It's going to be downright chilly in Seattle tonight, and I'm not talking about the weather. Quarterback Russell Wilson returns to take on the team he spent the first decade of his career with, in a Monday Night Football battle between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Here are three player props on BetMGM that I'm playing in tonight's game:
Russell Wilson longest completion over 37.5 yards (-110)
They say that revenge is a dish best served cold, but the only way Wilson knows how to serve is by doing what Pete Carroll wouldn't let him do in Seattle: cook. Wilson's new coach, Nathaniel Hackett, stated in July that "As fast as [Wilson] wants to go, I want to go." Those words from Aaron Rodgers' former offensive coordinator have to be music to Mr. Unlimited's ears. Wilson is an excellent deep ball passer, holding a rating of 110.8 on passes of 20+ air yards since 2016 and completing 50% of his throws that traveled 50+ yards in the air over the last two seasons.
Wilson has hit this number in his last four season openers and in 21 of his last 31 games.
Courtland Sutton longest reception over 22.5 yards (-110)
The most likely beneficiary of a Wilson moonball is Sutton, who was Wilson's favorite target in training camp. Denver's 6-foot-4 alpha receiver has cashed this prop at a 54% clip in his career, while attached to these quarterbacks: Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Teddy Bridgewater and Brett Rypien. Sutton's potential is mile high, and Wilson is just the QB to unlock it. That begins tonight against one of the NFL's worst secondaries.
Geno Smith under 212.5 passing yards (-115)
Speaking of secondaries, the Broncos have a stingy one, led by Patrick Surtain II. While it would be hilarious for Carroll to let Smith cook in a revenge game versus Wilson, Seattle's best path to winning is by running the ball against an unimpressive Denver run defense, aka a Pete Carroll fantasy.
Smith hasn't eclipsed this number since 2014.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, PFF, and CBS Sports.