: 7-75-1 (7), WR15

  • Week 8: 5-103-1 (9), WR8

  • Week 9: 3-16-0 (5), WR67

None of Diontae Johnson (68% snaps in Week 9), James Washington (43%), Johnny Holton (35%) nor Ryan Switzer (13%) are realistic fantasy options in this tough matchup as complementary pieces in the Steelers' run-first offense.

TE breakdown: Vance McDonald posted a 5-30-1 line on seven targets in Week 9 and has played over 75% of the offense's snaps in consecutive weeks. He's on the TE1/TE2 border with this type of usage, particularly in a solid matchup against the league's ninth-worst defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to the TE position.

Panthers at Packers

Panthers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

D.J. Moore

72

210

4.42

24%

28%

Kevin King

75

200

4.43

Slot

Jarius Wright

70

180

4.42

10%

10%

Tramon Williams

71

194

4.62

Right

Curtis Samuel

71

196

4.31

21%

37%

Jaire Alexander

70

196

4.38

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Cam Newton (foot, IR) is done for the season.

Kyle Allen has looked fairly replaceable against everyone except the Cardinals and Buccaneers. The good news is that he's at least been consistent with his target share:

Nobody else has even five targets over the past six games.

Moore has caught at least five passes in four consecutive games and showed off some electric after-the-catch ability in Week 9 against the Titans. He's in play as an upside WR3 that is due to find the end zone again sooner rather than later. Only Tyler Boyd (83 targets) has more pass-game opportunities than Moore (68) without multiple touchdowns this season.

Still, Samuel will continue to offer the higher ceiling as long as Allen continues to feed the Panthers' electric third-year WR deep balls. Overall, only Kenny Golladay (23 deep-ball targets) and Mike Evans (19) have more targets thrown 20-plus yards downfield than Samuel (18) through nine weeks (PFF).

Neither WR is expected to face shadow coverage considering the Packers have abandoned that practice since being roasted by Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively. Both WRs are set up particularly well this week with Kevin King (groin) playing limited snaps at the moment.

TE breakdown: Greg Olsen has averaged 2.2 receptions for 22 scoreless yards per game since Week 4. He's nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2 as the No. 4 pass-game option against Darnell Savage and company.

Packers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

76

206

4.37

13%

24%

Donte Jackson

71

178

4.32

Slot

Geronimo Allison

75

196

4.67

12%

13%

Ross Cockrell

72

191

4.56

Right

Davante Adams

73

212

4.56

26%

33%

James Bradberry

73

211

4.45

Projected shadow matchups: Davante Adams vs. James Bradberry

WR/CB breakdown: The Packers rolled with the following rotation at WR in Davante Adams' first game since Week 4:

It's safe to ignore everyone other than Adams until someone emerges as the clear-cut No. 2 pass-game option. There's certainly a chance that never happens with each of Aaron Jones (5.1 targets per game), Jimmy Graham (4.1) and Jamaal Williams (3.5) plenty involved in the passing game as well.

The Panthers Defense has been significantly better against the pass (No. 3 in DVOA) than the run (No. 32) through nine weeks. Still, Adams is too good to go much longer without finding the end zone. Overall, only Mike Williams (54) and Christian Kirk (53) have more pass-game opportunities than Adams (47) this season without a touchdown.

Bradberry is the type of big-bodied CB that could feasibly make life more difficult than normal for Adams, but he's operating at less than 100% due to a groin injury. Fire up Adams as a WR1 that's due to bounce back sooner rather than later against one of just six defenses that's allowed at least 8.5 passes per game to opposing No. 1 WRs this season (Football Outsiders).

TE breakdown: Graham has more than five targets in a game just once this season, making him a touchdown-dependent TE2 against the league's fourth-best defense when it comes to fewest receiving yards per game allowed to the position.

Vikings at Cowboys

Vikings Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Stefon Diggs

72

195

4.46

21%

41%

Byron Jones

73

199

4.48

Slot

Olabisi Johnson

72

204

4.51

11%

13%

Jourdan Lewis

70

195

4.54

Right

Laquon Treadwell

74

221

4.68

8%

13%

Chidobe Awuzie

72

202

4.43

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Adam Thielen (hamstring) played just seven snaps before departing last week and isn't expected to suit up in Week 10.

The offense's target distribution over the last three weeks with Thielen playing just 16 total snaps has been as follows:

Note that Johnson (83% snap rate in Week 9) was significantly more involved than Treadwell (28%) last week, as the offense has leaned on two-TE formations featuring Rudolph (77%) and Smith (61%) with Thielen sidelined.

Ultimately, it's tough to back any pass catcher in the league's third-most run-heavy offense other than Diggs. He's plenty capable of balling out against a Cowboys Defense that has yielded big days to each of Robby Anderson (5-125-1), Jamison Crowder (6-98-0), Michael Thomas (9-95-0) and Terry McLaurin (5-62-1) through nine weeks. Diggs' pitiful 1-4-0 performance in Week 9 snapped his three-game streak with at least 140 yards, but he's tentatively expected to see more volume this week considering Kirk Cousins has fed his featured pass-game option 15, 7, 7, and 11 targets in games following a performance with fewer than five pass-game opportunities since 2018.

TE breakdown: Rudolph has found the end zone twice in the last three weeks, but still has just one game with more than 40 yards this season. Smith has posted 2-29-0, 5-60-0, 3-21-0 and 4-33-0 lines over the past four weeks, demonstrating a higher floor than the Vikings' long-time starter. Avoid both TEs for the time being in fantasy formats of all shapes and sizes.

