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NFL player props: Minnesota's Justin Jefferson is movin' on up in Detroit

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  • Detroit Lions
    Detroit Lions
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  • Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota Vikings
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  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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  • Justin Jefferson
    Justin Jefferson
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  • Rob Gronkowski
    Rob Gronkowski
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Can you believe it's already December? This year has flown by. It feels like only yesterday, the Detroit Lions were a respectable 0-3. As they try to secure their first win of the season in Week 13, here are the four player props I'll be playing on BetMGM:

Leonard Fournette over 62.5 rushing yards

We're still a few weeks away from Christmas, but the Falcons have been in a giving mood for months. Atlanta's defense ranks 29th in DVOA and has allowed the last six backfields they've faced to eclipse the century mark on the ground. Playoff Lenny is averaging a healthy 4.5 yards per carry and will force the Falcons to pick their poison between Tampa's Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Fournette.

Justin Jefferson longest reception over 26.5 yards

It's not a stretch to say that Jefferson is already one of the five best wide receivers in the NFL. In fact, he may be one of the top three. Minnesota's alpha burned Detroit in Week 5, turning eight targets into 124 yards, including a 37-yard catch. The Lions are surrendering the most yards per passing attempt (8.3) and rank 25th in deep completions allowed. Jefferson has hit this prop in each of his previous four games and in eight of 11 contests this year.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had 124 receiving yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 5. (Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports)
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had 124 receiving yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 5. (Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports)

Pat Freiermuth over 3.5 receptions

Eric Ebron has been fading from Pittsburgh's tight end picture like Marty McFly's family, paving the way for Freiermuth to become one of Big Benjamin's favorite targets. The rookie out of Penn State is averaging 6.7 targets over his last six outings, hitting this prop in every game. Baltimore ranks 28th in receptions allowed per game to tight ends (5.8).

Joe Mixon over 19.5 rushing attempts

Mixon's 208 carries this season account for 30.8% of the Bengals' offensive plays. That number is 43% over the last two weeks, as Mixon went from a workhorse to a workaholic, accepting 58 handoffs. Rushing and passing attempt props receive a huge boost when a player's team is racking up first downs and staying on the field. The Chargers allow the third-most first downs per game (22.5) and are the NFL's worst rushing defense by a considerable margin. Six of the last seven backfields Los Angeles has faced have logged at least 26 carries.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, Football Outsiders, teamrankings.com, CBS Sports, and nfl.com.