NFL against the spread picks: The Eagles suddenly need this win
A week ago, the Philadelphia Eagles looked like a lock to get a first-round bye in the NFC and a good bet to get home-field advantage through the playoffs.
One loss changed a lot.
The Eagles lost last week to a good Seattle Seahawks team, and that put them in a tough spot. Another loss on Sunday to the Los Angeles Rams would put them in danger of not getting a first-round bye. It‘s possible for the Eagles to go from 10-1 to the third seed in the NFC in the span of eight days (an Eagles loss and a Vikings win would leave the Rams and Eagles in a two-way tie for the second seed at 10-3, and the Rams would have the tiebreaker). That says something about the competitive nature of the NFC this season.
It’s a big game for the Rams too, and not just because of the obvious playoff seeding implications. This is the biggest game for the team since they came back to Los Angeles. It wasn’t always a warm welcome in their homecoming last year. But L.A. loves winners, the Rams are winning, and could put themselves in a great position to get a bye with another win Sunday.
It won’t be easy. If there’s a criticism of the Eagles, it’s their schedule. Football Outsiders ranks it as the second-easiest in the NFL so far this season. But the Eagles have played very well against that schedule. It’s not a team with a clear weakness.
It’s a big game for both teams, and both teams have proven by now that they’re very good. But I lean toward the Eagles. I’m picking them as a 1-point underdog in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, and a 2-point underdog in the Westgate SuperContest. I think they’re slightly better and they understand exactly what this game means. Lose it, and their path in the playoffs might be a lot harder than anyone anticipated a week ago. Either way, it should be one of the best games of the season (and a fun matchup between the top two picks of last year’s draft, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz).
Here are the Week 14 NFL against the spread picks:
SUPERCONTEST
Jaguars (-2.5) over Seahawks: Russell Wilson is having an unbelievable season, but I don’t think the Jaguars are getting enough respect with this line. Their offense has been OK, and their defense is devastating. (The line is minus-3 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)
Packers (-3) over Browns: I have a rule – I don’t pick teams getting only a field goal when they have lost 27 of 28 games over the last two seasons. The Browns are 0-6-1 against the spread in games after they covered (yes, the Browns actually covered last week!) according to OddsShark, which is another reason to go against them here.
49ers (+3) over Texans: I have Jimmy Garoppolo fever. I think you could see last week that the 49ers had an extra hop in their step with a competent quarterback. And with the Texans’ season really being buried last week with a tough loss at Tennessee, what kind of effort will we see from them? (The line is plus-2.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)
Cardinals (+3) over Titans: Titans fans can get mad, but this is not an 8-4 quality team. But they’ve had a pretty amazing scheduling run of bad opponents, and seem to barely beat them all.
Here are the rest of the picks …
Falcons (+1.5) over Saints (picked Thursday): It didn’t factor into the result, but are the Saints color rush jerseys the best uniforms in the NFL?
Bills (off) over Colts: The game has no spread in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em because of Tyrod Taylor’s injury. I assume he’ll play.
Bears (+6) over Bengals: It’s not that I’m excited about the Bears after this losing streak, but I’m not sure how much juice the Bengals will have. To lose that lead against your rival, at home on Monday night, with your season on the line? Absolutely crushing.
Chiefs (-4) over Raiders: A stubborn pick, having blind faith that the Chiefs team we saw earlier this season will show up again. The Raiders don’t impress me.
Giants (+4.5) over Cowboys: I can’t imagine the Giants were too heartbroken when Ben McAdoo got fired. They didn’t seem to be playing very hard for them. Maybe now they’ll play hard now that he’s gone.
Buccaneers (off) over Lions: This line is off the board because of Matthew Stafford’s hand injury. Stafford will likely play, because he’s tough. But it’s hard to assume he’ll be effective.
Vikings (-2.5) over Panthers: It’s hard to pick against the Vikings’ juggernaut right now. It will be tough for the Panthers offense to move the ball.
Jets (pick ‘em) over Broncos: I just can’t pick the Broncos anymore.
Redskins (+7) over Chargers: I like the Chargers, but they could be looking ahead a bit to next Saturday’s showdown with the Chiefs. And last week aside, I do think Washington is better than its record.
Ravens (+5.5) over Steelers: Isn’t it mandated somewhere that every big Ravens-Steelers game must be decided by a field goal?
Patriots (-12.5) over Dolphins: All I know is I don’t want to be sitting there in the first few minutes of “Monday Night Football” asking myself, why in the world did I pick the Dolphins?
Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 103-85-5
SuperContest: 2-3 last week, 34-28-3 season to date’
MORE NFL COVERAGE FROM YAHOO SPORTS:
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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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