NFL draft betting: We know 5 QBs will be picked in the first round, will you bet on there being a 6th?

·4 min read

The only question about the top five quarterbacks in the draft is how long it will take for all of them to be off the board. 

You can make a feasible argument that, with trades, all five will go in the top five picks. Unlikely, but you can tell yourself that story. The Atlanta Falcons at No. 4 overall and Cincinnati Bengals at No. 5 should have ample opportunity to move down, with teams looking to move up and land their quarterback of the future. 

Unless something weird happens, we're getting five quarterbacks picked in the first round, no matter how long the fifth one lasts. BetMGM is asking a different question in one of their most intriguing prop bets: Will there be six quarterbacks in the first round? 

That's harder to figure out. 

Justin Fields is one of the five quarterbacks very likely to go in the first round. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara, File)
Justin Fields is one of the five quarterbacks very likely to go in the first round. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara, File)

Which QBs will go in the first round? 

Trevor Lawrence is going first to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Zach Wilson will go No. 2 to the New York Jets by all accounts, and Mac Jones is a big favorite to go third to the San Francisco 49ers. Justin Fields won't last long after that, and Trey Lance is about as good of a fifth quarterback option as you'll find in a draft. 

After that is where it gets tricky, and BetMGM's odds on how many quarterbacks will go in the first round reflect that. 

(BetMGM screen shot)
(BetMGM screen shot)

BetMGM's odds reflect that it's unlikely for a sixth quarterback to get in the first round, but that could lead to a nice payday for bettors. 

The good news for over bettors is there are a few candidates that could get in the first round: Stanford's Davis Mills, Florida's Kyle Trask, Texas A&M's Kellen Mond and Wake Forest's Jamie Newman. Individually none of them are good bets to get in the first round, but all it would take is one team to like them and pick them late in the first round to make a nice profit on the over. 

There has never been six QBs in the first round

For our NFL draft props series, we'll get the thoughts of Yahoo Sports NFL draft expert Eric Edholm, who breaks down the draft year-round: 

Edholm: "We've spent the past few months talking up the Big 5. History shows we haven't had a six-QB Round 1 since 1983. Easy money, eh? I don't know about that. It's by no means a sure thing, but I think there's a chance Stanford's Davis Mills could slip in late in the first. In a typical cycle, maybe he's a second- or third-rounder. But he's intriguing enough after 11 college starts that it would not at all shock me. If the first five QBs go really fast — say, in the top 10 picks — there are going to be some QB-needy teams picking after No. 15 (New England, Washington, Chicago, New Orleans, etc.) that might not be willing to pay up to land one of them, either by trading back, staying put and taking him or even moving up from Round 2. If you're going to take a QB relatively high, you might as well move up into the first 32 to secure that fifth-year option. And with the betting odds being what they are, I like the idea of a small play that could lead to a solid payoff."

The best argument for an NFL team reaching on a quarterback in the late first round is the fifth-year option. Having an extra year on a quarterback contract is far more valuable than any other position. Ask the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott. If you take a quarterback outside of the top 10 and he hits, it's still going to cost you plenty on his second deal and the fifth year gives more flexibility to figure it out. The fifth year is beneficial in many ways to teams, which is why you'll see a move up to the late first round sometimes — notably, it happened with Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson — to draft a QB sooner than he should go. 

The first five parts of that over 5.5 will be taken care of early. Then it might be a long time sweating out whether the sixth quarterback sneaks in the first round. 

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