NFL MVP odds: Despite long preseason odds, sportsbooks are rooting for Aaron Rodgers to win MVP
Back in August, there wasn’t any talk of Aaron Rodgers as NFL MVP.
You might regret not betting him to win MVP now. He had +2500 in preseason odds at BetMGM. But nobody was thinking about him as an MVP contender.
The narrative on Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers centered around his lack of weapons, the Packers’ weird draft and the decision to take quarterback Jordan Love in the first round. There was far more talk about when Rodgers would get replaced than Rodgers being the best player in football.
That has set up an interesting situation for sportsbooks. You’d think, in hindsight, that one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks ever being +2500 before the season to win MVP would be a problem for the house. Instead, sportsbooks are rooting for him to win.
Aaron Rodgers was discounted before the season
Again, let’s go back to August.
Just about everyone was down on Rodgers. He was going an average of 98th in Yahoo’s fantasy drafts. He was the 12th QB off the board, behind Carson Wentz and a few picks ahead of Matthew Stafford.
Nobody was betting Rodgers to win MVP, even at longer odds.
Rodgers has taken just 7% of MVP bets and 6% of the money bet in that market. Some of that has come after Rodgers’ odds dropped from the preseason high of +2500. Patrick Mahomes had 27% of the money and Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry leads with 34% percent of the bets. There’s a liability for BetMGM on Mahomes because of the volume, but his odds were +400 in the preseason and recently got to -400 before dipping a bit. It’s hard to take too big of a loss when the odds aren’t that high.
But it would still be a loss, which means Rodgers is who sportsbooks are rooting for down the stretch.
Patrick Mahomes still MVP favorite
It would take something peculiar for anyone other than Rodgers or Mahomes to win MVP. Josh Allen, Henry and a few others have had great years, but they’d need to be phenomenal in the final three weeks to make up the gap.
Rodgers is coming on. Mahomes is still the big favorite — Mahomes is -250, Rodgers is +200 — but Mahomes is coming off a three-interception game (albeit in a win) and the Rodgers narrative is gaining steam.
Anyone who did back Rodgers when he was 25-to-1 is feeling pretty good right now. Sportsbooks won’t mind paying that bet off. It means they’ve collected a lot of Mahomes MVP money.
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