NFL futures, odds: New England might struggle to keep pace in the AFC
The New England Patriots might be the toughest team in the league to figure out. That and their history of winning are probably the main reasons why the average football fan dislikes the team.
On one hand, a look at the Patriots' roster is far from inspiring. Mac Jones is a young quarterback that played well in his rookie season, but there's debate over how high his ceiling is. Their top receiving options include names like DeVante Parker and Jakobi Meyers. They would be third options on most top teams.
However, once you begin to question the Patriots' roster, decision-making and talent, you have to remember who their coach is. If this team was coached by anyone other than Bill Belichick, I don't think many would be viewing it as a team that can make noise in the AFC. However, with Belichick at the helm, fade the Patriots at your own peril.
Every season, it seems like the Patriots are better than we expected. Yahoo's Frank Schwab prepared for that outcome by ranking New England ninth in his preseason power rankings. The betting market isn't quite that high on the Patriots, but it certainly isn't disregarding them either.
Patriots are underdogs to make the playoffs
New England surprisingly won 10 games last season with a rookie quarterback and pushed Buffalo for the division crown up until the final few weeks of the season. It was a reminder that with Belichick at the helm, this team will remain competitive and relevant. However, the Patriots were embarrassed in their playoff game against the Buffalo Bills. The difference in talent on the field was obvious, and for one of the very few times in his career, Belichick didn't have an answer or look prepared for the onslaught.
With the playoff loss fresh in their minds, the Patriots didn't improve much in the offseason. Meanwhile, almost every other team in the AFC improved its roster. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that oddsmakers are projecting the Patriots to take a step back. Their over/under for wins this upcoming season is set at 8.5. They can go over this total and still finish with a worse record than last year. Action on the Patriots win total is split, as 52% of bets are backing the over. However, 60% of the money is backing the under, which suggests some sharper money coming in on that side.
The Patriots are -165 favorites to miss the playoffs at BetMGM. Those odds suggest New England misses the playoffs over 62% of the time. Similarly to the the win total, we're seeing a great disparity in the betting action in this market. Currently, 54% of bets are on the Patriots to make the playoffs, but 73% of the money is on them to miss the postseason.
New England is +475 to win the AFC East after finishing second in the division last year. Those odds are tied with the Dolphins for second best, comfortably behind Buffalo who is a -225 favorite. Oddsmakers basically view the Patriots and Dolphins as equals, with both teams at -115 to finish top two in the division. New England is +175 to finish second and +135 to finish third. Miami has the exact same odds.
Surprisingly enough, bettors have no interest in backing New England to win the division. It's received under 12% of the betting action while every other team — yes, even the Jets — has received at least 24% of bets. The same applies from a money wagered standpoint. New England is getting less than 6% of the betting handle while all three other teams have gotten at least 15%.
Patriots are Super Bowl long shots
New England enters the 2022 NFL season with 40-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Those odds are tied for 17th best with the New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders and Minnesota Vikings. This feels like an appropriate tier for the Patriots. This group wouldn't be a huge surprise to make the playoffs, but winning the Super Bowl seems like a rather unrealistic outcome.
Bettors are not in love with the Patriots' chances of winning it all. Just 1.3% of all bets at BetMGM are backing the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. That's the fewest number of bets that any team that made the playoffs last season has received.
The Patriots are 22-to-1 to win the AFC and represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Those odds are tied for 10th best with the Raiders and Dolphins. The Patriots are the fourth-least popular bet in the conference. Only Cleveland, Jacksonville and Houston have received less betting action to win the conference.
The Patriots are 16-to-1 to enter the playoffs as the No. 1 seed. Those are the ninth-best odds, just behind the Tennessee Titans and ahead of the Raiders, Dolphins and Browns.
Patriots player props and awards
What does the betting market think of some key Patriots' players entering the season?
Mac Jones
Jones enters his sophomore season with 50-to-1 odds to win NFL MVP. Those odds put him in the same tier as Jonathan Taylor, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa. It's not rare for a second-year quarterback to take the step toward MVP, as we've seen Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson do it in recent years. However, bettors don't foresee that happening with Jones. He's received just 0.7% of the bets in the MVP market, the same amount as Jared Goff and Justin Fields.
Jones is 35-to-1 to lead the league in passing yards. Those odds are 18th best and just ahead of fellow second-year quarterback Trey Lance. Jones finished 13th last season. The former Alabama quarterback is 50-to-1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns. Those odds are tied for 16th best with Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and three other quarterbacks. Jones finished 14th in the category last season.
After posting 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his rookie season, Jones' season-long props for the upcoming season are set at 3949.5 passing yards, 23.5 touchdowns and 12.5 interceptions.
Damien Harris
Harris trailed only Jonathan Taylor in rushing touchdowns last season, but he's a 25-to-1 long shot to lead the league in rushing scores this season. Those odds are 10th best, tied with Ezekiel Elliott and four others. Harris is 22-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards after finishing 10th last year. Those odds are 11th best, just behind Christian McCaffrey and Javonte Williams.
Matthew Judon
Matthew Judon posted 12.5 sacks last season, which makes over 10 sacks an intriguing bet for the upcoming season at BetMGM. He's 25-to-1 to lead the league in sacks after finishing seventh last season. Those odds are 14th best and tied with four others, including Von Miller.
Jakobi Meyers
After posting 83 receptions, 866 receiving yards and two touchdowns last season, Meyers' season-long props for the upcoming season are set at 65.5 receptions, 724.5 receiving yards and 3.5 touchdowns. Those look like easily attainable numbers, though its worth noting that Meyers didn't score his first receiving touchdown until his 42nd career game and only has two in his career.
The defensive backs
Devin McCourty's interception prop for the upcoming season is set at 2.5 picks. He had three last season, but has only gone over this number four times in his 12-year career. Malcolm Butler is back in New England, and he also has an over/under of 2.5 interceptions. He had four last season with Tennessee, but in four prior seasons with New England he has gone over this number just once.
Bill Belichick
Belichick is 40-to-1 to win NFL Coach of the Year. Those odds are tied for 26th best with Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy and Matt Rhule. This is often a narrative-based award and there's not much Belichick can do to impress the public these days. Belichick is a three-time winner of the award. Only Don Shula has four.
Patriots open as road underdogs
New England opens the season on the road with a divisional matchup. The Patriots head to Miami, where New England is a 2.5-point road underdog. This line opened at New England +3 earlier in the summer, but the full field goal is no longer available to bettors who want to back the Patriots. New England is +120 to win the game outright.
Miami won both games against the Patriots last season, including a Week 1 win in New England. However, the Dolphins have a new coach and Belichick has been known to feast on rookie coaches and young quarterbacks. Miami is much improved on paper and there's excitement around the team, but the Patriots could be a live dog in Week 1.
