NFL DFS Single Games: MNF Week 16

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Spencer Limbach
·5 min read
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Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Monday Night Football of Week 16. Today’s matchup is between the Bills and Patriots with Buffalo checking in as a seven-point road favorite. The over/under currently rests at 47 total points. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET.

We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate.

We will be producing these articles for Thursday and Monday primetime matchups every week, so be sure to bookmark the Rotoworld Daily page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content.

TOP PICKS

Josh Allen - QB - Buffalo (DK: $12,600 / FD: $16,500)

No surprise here. Allen has the best floor/ceiling combination of any player on this slate, and it’s not hard to squeeze him in as your MVP/CPT. He’s going up against a quality New England defense, but Allen’s passing volume mixed with rushing upside is overpowering. On top of that, the Bills have played three straight teams ranked top ten in passing defense: San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Denver. Allen produced 30, 20, and 38 (!) fantasy points respectively in those matchups. He should continue to cruise tonight, profiling as an essential top lift through all formats.

Stefon Diggs - WR - Buffalo (DK: $11,000 / FD: $15,500)

I mentioned in the previous write-up that Allen has passing volume on his side. Diggs is the primary beneficiary of that, as he leads the NFL with 147 targets this season. That averages out to 10.5 per contest, and he has seen 12.3 targets/game over his last three. Tonight’s matchup is tough, and the Patriots will try to limit Diggs the best they can. He posted an amicable 6-92 line on nine targets vs. New England earlier this season, and Diggs could realistically post his third-straight 100+ yard game tonight.

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BEST BARGAINS

John Brown - WR - Buffalo (DK: $2,800 / FD: $5,000)

Will John Brown be activated for this game? We’ll probably have to check back closer to kickoff. However, the Bills released WR Jake Kumerow, a move that potentially means Brown is ready to rejoin the team. If he plays, Brown makes for a nice fantasy bargain on both sites. We aren’t sure if he’ll see his regular snaps right away, but the unbelievably low salaries make that less of a risk. Double-check as we move closer to kickoff, and don’t be afraid to roster Brown if he’s playing.

Damiere Byrd - WR - New England (DK: $4,000 / FD: $9,500)

Checking in as seven-point underdogs, the Patriots will probably be throwing more than desired tonight. Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd are the top targets for QB Cam Newton, although they both have a low fantasy floor. Byrd is cheaper, especially on DraftKings - where the $4,000 salary seems way too low. You can look to him through all formats over there (full PPR doesn’t hurt either), but he’s probably better utilized in tournaments on FanDuel.

Tyler Bass - K - Buffalo (DK: $3,800 / FD: $9,000)

Bass is a steady bargain on both sites. As mentioned several times already, the Bills are facing a quality defense that is fully capable of making stops in the red-zone. That’s where Bass comes in, as he has produced double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. I’m expecting him to continue that momentum tonight.

TOURNAMENT LOOKS

Dalton Keene - TE - New England (DK: $1,400 / FD: $5,000)

This is a risky play, but Keene is dirt-cheap on both sites. There’s a chance he won’t give you much of anything, but Keene has seen the most snaps at TE for New England lately. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs this season, and Keene is a value filler who could pay dividends in large-field tournaments.

ADDITIONAL NOTES

Cam Newton (QB - NE) is playable in the FLEX on both sites, as we are hoping for a rushing touchdown (or two). It’s probably best to play him solo in cash games unless you are rolling with Byrd’s cheap salary on DraftKings. Jakobi Meyers (WR - NE) is another stacking extension for tournaments.

Sony Michel (RB - NE) and James White (RB - NE) could see more work (particularly the former) if Damien Harris - listed as questionable - doesn’t play. The game flow favors White, but Michel would certainly see more carries if Harris can’t go. Consider both of them interesting tournament choices who become fringe cash selections if Harris is out.

Let’s get down to some tournament options in the Buffalo passing game. New England loves to take away the best skill player from an opposing offense. That would be Stefon Diggs in this case. If Diggs can’t find room to work, Cole Beasley (WR - BUF) could benefit from more looks. His salary has climbed, but he’s an interesting “swerve” in tournaments … A similar narrative can be assigned to Dawson Knox (TE - BUF), although he’s more touchdown-dependent as a boom-or-bust DFS asset.

Nick Folk (K - NE) doesn’t have much upside, but he’s a decent value filler to round out a lineup. There’s not much sure-fire value on this slate, and that would especially hold true if John Brown doesn’t play. Pivoting to Folk in that instance wouldn’t be the worst consolation.

OddsMoney LinePoint SpreadTotal Points
Buffalo
+150+3.5O 54.5
Kansas City
-176-3.5U 54.5