Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Thursday Night Football of Week 4. Tonight’s matchup is between the Broncos and Jets with New York listed as a one-point home favorite with an over/under of 41.
We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate.
We will be producing these articles for Thursday and Monday primetime matchups every week, so be sure to bookmark the Rotoworld Daily page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content.
Melvin Gordon III - RB - Denver (DK: $11,000 / FD: $15,000)
This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as Gordon is the most reliable fantasy asset on the slate. His DFS outlook improves with Phillip Lindsay unlikely to suit up. Gordon was quiet last week while translating 12 touches into 38 yards (no touchdowns) against Tampa Bay. We can expect a full bounce-back against a New York Jets team that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season. Gordon will likely be the focal point of a Denver offense that will feature rookie QB Brett Rypien under center. The volume, matchup, and overall skill set align for Gordon to post a solid fantasy performance.
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Jamison Crowder - WR - NY Jets (DK: $8,200 / FD: $11,500)
Although he’s on the injury report (hamstring), early reports suggest that Crowder will play tonight. There’s a good chance he’ll lead this inefficient Jets’ offense that desperately needs playmaking ability. QB Sam Darnold loves looking towards Crowder in the slot, so he’ll likely see double-digit targets in a non-imposing matchup against the Broncos’ secondary. Crowder carries merit through all formats, but I especially like him on a full PPR site like DraftKings. He can be utilized as your Captain over there.
Chris Herndon - TE - NY Jets (DK: $5,400 / FD: $7,500)
Putting Herndon in a section called “Best Bargains” might be too generous. In fact, it’s tough to feel good about any value plays on this slate. Herndon at least finds himself in position for respectable volume, as he has seen 16 targets over three games this season. He has only turned that into 12 catches for 63 yards, but facing the Bills/49ers/Colts doesn’t exactly open the door for fantasy value. The Broncos let Tennessee TE Jonnu Smith score against them in the season-opener, while the combination of Gronkowski and Howard posted 9-97 on Denver last week. Herndon doesn’t rack up many big-gainers, so you are hoping he can record five-plus catches with an outside chance of finding the end-zone. His $7,500 salary on FanDuel seems more reasonable than the $5,400 offer on DraftKings.
KJ Hamler - WR - Denver (DK: $4,800 / FD: $7,500)
Courtland Sutton will continue to miss time, giving snaps to Denver backup WRs. Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler are the direct beneficiaries. Patrick came through with a 4-43-1 line last week, but Hamler actually saw more targets (5 vs. 4). Even though Hamler hasn’t been efficient with his looks over the past two weeks (12 targets, 6-78), it’s nice to see him involved in the offense. He’ll have a chance to make good on those opportunities on Thursday Night Football. Don’t forget about him when building tournament lineups.
Sam Darnold (QB - NYJ) is the strongest QB option of this slate, but that’s not saying much. The matchups have been tough, but Darnold’s fantasy output has been limited with no real upside in sight. He’s in play through all formats due to low opportunity cost on this slate, but he’s not a 100% must. Braxton Berrios (WR - NYJ) is an interesting option, as he has been stepping up with Crowder out over the past few weeks. Now that Crowder will presumably return to the fold, Berrios could either stand on the sidelines, or they could play him outside the slot (with Crowder on the field). Either way, he’s a fragile DFS play who doesn’t seem inclined to repeat his solid outings over the past two weeks.
Brett Rypien (QB - DEN) is getting the start for Denver tonight. As if his fantasy projection wasn’t shaky enough, the Broncos are still planning on using QB Jeff Driskel in certain situations. We aren’t quite sure what that means, but it’s probably best to avoid this spot in cash games.
Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Noah Fant (TE - DEN) and Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) are undoubtedly the top targets. Even though Jeudy has more targets (24) than Fant (21), I’m leaning more towards the Denver tight end as a safety blanket for his rookie quarterback.
Frank Gore (RB - NYJ) will lead the NYJ rushing attack with Le’Veon Bell out. He is touchdown-dependent against a legitimate rushing defense, which significantly curbs his already questionable fantasy appeal. Kalen Ballage (RB - NYJ) is the third-down back who could benefit from the full PPR scoring on DraftKings - even though his salary is notably marked-up over there. Lamical Perine (RB - NYJ) is very cheap on DraftKings ($1,800) after getting nine touches last week. You can look towards him as a tournament filler, hoping he can break a long-gainer or sneak into the end-zone.
With a 41 point over/under and two subpar quarterbacks taking snaps, both the Broncos Defense and Jets Defense are worth considering through all formats. Although the Broncos have more talent on that side of the ball, the Jets are cheaper (on DraftKings) while facing a rookie quarterback. I don’t mind looking that way as a bargain filler instead of hoping for a depth WR to come through.