You won't find on the calendar when the NFL Draft silly season officially starts, but we found out that it began Tuesday morning.
Bryce Young has been the comfortable favorite to go No. 1 overall in the draft for a few weeks. Most reports since his odds went to near-lock territory have indicated that Young will be the pick to the Carolina Panthers. There has been a lot of movement with the odds for the second pick, who will be the top defensive player taken and other markets, but it seemed we were safe with the first pick on our mock drafts.
Then came Tuesday and a big odds shift that might have happened due to a Reddit thread. Seriously.
Out of nowhere, BetMGM moved Kentucky quarterback Will Levis' odds to the second favorite at +500. Young's odds were chopped from -2000 to -1400.
Moves like that happen due to either big bets or a lot of bets, and it seems the action came after a Reddit thread claimed Levis is saying he will be the No. 1 pick.
Will Levis' odds move in a big way
Tuesday morning, a thread was posted in reddit.com/r/sportsbook by "SaleAgreeable2834" that said "Will Levis is currently +4000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman, he's telling friends and family Carolina will in fact take him on Thursday. You're welcome."
A thread on r/sportsbook claiming Will Levis is telling friends and family the Panthers are taking him #1 overall has moved his odds to be the top pick from +4500 to +400 https://t.co/y412BXfhSA
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) April 25, 2023
To be clear, -1400 for Young still makes him a big favorite. And +500 for Levis is a significant underdog with less than 20% implied odds of happening.
It's still a huge odds shift based on bets that came in, which were apparently inspired by a Reddit thread claiming Levis was telling friends and family that he'd be the first overall pick.
Welcome to the NFL Draft silly season.
Where will Levis be picked?
One of the weirdest parts of the Levis leap on Tuesday is early in the morning he wasn't even on the top three favorites to go first at BetMGM.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 25, 2023
Levis is perhaps the most debated prospect in this year's draft class. He didn't have a great final college season at Kentucky. He has obvious physical skills but critics point out that he isn't that accurate, turned it over too much and didn't have great production last season. Still, he became the favorite to go second overall, a pick the Houston Texans own. That was a surprise to many who believe Levis is clearly the fourth-best QB in this class.
After Levis' odds to go first overall had a startling shift Tuesday, maybe we just don't know anything anymore. If a Reddit thread truly tipped off the top overall pick and some big betting wins come of it, that will be a unique chapter in the weird world of NFL Draft betting.