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NFL against the spread picks: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jaguars D is a great matchup

It’s OK to be excited about Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes has been great. He’s good for the game. He’s fun to watch. His performance against the Denver Broncos last Monday night was really impressive, given how much the Broncos threw at him and the deficit he brought the Chiefs back from. Since it’s 2018 and we hate everything you won’t get too far without someone complaining that Mahomes is being anointed after five games, but really, it’s fine to be excited about something fun. That’s allowed.

That doesn’t mean Mahomes is going to have an immaculate career. And maybe this is the week he’ll finally struggle.

Mahomes has the biggest challenge of his young career on Sunday. The Broncos have a good defense, but the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense is the best in the league. The Jaguars come to Kansas City on Sunday, and surely they’re tired of hearing how great the Chiefs’ offense is. It’s a showdown between the top scoring offense in the NFL and the top scoring defense. Doesn’t get much better than that.

But maybe this game swings on the other matchup. The Chiefs defense has been vulnerable all season. If Case Keenum hadn’t missed a wide-open Demaryius Thomas down the sideline late on Monday night, we’re having a much different conversation about the Chiefs right now. The Jaguars are used to being without running back Leonard Fournette, which will be the case again Sunday, and they’ve mostly done well without him.

Patrick Mahomes has been the best player through four weeks of the NFL season. (AP)
Patrick Mahomes has been the best player through four weeks of the NFL season. (AP)

I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will do fine in a tough test, but I also think Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense will do its part. I’m taking the Jaguars as three-point underdogs and believe they’ll get the straight-up upset. Either way, it should be a great game, and we’ve seen plenty of those in the NFL so far this season.

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 5 of the NFL season:

SUPERCONTEST

Titans (-3.5) over Bills: Seems like a trap, and maybe it is. The Titans are coming off a highly emotional last-second overtime win over the Eagles, and face a Bills team that will be tough to get up for (ask the Vikings about that). But the Bills have looked bad in three of four games and the Titans are finding ways to win. I’ll just take the better team. (The line is Titans minus-3 in the Yahoo Pro Football PIck’em.)

Dolphins (+6.5) over Bengals: I don’t think Miami is all that good, but they’re also not as bad as they looked last week against the Patriots. The Bengals are banged up at running back, and I just think the Dolphins will be competitive. The Dolphins might not be as good as their 3-1 record but they’re still a 3-1 team. (The line is Dolphins +6.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football PIck’em.)

Raiders (+4.5) over Chargers: We were reminded again that the Chargers have zero home games this season. The Chargers pumped in crowd noise during practice in preparation for this game, which will be played in Los Angeles. Yikes. Let’s consider this a home game for the Raiders and make the pick accordingly. (The line is Raiders +5.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football PIck’em.)

Texans (-3) over Cowboys: This is just a fade of a Cowboys team that has done nothing impressive all season. A last-second home win over the Lions wasn’t all too impressive. They still have nothing on offense aside from Ezekiel Elliott. The Texans aren’t great either, but I think their defense is good enough to slow down the one-dimensional Cowboys.

Redskins (+6.5) over Saints: The Saints are looking better, Mark Ingram is back and Drew Brees is about to make some history. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they won big, because we’ve seen them do that often in the Superdome. But I think Washington is a bit underrated, off a bye and can make things interesting. (The line is Redskins +7 in the Yahoo Pro Football PIck’em.)

And here are the rest of the picks …

Patriots (-10) over Colts (picked Thursday): I give the Colts credit for playing as hard as they did, considering their injuries, on a short week. But it really does feel like the Patriots are going to start hitting their stride.

Ravens (-3) over Browns: I know the Browns look much better this season, but they still find ways to lose. Simply, I’m taking John Harbaugh over Hue Jackson here.

Lions (pick ’em) over Packers: Green Bay is dealing with a lot of injuries, and their one trip on the road to Washington wasn’t pretty. Detroit has played better lately even though they blew a win at Dallas last week. It’s tough to pick the Lions to beat the Packers straight up but it seems like a good spot for them.

Broncos (pick ’em) over Jets: The situation is bad for Denver. They played a huge divisional game on Monday night and lost, and now have to travel east and play an early game. Still, I think the Broncos played fairly well on Monday night, it’s just that Mahomes beat them. Sam Darnold can’t do that. Also, Denver gets the Rams next week, so if they don’t win this they’re staring at a 2-4 start.

Steelers (-3) over Falcons: I don’t really like either team. Neither defense is playing well. The Steelers look like they’re searching for any identity on offense. I don’t have a strong feeling about who’s going to win, but one of these preseason Super Bowl contenders is going to enter Week 6 with just one win.

Giants (+7.5) over Panthers: It’s not that I like the Giants, especially after they played so poorly last week. It just seems like the line is a little too high.

Vikings (+3) over Eagles: It’s not easy to back the Vikings here, given how they’ve looked their last two games. But I still think this is a quality team, which has had a few extra days rest and also some playoff revenge on its mind. The Eagles are also coming off what amounts to a five-quarter game at Tennessee. If the Vikings look bad again they’re probably just a mediocre team, because this isn’t a bad situation for them.

Cardinals (+4.5) over 49ers: The 49ers had a good effort in C.J. Beathard’s first start, as many teams do in their first game with a replacement quarterback, but still fell short at the Chargers. I think we’ll see them let down a bit this week, and the Cardinals will be eager to get a win this season.

Seahawks (+7.5) over Rams: The thing that worries me most about taking the Seahawks is that losing safety Earl Thomas is a massive blow and the Rams coaching staff is going to know how to exploit that loss. Still, it’s an inflated line because who wants to bet against the Rams right now?

Last week: 9-5-1
Season to date: 31-30-3
SuperContest: 4-1 last week, 10-9-1 season to date

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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!