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NFL Playoff Projections: Dolphins still in good shape, but there's a doomsday path now

The Miami Dolphins had to be feeling good about their spot in the playoff field a couple weeks ago.

They were 8-3 and still had hopes of winning the AFC East. There was a tough two-game road trip to California, but they had yet to lose a game that didn't involve Tua Tagovailoa being injured.

Less than two weeks later, after losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, the Dolphins have to be wondering how secure their playoff spot is.

There shouldn't be panic at 8-5, but the schedule isn't going to be easy. The Dolphins play at the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night and that's a tough game. They then host the Green Bay Packers, who aren't incapable of making that game close. After that the Dolphins are at the New England Patriots (warm weather team in the cold + Bill Belichick makes for a challenge) before hosting the New York Jets in the finale.

There is a doomsday scenario in which the Dolphins could lose all four of those games. That's unlikely, but possible. And 1-3 the rest of the way isn't that crazy. Would Miami be a wild-card team at 9-8? Well, perhaps. The Chargers have an easy remaining schedule (hence them getting the No. 7 seed in this week's projections) and the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jets have a win over the Dolphins and a sweep would go a long way for them. The Patriots aren't dead yet. If the Dolphins do finish 9-8, it'll be a lot more stressful than they'd hope.

(Yahoo Sports graphic by Michael Wagstaffe)
(Yahoo Sports graphic by Michael Wagstaffe)

The Dolphins will probably get things together and win a couple games. Defenses have done well recently taking the Dolphins' receivers away, and coach Mike McDaniel will have to figure that out. McDaniel has had a good season and he'll probably have an adjustment. Miami has been a good team most of the season and it shouldn't fade away that easily.

It's just a little more nervous for the Dolphins than it was a couple weeks ago. Unless they upset the Bills, who need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, it'll get even more stressful ini Miami.

Here are the Week 15 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

San Francisco 49ers 21, Seattle Seahawks 13

The 49ers became the first team this season to clinch a division title with their win on Thursday night in Seattle. Not only are the Seahawks out of the running for the NFC West, the loss means they're now in a dogfight for a wild-card spot.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

The Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They've won five of six and their playoff hopes are still alive after a 1-6 start. The Jets are in the wild-card mix too, but at 7-6 they don't want to take a home loss to Detroit.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers' win last week against the Dolphins was huge for their playoff hopes. But the AFC is tough and the Chargers need to keep winning. They face the Titans, who aren't in much danger of blowing the AFC South, but they've lost three in a row and have to start playing better.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 6-7 and they are suddenly in danger of losing the NFC South to the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay isn't playing well. In this week's projections we have the Panthers coming from behind and winning the division. The Panthers already beat the Buccaneers, 21-3, this season and if they win the rematch on Jan. 1, they'll have the tiebreaker and have a great shot at the NFC South title. The Bengals are playing well and are tied with the Baltimore Ravens at 9-4 for first place in the AFC North. Because of tiebreaker issues, Cincinnati probably needs to make sure it's at least tied with Baltimore going into Week 18 if it wants to win the division.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

This is the biggest game of the week for the playoff picture, even if it's between two mediocre NFC East teams. These teams tied two weeks ago, so the winner (if there is one) clinches the tiebreaker. They have identical 7-5-1 records so getting a win and the tiebreaker is huge in the wild-card race. It's hard to imagine at least one of these teams won't make the playoffs, and the winner of this Sunday night game will have a huge edge.