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NFL line movement: Bettors starting to doubt the Cowboys?

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Week 13 of the NFL season is somehow already upon us. The games are becoming more important as teams jockey for playoff position. For some teams, the focus turns to securing the best draft position possible. If you're a fan of the Chicago Bears or Seattle Seahawks, I don't know what your motivation is to keep watching. 

Four teams are on bye this week, which means we have 14 games on the Week 13 schedule. As we approach the end of the season, each game means that much more. Which games have seen significant line movement at BetMGM in the early part of the week?

Are people starting to doubt Dallas?

The Dallas Cowboys opened the season with a 6-1 record and a 7-0 mark against the spread. Dak Prescott looked unaffected by his gruesome injury from last season, Ezekiel Elliott looked fresh, and the defense looked to have done a complete 180 from the previous season. Dallas was one of the elite teams in the league and it was lining the pockets of those who were backing them on a weekly basis.

In its last four games, Dallas has lost three of them straight up. The Cowboys also failed to cover the spread in those three losses despite being favorites of at least a touchdown in two of them. The whole country watched Dallas fail to slow down the Raiders on Thanksgiving. 

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 25: Anthony Brown #30 of the Dallas Cowboys sits in the end zone after being called for pass interference against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 25, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
It has been a rough stretch for the Dallas Cowboys. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

It's no surprise to see that confidence in Dallas is waning. After opening as 5.5-point favorites, the Cowboys are currently down to just 4.5-point favorites in New Orleans against the Saints.

Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy as well as other assistant coaches due to COVID-19. Amari Cooper is questionable. For New Orleans, it will likely start QB Taysom Hill, who can't possibly be worse than Trevor Siemian. These factors, coupled with a distrust in Dallas, have caused this line to move a full point. 

San Francisco up, Seattle down

While we'd all like to act like we're extremely flexible and adaptable, there's no denying that we have preconceived notions and it takes us a while to let go of them. 

One of those notions that we all probably shared was that Russell Wilson and Seattle were a solid team, led by one of the league's best quarterbacks in an offense that has potential to be fun and explosive. It seems like the oddsmakers shared those thoughts.

However, at this point we must acknowledge the results. Seattle is 0-3 against the spread since Wilson returned from a finger injury, scoring just 28 points combined in those three games. It's a sunk year for the Seahawks, and there are probably major changes coming this offseason. Don't continue to lose money based on what you expected Seattle to be, or what they could be. 

It seems like the betting market has finally done that this week. Seattle is now a 3.5-point underdog at home against the San Francisco 49ers. The line opened with the Seahawks as just 2-point underdogs but the movement has been quick and blew right through the key number of three. 

Not only has Seattle been putrid, but San Francisco has been very good as of late. The 49ers have won and covered in four of their last five games. Hopefully for their sake, the 49ers' offense can survive without Deebo Samuel. 

Daniel Jones injury shifts line

When a starting quarterback in the NFL goes down, you get to see what the betting market and oddsmakers think of the value of said quarterback. It's been reported that Daniel Jones is unlikely to play this weekend for the Giants against the Dolphins due to a neck injury. Backup quarterback Mike Glennon would get the start in his absence. 

The Giants opened as 2.5-road underdogs when it was still expected Jones would start. Once his status came into question, the Dolphins moved to 4.5-point favorites. There's been some buy back in recent hours as the Dolphins are currently down to 4-point favorites against the Giants.

Both teams have been performing very well against the spread in recent weeks, and a lot of that for the Giants has been fueled by the defense. Will they be able to score enough to stay within this new inflated number if Glennon gets the start?

Other line moves

What's going on with the rest of this week's NFL betting landscape?