NFL odds: Prop bets for Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in Super Bowl LV

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Justin Leger
·7 min read
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Brady and Gronk prop bets for Super Bowl LV originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are set to face off in what is sure to be a thrilling matchup in Super Bowl LV.

Even with the Patriots failing to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008, fans in New England will be keeping a close eye on Sunday's showdown. Their beloved former quarterback Tom Brady will be playing for his seventh Super Bowl title, and ex-Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will be alongside him looking for his fourth.

Curran: Does Gronk have support of Pats Nation? It's complicated

Whether you're rooting for or against Brady and Gronk in Super Bowl LV, there are a number of intriguing prop bets worth checking out ahead of the big game. Here are some of the Brady and Gronk props that could interest those tuning into the Bucs-Chiefs matchup  -- odds provided by our partner, PointsBet Sportsbook.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Tom Brady Passing Yards

Over 295.5: -115

Under 295.5: -115

Our pick: A total toss-up, but the gut is saying to take the under. The Bucs are going to have to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands as much as possible to win this game. That means lots of checkdowns, short passes, and runs to keep drives going. I don't expect Brady to air it out and take too many risks when the margin of error is so slim against the best team in the league.

NFL Championship MVP

Tom Brady: +200

Rob Gronkowski: +6600

Our pick: No one will fault you for taking Tom Brady to win his fifth Super Bowl MVP trophy. Betting on Gronkowski, on the other hand, would equate to lighting your money on fire. Even if Gronk has a huge game, it's hard to imagine him being named MVP over Brady. Plus, fellow tight end Cameron Brate is going to be in the mix. Go ahead and bet Brady, but don't get too cute and put your hard-earned money on Gronk.

Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns

Over 2.5: +140

Under 2.5: -190

Our pick: Brady has only thrown for three or more touchdowns in three of his nine Super Bowl appearances. That probably has something to do with why the under here is -190. While it isn't a confident bet, the value of taking the over is too good to pass up. Brady threw for three TDs in the NFC Championship game vs. Green Bay.

Tom Brady First Pass Attempt

Complete: -200

Incomplete/Intercepted: +145

Our pick: Let's roll with "incomplete/intercepted." "Complete" is heavily favored and rightfully so, but maybe there will be some early jitters. We could see Brady tossing a checkdown on the first play to one of his running backs, who have had stone hands over the last few games. Solid value here as well.

Tom Brady Passer Rating

Over 95.5: -115

Under 95.5: -115

Our pick: Brady had a 96.1 rating in Week 12 vs. Kansas City, then posted a rating well over 100 in his next five games. It was under 95.5 in the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship game, but we're betting on it being slightly over 95.5 in Super Bowl LV.

Tom Brady Pass Attempts

Over 39.5: -115

Under 39.5: -115

Our pick: This one seems pretty easy compared to the others. Brady has attempted under 39.5 passes in only three of his nine Super Bowl appearances, and two of those instances occurred in his first three appearances. Plus, there's a strong chance the Bucs will be playing catchup in this one. Over 39.5 it is.

Tom Brady Pass Completions

Over 24.5: -115

Under 24.5: -115

Our pick: Same rationale as the pass attempts. And as we mentioned earlier, Brady should be pretty efficient in this game. Don't expect a ton of risk-taking unless there's a point where the Bucs are desperate. Hammer the over 24.5.

Tom Brady Interceptions

Exactly zero INTs: +105

Exactly one INT: +140

Exactly two INTs: +400

Three or more INTs: +1100

Our pick: Brady threw more interceptions this season than he has in any year since 2011. He tossed three picks in the NFC Championship game. He's thrown an INT in five of his nine Super Bowls, and he threw two in Week 12 vs. the Chiefs. What we're trying to say here is he'll probably throw at least one on Sunday. Since we just made the argument that Brady will be efficient in this game, let's go with "exactly one INT."

Tom Brady Rushing Yards

Over 0.5: +150

Under 0.5: -200

Our pick: Brady said during a press conference this week he plans to work on his speed this offseason. Why wait? Let's take the Over 0.5 and hope Brady puts his money (or our money?) where his mouth is.

Tom Brady First-Half Passing Yards

Over 149.5: -110

Under 149.5: -120

Our pick: We're rolling with the under 149.5 here for pretty much the same reasons we told you to take the under for the total passing yards.  

Tom Brady First-Half Passing Touchdowns

Over 1.5: +220

Under 1.5: -300

Our pick: We told you to take the over for total touchdowns and we're telling you to do the same for the first half. Did you see what Brady did to Green Bay in the first half of the NFC Championship game? Over 1.5 at +220 is great value.

Tom Brady Completion Percentage

Over 62.5: -140

Under 62.5: +110

Our pick: Brady's completion percentage in Week 12 vs. KC was 65.9. He hasn't topped 56 percent in the playoffs, but we think that'll change on Sunday. Take the over.

Bucs' First Touchdown Scorer

Rob Gronkowski: +700

Tom Brady: +1100

Our pick: To clarify, Brady would have to earn a rushing/receiving TD for this ticket to cash. We don't see that happening. Gronk getting the Bucs on the board is far more probable, but we'd stay away from this one altogether and take someone else. Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette at +39, or Chris Godwin at +450, would be your best bets.

Rob Gronkowski Receptions

Over 2.5: -110

Under 2.5: -120

Our pick: Gronk hasn't had more than two receptions in a game since Week 15 vs. Atlanta (3). In fact, he's only accomplished the feat in two of his last 11 games. There's an obvious chance Brady and Gronk bring their well-known connection back for another Super Bowl, but the numbers say the under is far more likely.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards

Over 31.5: -115

Under 31.5: -115

Our pick: If we're taking the under for the receptions, I guess we have to lean toward the under here too. It's worth noting Gronk posted seven catches for 106 yards vs. KC in Week 12, so there's risk in betting against the former Patriots tight end.

Rob Gronkowski First Reception Yards

Over 8.5: -140

Under 8.5: +105

Our pick: The under at plus money is too tempting to pass up, so let's just go with that. We're picturing an eight-yard completion to Gronk on third down just to tick all of the -140 over bettors off.

Player With Most Receiving Yards

Rob Gronkowski: +4000

Our pick: Don't do this. Go with Travis Kelce (+175), Tyreek Hill (+195) or Mike Evans (+600) instead.

Brady, Gronk, and the Bucs are betting underdogs vs. KC. Kickoff for Super Bowl LV is set for 6:30 p.m. ET.