NFL player prop debate: Trey Lance takes over for 49ers, and nobody agrees on him
At BetMGM, there's a prop for which quarterback will throw the most interceptions this season. Trey Lance has gotten 28% of the money bet on that prop, by far the most in that market.
Lance also has plenty of supporters. Only four players have had more money bet on them to win NFL MVP than Lance at 4.7% (the four before him: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Tom Brady). There's no consensus on what Lance will be this season. Some people love him coming into the season. Others think he'll fail miserably.
That makes for a good debate on Lance's season totals. His passing yardage total at BetMGM is 3,449.5 and his passing touchdowns are 21.5. His interception total sits at 10.5, if you like that market.
The argument for the over on Trey Lance's passing totals
NFL analysis has become way too sped up. Lance was the third overall pick last season. Yet, how many people have given up on him after (checks notes) ... 71 career passes? Lance wasn't even that bad with those passes, posting a 97.3 passer rating.
Lance walks into a fantastic situation for a first-time starting quarterback. His receivers are Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Teams have to respect the 49ers' running game, so there won't be an inordinate amount of pressure on Lance. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a master play-caller. It's hard to get a much better situation to walk into.
To reach that passing yardage total, Lance would need 203 yards per game if he plays all season. Last season, 29 quarterbacks with more than 300 attempts reached that total. One of them was Jimmy Garoppolo at 254 yards per game. Practically speaking, if you're a starting NFL quarterback you're reaching 203 yards per game. Yes, there is injury risk in the over — that needs to be said in every player prop debate post we'll have — but if Lance is healthy for even most of the season, the bar set for him is pretty low.
There's a chance he could smash that total. The touchdown total might be a little harder. Only 14 quarterbacks threw for 22 touchdowns last season. But the yardage seems low.
The case for the under on Lance's totals
Lance doesn't have a typical injury risk. He will run more than most quarterbacks. He's more likely to miss time than, say, Mac Jones or another pocket quarterback. That's the risk of his playing style.
While it seems unlikely, there's also a chance Lance loses his job. It seems inconceivable that Jimmy Garoppolo could re-emerge, but he's still on the roster. More than that, the 49ers have playoff hopes and if Lance isn't very good — the whole "only 71 passes" thing works both ways — then maybe he doesn't make all 17 starts.
Lance isn't in a high-volume passing offense either. The 49ers would run it most of the time if they could, and presumably that will be the case with an untested second-year quarterback. While we can assume Trevor Lawrence will throw it 600 times this season, the same isn't true for Lance. He'll still likely get 3,450 yards if he starts all 17 games, but there's less wiggle room for him missing games if he's not throwing it as much as other starting quarterbacks.
The verdict
I'm high on Lance this season. I thought he was the best MVP value bet, along with Lamar Jackson, until the odds dipped to 30-to-1. And I think he's still worth a shot at those odds.
I think he has good talent and I don't worry much about betting the over on his passing yardage total. I'll lay off the passing touchdowns since it's a little harder to attain, though I think he'll go over that too. But the passing yardage is too low. I get the injury risk but any locked-in starting quarterback should throw for 3,450 yards over a 17-game season. Especially one throwing to Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle.
Perhaps Lance misses a lot of time and the under hits. I'm willing to take that risk.
