NFL Network forecasts Hunter Long as 5th most productive rookie TE
The Miami Dolphins made a surprising selection in the third round of the 2021 NFL draft when they opted to forego drafting a running back or linebacker and instead committed to drafting a tight end. Boston College product Hunter Long had his name called for Miami and he brings with him to the Dolphins some added pressure due to fan scrutiny over the team’s decision to forego a ball carrier. Fair or not, it will always be a selection looked at through that perspective — at least until Long silences the doubters.
Can he do so as early as this season?
NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund has released her projections for the 5 most productive rookie tight ends for the 2021 NFL season courtesy of her ‘Game Theory’ model and, sure enough, Long made the cut. He is listed as Frelund’s No. 5 tight end for the 2021 season from this year’s rookie class.
“Long is my second-highest ranked rookie tight end when it comes to win share. However, this article focuses on production in fantasy football categories, so he slides a bit in the forecast because of the pass-catching situation he finds himself in (with Will Fuller, Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle also competing for opportunities). However, Long was targeted 17 times in one game at Boston College — and PFF gave him an impressive 83.2 pass game grade last season — so it’s not hard to see his pass-catching potential. On passing downs where the target was in the middle third of the field, Long was able to create separation of at least three feet at the second-highest rate last season among Power Five tight ends. Given his strong performance in blocking and spatial metrics, Long’s versatility helps project usage in the NFL. Being on the field doesn’t ensure fantasy gold, but it’s certainly a good starting point and helps drive value for the entire offense.” — Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com
Long will need to beat out competition from Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen if he’s going to gobble up snaps at a significant rate this season, but as Frelund points out, his experience with his hand in the dirt gives him a rare advantage over many rookie tight ends who must learn that portion of the game. And if he gets the run blocking and pass protection down, Long will naturally be eligible to play more snaps. More snaps means more routes run and more routes run means more balls caught.
It all ties together for Long — but Frelund appears optimistic despite the crowded tight end room in Miami.