Cowboys Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Michael Gallup

73

205

4.51

22%

26%

Xavier Rhodes

73

210

4.43

Slot

Randall Cobb

70

192

4.46

16%

17%

Mike Hughes

70

189

4.53

Right

Amari Cooper

73

211

4.42

21%

29%

Trae Waynes

72

186

4.31

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Michael Gallup posted 7-158-0, 6-68-0 and 7-113-1 lines in his first three games of the season, but has limped to 4-48-0, 3-34-0 and 2-33-1 performances since. Randall Cobb has been just as productive recently with 3-53-0, 2-20-0 and 6-35-0 lines over his last three games. I still expect Gallup to work as the more fantasy-friendly WR in most instances, but these recent struggles are an example of life as an auxiliary option inside of an offense with a clear-cut No. 1 WR and RB that demands 20-plus rush attempts per game.

The good news for everyone involved is that the Vikings' long-time elite group of CBs has struggled to resemble even an average unit through nine weeks:

Rhodes hasn't shadowed since Week 2. Amari Cooper could escape the situation for a good portion of the game if the Vikings change course, as he's spent at least 20 snaps in the slot in consecutive games. Nobody in the entire league has averaged more yards per route run than Cooper (4.47) in the slot among all players that have spent at least 20 snaps inside this season.

Of course, Cooper is more than capable of roasting pretty much any CB in the league inside of the friendly confines of Jerry World:

  • 5 receptions-58 yards-1 TD

  • 8-180-2

  • 8-76-0

  • 10-217-3

  • 4-20-0

  • 7-106-0

  • 6-106-1

  • 6-88-2

  • 11-226-1

  • 5-106-0

TE breakdown: Jason Witten caught 8-of-9 targets for 58 yards in Week 9. Giants-killer Blake Jarwin demonstrated his enhanced upside with a 42-yard score on his only target, but he posted a pedestrian 37% snap rate compared to Witten (80%). The Cowboys' long-time TE is averaging more yards per target (8) than he has since 2011. Continue to treat the PPR TE10 as a low-end TE1 against one of eight defenses to allow at least 60 receiving yards per game to the position this season. 

Seahawks at 49ers

Seahawks Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

DK Metcalf

75

228

4.33

18%

26%

Emmanuel Moseley

71

184

4.47

Slot

Tyler Lockett

70

182

4.4

25%

28%

K'Waun Williams

69

189

4.58

Right

Josh Gordon

75

225

4.57

15%

19%

Richard Sherman

75

195

4.6

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: It's unclear how large of a role Josh Gordon will have in his first game with the Seahawks. Regardless, I'm not expecting Flash to have anything resembling a fantasy-friendly target share in the Seahawks' run-first offense.

Anyone that says Gordon is washed is a liar.

But there simply isn't much of a ceiling or floor for the No. 3 (at best) pass-game option in this offense.

Tyler Lockett is the PPR WR3 after nine weeks and already has a career-high 72 targets. Continue to treat him as an every-week WR1, although slot CB K'Waun Williams deserves credit for allowing the fourth-lowest passer rating on balls thrown into his slot coverage among 51 qualified corners.

DK Metcalf is somewhat at risk of losing snaps and targets to Gordon, but I suspect the Seahawks will largely eliminate Jaron Brown and David Moore from the rotation rather than their beastly second-round WR. Metcalf offers weekly WR2 upside with one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the league. Overall, his 14 deep-ball targets are more than just 12 other WRs, and Russell Wilson has fed the rookie a league-high 13 end-zone targets through nine weeks.

TE breakdown: Jacob Hollister can officially be considered an upside TE2 with TE1 potential after posting a season-high 80% snap rate in Week 9. He's gone for 3-20-0, 2-18-0 and 4-37-2 lines over the past three weeks. Still, a matchup against the league's top-ranked defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to the TE position isn't exactly the spot to expect another big performance.

49ers Offense

Position

WR

Height

Weight

Speed

Tgt Share

Air Yard Share

CB

Height

Weight

Speed

Left

Deebo Samuel

71

214

4.48

16%

17%

Tre Flowers

75

202

4.45

Slot

Emmanuel Sanders

71

180

4.41

19%

27%

Jamar Taylor

71

192

4.39

Right

Dante Pettis

73

186

4.53

9%

10%

Shaquill Griffin

72

194

4.38

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: TE/FB Ross Dwelley commanded four targets and posted a season-high 70% snap rate in Week 9.

The 49ers accordingly utilized more 2-WR sets than we've seen in recent weeks:

Sanders is the offense's most fantasy-viable pass-game option outside of George Kittle. The 32-year-old WR is already demonstrating fantastic chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo while proving to still be plenty capable of winning one-on-one battles against the best CBs in the league.

Sanders has worked as the PPR WR30 and WR6 over the past two weeks. He can be treated as an upside WR2 in this great matchup against one of just three defenses to allow at least 1,600 yards to opposing WRs this season.

The only other WR in this offense that appears poised to provide anything resembling consistent fantasy value is Samuel. The 49ers have made a point to get their second-round rookie the ball all season, as he's racked up five rush attempts through nine weeks and tied a season-high mark with seven targets in Week 9. There's not much of a floor here for the No. 3 pass-game option inside of the league's most run-heavy offense, but Samuel is way more worthy of a dart throw than any of the 49ers' part-time WRs.

TE breakdown: Kittle (knee) isn't believed to be dealing with a long-term injury, but he should be considered questionable for Monday night. He's a no-doubt TE1 if active with at least six receptions in all but two games this season. Only the Buccaneers (92 yards), Cardinals (91), Bears (72), Cowboys (71) and Raiders (71) have yielded more yards per game to opposing TEs than the Seahawks (68) this season (Football Outsiders). 

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