NFL GPP Pivots: Week 16

Spencer Limbach
·4 min read



Welcome to the NFL GPP Pivots article, where we’ll be looking to uncover some sneaky-good DFS plays away from the popular lifts. These recommendations are usually risk/reward commodities meant to be used in large-field tournaments. Typically, blending these low-owned hidden gems with well-aligned staples contributes to a viable GPP strategy.

Keep in mind that the following player write-ups were constructed earlier in the week, and sometimes injury situations can alter the fantasy landscape. Monitoring our NFL News & Headlines Feed up until game time will keep you in the loop while giving you the subsequent DFS consequences of each information piece.

We will be looking at the Sunday main slate, meaning the Sunday night game is not included in the following analysis.

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert - LA Chargers (vs. Denver) - DK: $7,400 FD: $8,200 Yahoo: $33

What rookie wall? Last week, Herbert bounced-back in Las Vegas with 28 fantasy points: 314-2 & rush TD. That provides some comfort to potential DFS backers, as Herbert only produced 23 total fantasy points in his previous two outings. The rookie is showing signs of life, which raises optimism in this week’s home matchup vs. Denver - who has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs in 2020. You can stack Herbert with RB Austin Ekeler or choose a healthy receiver between Keenan Allen (questionable), Mike Williams, or Tyron Johnson (if Allen out/limited).

Also Consider: Lamar Jackson, Drew Lock

RUNNING BACK

David Johnson - Houston (vs. Cincinnati) - DK: $6,100 FD: $6,700 Yahoo: $22

David Johnson is not an exciting fantasy pick, but he holds some value for a relaxed mid-range salary. Game flow should be on his side against Cincinnati, and Johnson’s involvement in the passing game serves as a huge boost. He came down with 11 catches (11 targets) for 106 yards last week, and I’m expecting him to retain a heavy workload with Duke Johnson still out.

Ito Smith - Atlanta (at Kansas City) - DK: $4,000 FD: $5,000 Yahoo: $15

Most people won’t look towards the Atlanta running game in this matchup, but it’s worth noting that Ito Smith has taken over as the lead RB. That didn’t translate to much last week, but Smith is still taking first dibs on the ATL rushing attempts (goal-line touches too). Smith is cheap with an outside chance of scoring, and Kansas City has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Look towards Ito as a cheap filler with some upside if things break his way.

Also Consider: J.D. McKissic, Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon

WIDE RECEIVER

Cam Sims - Washington (vs. Carolina) - DK: $3,300 FD: $5,000 Yahoo: $10

Terry McLaurin is doubtful, meaning Cam Sims will have a chance to step up. Sims has looked good with eight or more targets in two of his past three outings, and that workload should be sustained (if not increased) with McLaurin probably sitting out. Cam has been a boom-or-bust receiver all season, but an uptick in volume unleashes potential upside. The matchup vs. Carolina doesn’t look too bad either.

Darnell Mooney - Chicago (at Jacksonville) - DK: $4,000 FD: $5,400 Yahoo: $12

Most people will look towards Chicago RB David Montgomery in DFS while ignoring the Bears’ passing attack. While Montgomery is in a great spot, let’s keep in mind that Jacksonville ranks 31st in passing defense while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs. Mooney is a sneaky-good lift within that, as he has snagged a touchdown in two straight games. He becomes an even better pick if Allen Robinson (questionable) is out or limited.

Also Consider: Chad Hansen, T.Y. Hilton, Tim Patrick

TIGHT END

Donald Parham Jr. - LA Chargers (vs. Denver) - DK: $2,500 FD: $4,200 Yahoo: $10

Parham makes for a dirt-cheap stacking option with QB Justin Herbert. You can definitely play him solo as well. Hunter Henry is out for the Chargers, and Parham should absorb somewhere close to a full-time role. The 6’8” TE scored four touchdowns in five XFL games for the Dallas Renegades, so you know he has the ability.

Also Consider: Noah Fant, Mark Andrews