JACKSON’S RIDICULOUS RUSHING TOTAL
Last week was a great example of the closing line not always being the worst number to bet on. We had Lamar Jackson Over at an opening line of 61.5 rushing yards and that number fell to 58.5 right before kickoff on Sunday night. So you know where this is going, right? Jackson moonwalked to 61 yards and handed us the L. We want to fade him this week, but the Cincinnati Bengals can't even come close to containing him.
Just check out these numbers in his two starts against his AFC North rivals: 19 rushes, 152 yards, TD (Week 6); 26 rushes, 119 yards (Week 10, 2018). Those are his third-most and most rushing yards in a game over his career. Lamar has amassed 1,193 rushing yards over his 15 regular-season starts and has 271 yards versus the Bengals in two games, or 23 percent of his total rushing yards in 12 percent of his games played.
Jackson is 5-0 O/U on his rushing total if you got the 58.5 last week. We are hitting the Over on his 75.5 rushing yards as the books are really pushing his number. Maybe we will look to fade next week, but for now, the matchup is in the Over’s favor.
SELLING THE SACK STREAK
Our sack streak has hit four straight games as we try to find the game of the week that will offer the most quarterback takedowns. This week we set our sights on the state of Nashville where the Titans will host the recuperated Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs pass rush has taken over since Week 7 as they have totaled 15 sacks. They will get to tee off on the Titans' 31st ranked offensive line and Ryan Tannehill who is getting sacked once every 8.35 pass attempts.
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The Titans defensive line is no cakewalk, either. They are averaging just under 3 sacks a game and will face a limited Mahomes who had been getting sacked once every 17 pass attempts in the three games before going down with a knee injury. The KC O-line also allowed Matt Moore to get sacked five times in Week 9.
The line will most likely be set at 6.5 which is still a number that we are confident taking the Over on.
CHEERING FOR OFFENSE
Four teams are allowing four or more touchdowns a game over the last three weeks: the Oakland Raiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers. Looking on the offensive side of things, we see that six teams have averaged over three TDs a game over that same three-game stretch: the Detroit Lions, the Baltimore Ravens, the Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings, the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.
If we are looking to put our money on Over total touchdowns, common sense would push us to the Lions, but facing Mitch “turn off the TVs” Trubisky is a little risky at 4.5 TDs.
We like the Panthers at Packers matchup much better as Aaron Rodgers’ offense will look to bounce back in Lambeau after last week’s dud. The Panthers have allowed nine rushing TDs in their last three in what looks like a great matchup for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams and maybe worth sprinkling anytime TDs on both of them.
The Panthers’ road games have not seen many field goals, especially recently. Carolina’s last three road games have had 22 total TDs scored with all three games getting at least seven. That includes games that were quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston.
The last game in Lambeau yielded nine total touchdowns and the cheese factory has produced 30 total TDs in five games this year. Take the Over 5.5 total TDs scored for plus money and sit back and cheer on both offenses.
MONDAY NIGHT 1Q PLAY
Don’t have time to watch the whole game but want some action? We got you, fam. No home team this week is scoring more points in the first quarter than the San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy’s boys are scoring nearly 10 points in the first 15 at Levi’s Stadium and have seen 31 total points scored in the first quarter over their last two home matches.
They will face the league’s 27th ranked DVOA defense in primetime on Monday night in the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have also seen plenty of early action. Most recently, 21 points in the first quarter last week against the Bucs.
Get on the Over 7.5 points for the first quarter and enjoy the MVP frontrunner taking on the league’s only undefeated team.
MAKING MONTY MOVES
David Montgomery has solidified his spot atop the Chicago Bears RB depth chart. The rookie runner has averaged 73 percent of the snap share over the last two weeks as Tarik Cohen has seen just 33 of 127 snaps (26%).
The big rise of his snap count has a lot to do with pass-catching ability. Monty has nine targets for seven catches and 48 yards since Week 8. The nine targets may indicate where Matt Nagy’s play-calling is headed as Montgomery had seen just 2.5 targets a game in Weeks 1 through 7.
On Sunday, the Bears will face a Detroit Lions defense that is surrendering the third-most receiving yards to running backs this year at 59.6 yards per game on eight catches. Saquon Barkley hit the Lions for 8-78-1 in Week 8 and they have also given up at least 25 yards receiving to Jamaal Williams, Darrel Williams, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler and David Johnson.
Get on Montgomery’s Over 22.5 receiving yards as Mitch Trubisky uses his check-down option all game long.