NFL player props: Chargers-Chiefs promises plenty of Bosa nova hits

·3 min read

If you could only watch one regular season game during the 2022 NFL season, Thursday's divisional clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs would be a pretty good pick. Both of last year's matchups came down to the wire, with the Chargers winning on a last-minute touchdown in KC and then the Chiefs repaying the favor in LA with a Travis Kelce score in overtime. Here are three player props from BetMGM that I like for tonight's contest:

Joey Bosa over 2.5 tackles + assists (-145)

When these two played each other in 2021, 49.3% of the Chiefs' offensive touches originated at or behind the line of scrimmage. Another 12.5% originated within five yards past the line of scrimmage. Bosa recorded a combined eight tackles and assists in those games. The four-time Pro Bowler has hit this prop in his last four outings against Kansas City and in seven of his nine career games versus the Chiefs. The addition of Khalil Mack to the Chargers' defense should open up even more opportunities for Bosa in 2022.

Joshua Palmer over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)

Keenan Allen's absence makes my heart grow fonder for Palmer tonight. The second-year receiver was a popular breakout candidate in fantasy circles this season, predicated on his potential as a WR3 attached to Justin Herbert, but also based on the runway that would open up for him if Allen or Mike Williams succumbed to injury.

With Allen out, Palmer now finds himself as the Chargers' WR2. You could point to the one game Allen missed in 2021, where Palmer stepped in to turn seven targets into five catches for 66 yards and a score, but that was against the New York Giants and should be taken with a grain of salt. I'd rather highlight last week's matchup between the Chiefs and Cardinals, where Arizona's Greg Dortch slotted into the WR2 role for an injured Rondale Moore and caught seven of his nine targets for 63 yards.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Valdez-Scantling may have been a boom or bust go-route runner in Green Bay, but his skill set is much more than that. Like Palmer, MVS boasts inside/outside versatility and he showed that in Week 1, catching all four of his targets and drawing a pass interference flag on the defense. He led all Chiefs receivers in offensive snaps (51) and routes run (33), and figures to elicit less attention from the Chargers Thursday than Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster. MVS has multiple paths to cashing this prop, whether it's more intermediate targets against a Chargers defense that allowed 126 yards after the catch in Week 1, or a single bomb from Patrick Mahomes.

Los Angeles Chargers Defensive End Joey Bosa has sacked Patrick Mahomes in each of their last three meetings. (Photo by Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Los Angeles Chargers Defensive End Joey Bosa has sacked Patrick Mahomes in each of their last three meetings. (Photo by Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats.