Advertisement

NFL conference championships preview: Saints must stop LA's battering Rams and can Mahomes' Chiefs dethrone Tom Brady?

Rob Gronkowski stiff arms Ron Parker during the Patriots' 43-40 win over the Chiefs back in October - AP
Rob Gronkowski stiff arms Ron Parker during the Patriots' 43-40 win over the Chiefs back in October - AP

And then there were four. Not just any four, either - the four highest scoring teams in the NFL are also the last ones left standing. That's never happened before.

Our finalists are also all in the bottom half of the league for yards allowed this season, more proof that offense is king in the 2018 National Football League. They used to say defense wins championships, but we've watched the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys all fall. The New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots remain. One of them will be hoisting the Lombardi trophy in Atlanta in two weeks' time.

The playoffs have been a little bit of a disappointment so far, if we're honest. We were treated to the strongest slate of teams in recent memory, but we're yet to see a game you'd call a classic. The Saints' win over the Eagles last week has been the best of the bunch.

I'd bet on that changing dramatically this weekend. Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara up against Aaron Donald? Yes please. A Brady-Mahomes rematch with everything on the line? Pump it into my veins.

NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

How the Rams can win

Los Angeles Rams running back C.J. Anderson (35) celebrates with wide receiver Josh Reynolds (83) and wide receiver Robert Woods (17) and quarterback Jared Goff (16) after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in second quarter in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Credit: USA TODAY
Running back CJ Anderson celebrates a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys last week Credit: USA TODAY

The Rams are a smash mouth, ground and pound offense these days. It looks good on them. Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson battered the Cowboys' supposedly elite defense last week, rushing for a combined 238 yards and three touchdowns. Anderson has been an absolute dream pick-up for Sean McVay's team - he's run for a mouthwatering 422 yards and four touchdowns in his three games in Los Angeles, and his hard-nosed, between-the-tackles style is a perfect complement to Gurley's more electrifying approach. To think, only a few weeks ago he was cut by the Raiders.

The Rams are up against the league's second-best run defense in New Orleans. That battle is going to be absolutely key to their success on Sunday. McVay will also look to make heavy use of the play action and run-pass options which gave Jared Goff and the rest of the offense so much success early in the season. If McVay can find success with the running game early and force the Saints to adapt to try and shut it down, that will open up opportunities for Goff on deeper plays to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.

On defense, the Rams will look to Aaron Donald to make the difference. When don't they. He'll want to get after guard Andrus Peat, who isn't fully fit and struggled last week against the Eagles. But it's cornerback Aqib Talib who could be their most vital defensive man. Talib missed the 45-35 defeat to New Orleans earlier in the season, and it led to Marcus Peters getting absolutely roasted all night long. Peters is a better player with Talib in the side, but if the pair can't find a way to "guard Mike", well, we saw what Thomas did to this team in November, and to Philly a week ago.

How the Saints can win

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) carries on a 42-yard reception against Philadelphia Eagles free safety Avonte Maddox (29) in the first half of an NFL divisional playoff football game in New Orleans - Credit: AP
Michael Thomas torched the Eagles in last week's divisional round Credit: AP

Speaking of Michael Thomas let's remember exactly what he did to the Rams back in week nine. Number 13 caught 12 passes for a monster 211 yards and a touchdown, and averaged 17.6 yards per reception. Thomas was so unstoppable that every time the Saints got the the red zone the Rams defense couldn't take their eyes off him. The result? Brees threw four touchdown passes to four different receivers, and New Orleans won by 10.

Thomas elevated Brees' play last week against the Eagles rather than the other way around. It was about as good a game as you'll see from a receiver in the postseason. He'll absolutely fancy his chances of serving Peters a second dish of humble pie, especially if the Rams stick with their method of giving their cornerbacks one side of the field to guard, rather than have Talib attempt to follow Thomas.

Brees is at his best when he's getting the ball out of his hands quickly and can make reads on the defense. That means his offensive line, which has been consistently among the best all season, must win the battle with Aaron Donald. Brees didn't use Alvin Kamara a huge amount as a pass catcher last week, but I see him being a big factor on Sunday.

Sean Payton will know exactly how vital it is to put a throttle on Los Angeles runaway ground attack. That means a lot of work for linebackers Demario Davis and Alex Anzalone, and David Onyemata will need to step up after Sheldon Rankins' season ended in injury last weekend.

Prediction

I think the Saints are the best team in the NFL, and the Superdome crowd is a genuinely huge factor which can't be ignored. I'll go Saints 34 Rams 31.

AFC Championship: New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

How the Patriots can win

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) hands the ball to running back Sony Michel (26) during the second quarter in an AFC Divisional playoff football game at Gillette Stadium - Credit: USA TODAY
Tom Brady gave running back Sony Michel a heavy workload last week Credit: USA TODAY

The Patriots' performance last week was an NFL post-season masterclass. Sure, the Chargers never turned up to the party, but that's because Bill Belichick double bolted the castle gates, built a moat and raised the drawbridge. On offense I think they will use a similar strategy to the one which got them here. That means a lot of work for Sony Michel and quick checkdowns from Tom Brady to James White for those defense-debilitating eight-yard gains.

Michel had 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns last week, and the Chargers' run defense is far superior to Kansas City's. And while Brady may not look like he's doing all that much - he's not making the eye-opening throws his opposite number this week does with frightening regularity - he's playing with incredible precision. What makes Brady so brilliant is he knows exactly where and when to release to ball to give his receivers the best chance possible to hit gaps and gains yards after the catch. That's why Julian Edelman had such a big day against the Chargers - expect him to find joy again against this KC secondary.

That's the key for New England, really: their experience. Whatever happens on Sunday, even if Patrick Mahomes goes haywire and the Chiefs jump out to an early two-score lead, Belichick won't panic. The Pats head coach was asked if he could coach for Tyreek Hill's eye-watering speed earlier in the week, and in true Belichick fashion he replied: "What, by making people faster?" The thing is, if there's anyone who can scheme for Hill, for Travis Kelce, and even for Mahomes, it's Bill Belichick. The Patriots are underdogs for the first time in 70 games this Sunday, but who would bet against them making the bookies look like fools?

How the Chiefs can win

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls a play at the line of scrimmage during the first half of the team's NFL divisional football playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts in Kansas City, Mo. The popular, record-setting quarterback shattered just about every franchise passing record in his first season as a starter, and his down-home style has made him a fan-favorite. The Chiefs play the New England Patriots on Sunday for the AFC championship - Credit: AP
Patrick Mahomes, go do your thing Credit: AP

By Patrick Mahomes being the superhuman phenom we've all fallen in love with this season (why won't he text me back?). Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore has been excellent this year, but the rest of their secondary looks susceptible to the Chiefs' Swiss army knife attack. Could this be the game Kelce really cements his place as the new number one tight end in the NFL, with Rob Gronkowski watching from the opposing sideline? And can Hill repeat his rip-roaring 142-yard, three touchdown performance from the week six loss in New England? It's tough to see how the Patriots stop Mahomes from enabling either.

One man who always punished New England is Kareem Hunt - the star running back enjoyed almost unprecedented success against the pats, but is now long (and rightfully) gone from Kansas City. Damien Williams has done an excellent job of filling the gap, and he will need to roll again in the cold weather at Arrowhead on Sunday night.

For me though, the number one priority must be getting to Brady. Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston have been the saving grace of this Chiefs defense, and while the whole "get in Brady's face" shebang is a cliche at this point, there's also plenty of truth to it. They'll have to play the game of their lives to nullify this good Pats offensive line and get to Brady quick enough to hurry his quick passing game, but if they do that's a tasty recipe for success.

Prediction

I'm finding this one impossible to call. I'm flip-flopping every five minutes, and even finding myself swayed by the fact the game's going to be played under an eclipse which will turn the moon red over Arrowhead. Maybe it's a sign! The Patriots have traditionally struggled on the road in the playoffs, but I think the cold weather in Kansas City will actually suit their game better this week. 

I'm going to pick the Pats based on their experience, but I'm not sure I've ever been less certain of anything in my life. What a game this should be. Patriots 35 Chiefs 34.

 Odds courtesy of RedZone.bet